Job growth surpassed expectations in October, new data showed Friday, with the US economy adding 165,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Job growth in the previous two months was stronger than initially reported, with a total of 84,000 jobs added: August was revised upwards by 53,000 to 186,000; and September gains totaled 60,000, up from 29,000.This means that job growth over the last 3 months is now near 2-year highs, with a clear upswing in the last couple of months. There also was a positive move in average hourly wages, as the originally reported 0.1% increase for hourly wages in September got revised up to 0.3%, and October had another increase of 0.4%. Which means nominal hourly wages are now at their best 3-month growth rate in more than a year. So if you think the Bureau of Labor Statistics were rigging these numbers to make Trump look good, these revisions indicate their timing sure sucks about it. Not that I think it would have made a big difference in Tuesday's results (costs were still generally rising higher than wages in these months), but I'll be interested to see if this makes consumer spending a bit more resilient than we thought it would be as 2026 ends. The jobs report also featured a rebound in some key sectors, with the top two sectors listed here seeing especially strong gains in health care and consulting services. There's also the gain of 19,000 manfuacturing jobs, which had been hinted at in recent reports from ISM as well as other data, and it continues an upswing in manufacturing jobs that started a few months ago after multiple years of losses. The drop in construction jobs may just be a one-month blip after that sector has boomed in recent years. But it's worth keeping an eye on, given that overall US construction spending dropped by 1.9% in September, and residential construction dropped by 5.5%. So are higher interest rates and crowding out that data centers are causing starting to show up in a lack of home-building? I'm not sure if this October report is indicative of the AI Bubble at its peak, given how the NASDAQ has fallen nearly 11% in the last month, and the major voter backlash against tech businesses and the speed of buildouts in the recent midterms. Or is this indicative that businesses finally have to hire after reaping the benefits and higher profits from significant worker productivity gains over the last few years? I don't see these better jobs number as showing that we have had some kind of boom in the overall US economy, and the typical American still is struggling to pay increasingly expensive bills. But the lack of layoffs and increased output certainly means the US is not in recession, and it won't be until we see consumer spending slow down and/or more people start filing for unemployment.
Ventings from a guy with an unhealthy interest in budgets, policy, the dismal science, life in the Upper Midwest, and brilliant beverages.
Saturday, November 7, 2026
A very good jobs report and better revisions means things might not be as bad for US workers.
After a massive Dem win where economic concerns and inequality played a major role, Friday's US jobs report offered data that seemed to conflict with what the voters were saying.
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