Another month, another strong employment report, this one indicating an additional 244,000 jobs were created in April, , and 268,000 in the private sector. It marks a significant barrier, as employment bumped higher than the level it was at in April 2009, which was one month after...the stimulus bill was passed.
Sure, some may say we should have blowout growth after such a deep recession, but if you look at the recessions in the early 1990s and early 2000s (the two since high interest rates went away and taxes were lowered in the '80s), you'll see it takes a lot longer for the jobs to come back. When businesses get rewarded for hoarding profits and gambling over the disinicentive of high income tax rates on retained earnings and capital gains, this is the obvious result. And a place that should be looked at if we're ever going to be serious about tackling our deficit. Despite the fragile situation of $4 gas and the similar bubbles in commodities, the real economy has been moving along just fine, regardless of how badly the Congressional GOP wants to shut it down for 2012 electoral reasons.
With that in mind, I don't want to hear Scott Walker taking any credit for increased employment in Wisconsin since his reign of error began 4 months ago. The new jobs numbers for the state should be out in a week or so, and we'll see if Walker's Admin can start to match the increases this state had under Jim Doyle and the Dems last year.
Based on the increase in the U.S.'s job market in the last 4 months, Wisconsin should be at +14,230 jobs for the year to be keeping pace. Now, that's not a high bar to clear, as anything better than a loss of 4,600 jobs keeps Wisconsin above pace, but it's nowhere near as impressive as the state gaining jobs while the U.S. was losing 1.27 million jobs from 4/09 to 4/10. And the Doyle/ Dem recovery will be a big reason behind what I bet will be a surprise revenue report coming out this week from the LFB that'll show we never needed to "adjust" the budget for 2009-11, and that our projected budget deficit is nowhere near as "broke" as the Sykesists have tried to lie to you about.
But all this good news will start getting reversed when the budget cutbacks hit. Right now, it's been all talk and no real change (kinda like Scotty's threats to lay off state employees and prosecutors), but if the WisGOPs in the Legislature do even half of what Scotty wants in the budget, the domino effects will be serious at the local government and private sector level, and I'd have a hard time believing Wisconsin stays above trend. Those declines should be hitting in early Fall. Just in time for Walker's recall petitions to go out....
But wait, we have building projects to do that'll help employment, including the reprogrammed high-speed rail money, right? Uhhh, not quite. Amazing how striking stupid poses to score political points tends to be a strategy in getting those people to help you out. (The Confederate states of Texas and Virginia are finding this out the hard way on their requests for FEMA disaster aid as well- guess ya'll ain't so tough when random bad things strike, are ya?)
And along with Scotty's blundering on getting the rail upgraded, something you might NOT know about our rail budget is that Walker and the Joint Finance Committee are going to shell out more state dollars for Amtrak this year, as the JFC passed Alternative 1, which increases state payments to the Hiawatha line by more than $5 million for 2011-13. Why the increase? Not low ridership, as the paper points out that "ridership revenue has been greater than expected" over the last 2 years on the Milwaukee-Chicago route, and that WisDOT will save at least half a million in subisdies from the $6.44 million subisdy budgeted for the service. The line will even cost less to run in the upcoming 2 years, as the subsidy is projected to be less than $5 million in each year (compare that to highway maintenance, and it's a drop in the bucket).
So why the extra state funds? Check out Point 8 of the LFB paper. Once the FRA yanked the $800 million high-speed rail project due to Scotty's big mouth, they also told the DOT that the Talgo train facility and maintenance costs wouldn't be covered at 80% as well, leaving the state on the hook for all of it. BRILLIANT!
I'm still waiting for a billboard to go up on I-94 west of Milwaukee that reads "Wish you had the train now?" Because much like a lot of other things with Scott Walker, the more you look into what he's doing, the more foolish and disastrous he and his backers look. See you at the Capitol on Saturday to drive the point home yet again.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Mifflin Street revelries and reflections
Yesterday was quite a frenetic day in downtown Madison, in addition to the typical Madison Farmer's Market, you had the Crazylegs Run, motorcyclists heading up another well-attended anti-Walker rally at the Capitol, and lastly, tens of thousands at the annual Mifflin Street Block Party.
As a decent Wisconsinite, I dropped by the motorcycle rally for a bit, and grabbed a couple of pops at nearby taverns during a bar crawl that's part of Madison Craft Beer Week. Then made a couple of drop-throughs on Mifflin Street. My first go-round was around 1pm, and the streets were already flooded with people, many well on their way past a good time, but relatively tame with a live DJ stirring people up in a goood way. It reminded me of the Mifflins in my college times in the mid-'90s, with lots of drinking inn the street and people bouncing from house to house. Only difference was we didn't have beer vendors serving tall boys- which comes in handy because you can only get single cans of import beers at downtown liquor stores (really dumb law, by the way, only encourages 30-packs of crap to be bought).
