Thursday, July 23, 2026
A few thoughts on the Dem Guv primary race
2 weeks ago, the Democratic primary in the Governor’s race seemed to have come into focus.
State Rep. Francesca Hong had a solid group of support but a question as to whether she led and how many more voters she could attract.
Former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes seemed to be stagnating and possibly fading out, and current Lt. Gov Sara Rodriguez was on the rise as the alternative to both of these candidates. I personally was behind Rodriguez and had the yard sign out.
Milwaukee Co Exec David Crowley had just dropped out and was endorsing Rodriguez, and State Sen. Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan were at the bottom of the pack and seemed to be on the verge of dropping out.
And now….here we are today. Rodriguez is out, the sign is out of our yard, Crowley is back in, and “undecided” is still winning this week’s Marquette Law School Poll of 414 Democratic primary voters.
With Rodriguez out and Crowley back in, this poll was already out of date by the time its results went public this Wednesday. As a result, Charles Franklin and company say there will be a do-over poll that will release its results next Wednesday, which makes me curious why our media and Wisconsin politics put so much creedence as the MU Poll being the voice of God in the first place.
Sure, I worry Hong might drag down some downticket Dem candidates if she was the nominee. She and Barnes are the Dem candidates that would trigger the most dumb white Wisconsinites and other low-info voters, and you’d see the most dishonest and racist GOP ads we have ever seen in this state (yes, worse than what was dumped on Barnes in 2022 vs Ron Johnson). I do think Hong or Barnes can win in November – but I also think they’re the 2 candidates that give Tom Tiffany his best chance to win.
What’s making me frantic about the situation is less the prospect of Francesca Hong having a base of strong support or Mandela Barnes slipping into a nomination despite having zero juice among anyone paying attention. It’s more than there is no indication whatsoever as to where this race is going, and who else can win.
It’s a simple math problem. If you think that Fran tops out her support at around 40%, then it becomes harder with 4 other candidates in the race to get one of them over 40% to beat her. But if there are 3 other candidates it’s easier to get one to 41%, with 2 others it’s very possible, and she’d likely lose a 1-on-1. But in the absence of polling or other signals that yes, THIS one person is the Fran Alternative, voters are left scrambling and confused.
Am I supposed to get behind Crowley because Governor Evers and some SE Wis local officials endorsed him, or is there a reason he didn’t catch on before he dropped out, and that he is being a self-centered fool that is wasting all of our time? And one that will be unfairly attacked for the budget deficits and many needs that still remain in Milwaukee County (much of which isn't Crowley's fault, but GOPs and some low-info voters won't care about that).
Should I get behind Roys, who is solidly progressive with experience in the Legislature, and is the type of candidate who Republicans have no game plan against – a smart white mother who doesn’t put up with their misdirecting BS. But Kelda can’t even get to 5% in almost any poll, and was at 1% in this week's Marquette Poll. So is there any point to getting behind someone that can’t win? She’s got 1 week – put up or shut up, Kelda.
Brennan is a different category, because his “more boring and corporate Evers” routine isn’t connecting, and the money he was supposed to get from the MKE corporates and other insider connections hasn’t really happened. Brennan also just angered the WisDems’ Black Caucus by running an ad saying that the Guv candidates Of Color couldn’t win, but say the same for the lower-polling Roys. SO WHY IS HE STILL IN THIS RACE? If there’s one candidate that should drop, it’s Brennan. He has no lane.
If you think that Fran Hong must be stopped in order to increase Dems’ chances of winning a trifecta in November and getting real change done in this state, I get that (I’m not terrified by Fran winning the primary, but it’s not my preferred outcome). But there doesn’t seem to be an agreed-upon strategy as to how to do that, and there is no one candidate that voters or other candidates are consolidating around to do that.
And that clarity of what would (or would not) happen by choosing a certain candidate is what we need. In the words of the late great Ric Ocasek - JUST TELL ME WHAT TO DO!!!
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I think another big unknown at this point, is the effect of Republicans 'crossing over' and voting as 'Dems' for Hong, and how many percentage points that could potentially add. I know I will be, and I've tried to spread the word far and wide to my relatives and friends in Central and Northern Wisconsin to do the same... A few didn't know that was possible, so we MAGA Rethugs are definitely working to spread the word, LOLOL!!
