I wanted to throw in a few variables to look for as Wisconsin's election returns come in tomorrow night. The first is to remind you about where Wisconsin's votes come from. A little over 50% of the state's votes come from 10 counties.
1. Milwaukee County
2. The WOW Counties near next to Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington)
3. The BOW Counties in northeast Wisconsin (Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago)
4. Dane County
5. Racine and Kenosha Counties
The other 62 counties in the state account for slightly less than 50% of the votes. I also separate the suburbs of Milwaukee County from the City of Milwaukee, due to the large numbers of votes in Milwaukee County, and because of the different vote patterns in then City vs the burbs.
You can see that over time, the City of Milwaukee has gone from more than 9% of the state's voter turnout in the 2008 and 2012 elections (when Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee) to as little as 6.67% of the statewide vote in the 2022 elections. That's generally been replaced by a higher share from the WOW Counties, and Dane County. A dozen years ago, that would be something that might benefit Republicans statewide, as Democrats pulled around 70% of the votes from Dane County, and GOPs tended to draw around 70% of the votes in the WOW Counties.
But that hasn't been true after the rise of Donald Trump. On the Dem side, Dane County has not only accounted for a larger share of votes, but even more of those votes go to Democrats. Barack Obama got 71% of Dane County's votes in 2012, but Tony Evers got more than 78.5% of Dane's votes in 2022. In addition, the City of Milwaukee has stayed overwhelmingly Dem, and the rest of Milwaukee County has gone from a 50-50 split to nearly 60% voting for Dems.
On the flip side, the GOP advantage in the WOW Counties has shrunk to just over 60-40. And while Dems lost a lot from Obama's 2012 totals in the BOW Counties in 2016, they've gained most of that back, and have gotten over 45% of the vote in those 3 counties in every close statewide race since then.
So I would say that holding the GOP under 60% in the WOW Counties and Dems getting at least 46-47% in the BOW Counties would make Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin major favorites to win statewide.
With these gains in vote share in Dane County and lesser margins in those 6 larger GOP-leaning counties in the state happening, how haven't Dems continued to get comfortable 7-point wins like Obama got in 2012? Because Trump/GOPs have gained votes in the rest of the state. In 2012, Obama actually beat Romney for total votes in the other 62 counties in the state, but Trump dominated these places in 2016 to sneak out a win of less than 1%, and even though Joe Biden won back a bit of that in 2020, both he and Tony Evers didn't come close to Obama's numbers even as they were winning statewide. And Mandela Barnes fell short in 2022 because he couldn't get 42% of the vote outstate.
It's hard to believe in the Trump era, but there used be a Blue Wall for Democrats within the state in Western Wisconsin, and particularly Southwest Wisconsin. Look at how many counties in the western half of the state are blue in this map, indicating that they voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
Now compare to Joe Biden’s results in 2020.
It would be a very good sign for Dems if we see more of those counties in the western side of the state turn blue. Not only for Harris and Baldwin, but also for Rebecca Cooke’s chances against Small-D Van Orden in the 3rd Congressional District, and for several state Assembly and Senate seats that are up for grabs in that area.
Even with the dropoff, there are some larger-population counties on that “rest of Wisconsin” list that still consistently vote for Democrats. For example, Evers pulled in the neighborhood of 58% in Eau Claire, La Crosse and Rock counties in 2022, between 57 and 58% in the 3 main counties that border Lake Superior, and 53.5% in Stevens Point-centered Portage County. Any erosion there is going to be hard to make up elsewhere, but if Harris and/or Baldwin is winning 60% in those places, that spells “statewide blowout” for Dems, and a likely flip for the State Assembly.
On the other side, there are sizable red counties that also seem to give strong indicators of how things are going. Marathon, Manitowoc, Sheboygan, Chippewa, and Wood Counties all had Ron Johnson get 60% or more of their votes in 2022, but GOP governor candidate Tim Michels didn’t reach 60% in any of those counties, and often was around 57-58%. Not getting blown out in red, mid-size counties would seem to be an important item for statewide Dems, and also for Assembly candidates in new toss-up districts in Sheboygan, Wausau, and the Chippewa Valley.
Lastly, I think the totals in Racine and Kenosha are worth watching. Obama won both of those counties in 2012, but Clinton, Biden, Mandela Barnes, and even Evers have lost both of them since then. Harris and Baldwin don’t necessarily need to win either of these counties, but getting the Dem share back to 48% or more would be a big help.
There are plenty of other ways to break it down, but I think using the metrics of both vote total and "% of Dem vs GOP" are ways to understand how the election is shaping up. And it very well may be the case that by tracking these things, you'll know who's going to win in Wisconsin even before Milwaukee and other "central count" locations complete counting absentee ballots late tomorrow night.
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