ADP report shows another month with few jobs gained

With the short government shutdown of this week pushing back the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report until next Wednesday, the ADP payrolls survey got some extra attention (today). And for the first month of 2026, the ADP report served up a familiar story – anemic job growth.

US private employers added fewer positions than anticipated last month, according to the private payroll processor ADP, starting 2026 off on a downbeat note.

Private payrolls grew by just 22,000 in January, ADP said Wednesday, below economists' expectations of 45,000 positions….

"Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable."

Manufacturing helped lead the slowdown with a drop of 8,000 jobs in January, according to ADP, less than one year out from President Trump's sweeping tariffs and promises to restore positions to the sector. Professional and business services also continued to decline, while construction added roles. Losses across the economy would’ve appeared even more stark if not for the healthcare and education sectors posting positive growth, with 74,000 new positions gained in January.

In addition, UW-Madison’s Menzie Chinn notes that ADP’s listing of 398,000 private sector jobs in 2025 was a significant downward revision from what had been previously reported, and those revisions say private sector jobs declined for 4 straight months between February and June before having a slight recovery in the 7 months since then.

And one sector that was a significant job-loser in 2025 was in manufacturing, which has been shedding jobs in numerous surveys since the start of 2023, and continued to slide last year.

One reason the BLS’s job report was set to get extra attention this week was that it would also include their annual benchmark revisions for jobs numbers. Based on information from the “gold standard” Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), it looks like the “official” jobs numbers are going to end up quite a bit lower than what was originally reported – and those numbers are already the worst in a non-COVID year since (2010?).

Now we have to wait until next week for that report to hit, which will seem to extend the bad jobs news beyond Friday. Everyday people already think this is a rough jobs market with wages barely keeping up with costs, which helps explain why US consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level in 12 years last month.

But bits of data are always welcome for me to show whether this gloominess is just bad vibes about the repressive dimwits running our country, or if there’s something in the real economy that is driving those feelings. And if the strong “economic growth” numbers that may be reported end up being concentrated in a few industries with the benefits only going to a privileged few.