ReplyDeleteEverything I've ever seen indicates the number of dweebs like you that try this ratfuck stuff in elections are very small.
DeleteAnd you aren't nearly as clever as you think. Nothing's changing what total garbage Tom Tiffany is or that gas will be over $4 in our state in a week or 2 and stay there, or that people's health care premiums will go to the sky.
It's really a matter of whether Tiffany or the GOP have any chance of any power, or no chance whatsoever.
There’s a simple reason that even at this very late stage, almost half of Democratic voters are undecided: all our choices stink.
ReplyDeleteIf the Democratic Party was serious about keeping the governorship, one of two things would’ve happened long ago: 1.) Josh Kaul would be running for governor instead of a third term as attorney general, or 2.) Tammy Baldwin would be running (à la Amy Klobuchar). Instead we are stuck with a bunch of no-names and a failed rerun.
My wife and I were planning on voting for Rodriguez but her campaign was frankly underwhelming from the start. Now that she’s out my wife is warming up to Hong, but I still can’t do it. I can’t believe I’m typing these words, but I’m beginning to wonder if Mandela Barnes will be sneaking into a last-second victory…again. He may actually be our best bet. Known statewide…liberal (not radical or moderate)…and while he did lose in 2022, it was by a razor-thin margin. But sooooo boring.
I guess I’ve officially joined the undecideds. And may very well stay that way until Election Day.
Minnesconsin Tom
I'd say all the choices have flaws - Hong and Barnes will be caricatured and worse by GOPs. Crowley has things he still
Deleteneeds to clean up in MKE, and have to overcome the general anti-Milwaukee mentality that a lot of mediocre white people have here. Brennan is a boring bureaucrat with little connection to voters, and Kelda is 0 for 2 in primaries beyond the State Legislature.
For whatever reason, Josh Kaul didn't want to step up, Mark Pocan (the best Guv candidate WisDems could have) wants to stay in Congress with Dems taking over the House, and Godlewski wants to use Lt Guv to springboard to Senator, I guess. But it still doesn't excuse the non-Hong group of candidates for not using more media to get their name out to voters. Fran has out worked them, and she seems steadier than the "pros" on what she wants to do.
Definitely not filling out my absentee ballot until at least next week, if not the one after. Need to see more polls and data, and maybe who steps up in the debate.
I stumbled upon your bluesky account, and then your blog here, looking for anyone from WI who had an opinion on who to coalesce behind against Hong. I am not against Hong, I think her story is compelling and we need more people in politics with a genuine motivation for improving things (ditto for Kelda Roys). I do agree with you that too many people are going to eat up the “Hong is a defund the police communist” message (frankly they ran a similar campaign against Barnes in 22 too, and kinda worked, which is why I don’t view him as a strong candidate now either despite the MU Law poll suggesting he is).
ReplyDeleteI am very much a pragmatic progressive - would love it if someone like Hong could be governor - but you and I both know darn well if Hong is the candidate our hopes for the trifecta are basically gone. Maybe we can squeeze out the senate majority… all while the top line is going to be 50.1-49.9 one way or the other. Too close for comfort when republicans are itching to trash are schools (and everything else that gets state funding really) again. Court can’t do anything about that one.
Thanks for the post, I’m bookmarking to check back and read more in the future 👍
Thanks for the thoughts, David! My main concerns about Fran is the downticket effect more than Fran's own candidacy. I think WisDems take the Senate in almost any scenario (the seats are very Dem-leaning this cycle), but if the Guv's race is a GOP win or even a Dem win by 1 or 2, they likely can't get the Assembly. And if this state wants to claw back the damage of the last 15 years, they need to get all 3.
DeleteI think Kelda is the best chance to win in November by the 6 or 7 points that WisDems should win by in a Dem +6-7 year nationwide, which would give the trifecta we need. But obviously that doesn't matter if Kelda is pulling 3% of the primary electorate, so she needs to move up or move out in the next 7 days.
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