Well, I went back to Mifflin about 3:30, and found people beyond shit-faced. Being in my 30s, I'm used to adult drunk (goofy and stupid but somewhat in-character), don't like but understand college drunk ("I don't know where I am and I'm shooting off my mouth, but I'm having a good time"), and Bourbon Street drunk ("I'm too drunk to say anything and I won't remember this at all"). A lot of these kids were at the Bourbon Street drunk level, and when you're barely at "adult buzzed" level observing this, it goes from the "Cool, carzy time" to "Wow, this is messed up."
That didn't change when I wanded up toward State Street to eventually catch a bus on my way home. Bars were jammed at 4pm, and I had to help a freshman find his way back to the dorms after he was falling off of park benches, losing keys, and stumbling out into Johnson St. I get that these things do happen, because I was that kid a few times when I was his age, but it's still not so much fun to see.
Apparently, it was even worse than drunks I observed having about ten too many, as 20 Mifflanders got taken to detox, and 2 people got stabbed. I note that the two stabbings were in parking lots of houses behind Mifflin Street, which have become this crazy wasteland of bottles, cans, and lots of college students and others trying to stay away from the eyes of security (who were patrolling the streets). This might be the biggest thing to look into changing next year, as those lots seem to be prime places for things to get out of hand with much less of a chance of the perps being stopped in time. The cops in the streets seemed to be handling things OK, and were visible enough to be contacted in case something was going to start breaking out (this helped last year when I saw a guy get decked on Bassett and me and a couple of others flagged down a cop who found the guy and got him sent off). But the behind-the-scenes action in the parking lots and on Dayton and West Washington Streets may have to also be looked at. Costs a bit more money, but may well be worth it.
I don't want to see Mifflin go away, but it's going to have a lot more structure next year, based on Mayor Soglin's comments in the article. I'd like to see some volunteers also intermingle in the crowd, as I think some college-age students don't want to deal with cops out of fear of underage drinking tickets and their general lack of understanding about handling bad situations. It's worth looking into.
Now I'm off to stand in line for an event that also has lots of beer, but none of the mayhem and scary-level drunkenness- the tickets for Great Taste of the Midwest. Maybe this says something about people who drink quality beers over quantity ones- a economical tip that college students would be wise to learn. Wish me luck.
As a decent Wisconsinite, I dropped by the motorcycle rally for a bit, and grabbed a couple of pops at nearby taverns during a bar crawl that's part of Madison Craft Beer Week. Then made a couple of drop-throughs on Mifflin Street. My first go-round was around 1pm, and the streets were already flooded with people, many well on their way past a good time, but relatively tame with a live DJ stirring people up in a goood way. It reminded me of the Mifflins in my college times in the mid-'90s, with lots of drinking inn the street and people bouncing from house to house. Only difference was we didn't have beer vendors serving tall boys- which comes in handy because you can only get single cans of import beers at downtown liquor stores (really dumb law, by the way, only encourages 30-packs of crap to be bought).
Well, I went back to Mifflin about 3:30, and found people beyond shit-faced. Being in my 30s, I'm used to adult drunk (goofy and stupid but somewhat in-character), don't like but understand college drunk ("I don't know where I am and I'm shooting off my mouth, but I'm having a good time"), and Bourbon Street drunk ("I'm too drunk to say anything and I won't remember this at all"). A lot of these kids were at the Bourbon Street drunk level, and when you're barely at "adult buzzed" level observing this, it goes from the "Cool, carzy time" to "Wow, this is messed up."
That didn't change when I wanded up toward State Street to eventually catch a bus on my way home. Bars were jammed at 4pm, and I had to help a freshman find his way back to the dorms after he was falling off of park benches, losing keys, and stumbling out into Johnson St. I get that these things do happen, because I was that kid a few times when I was his age, but it's still not so much fun to see.
Apparently, it was even worse than drunks I observed having about ten too many, as 20 Mifflanders got taken to detox, and 2 people got stabbed. I note that the two stabbings were in parking lots of houses behind Mifflin Street, which have become this crazy wasteland of bottles, cans, and lots of college students and others trying to stay away from the eyes of security (who were patrolling the streets). This might be the biggest thing to look into changing next year, as those lots seem to be prime places for things to get out of hand with much less of a chance of the perps being stopped in time. The cops in the streets seemed to be handling things OK, and were visible enough to be contacted in case something was going to start breaking out (this helped last year when I saw a guy get decked on Bassett and me and a couple of others flagged down a cop who found the guy and got him sent off). But the behind-the-scenes action in the parking lots and on Dayton and West Washington Streets may have to also be looked at. Costs a bit more money, but may well be worth it.
I don't want to see Mifflin go away, but it's going to have a lot more structure next year, based on Mayor Soglin's comments in the article. I'd like to see some volunteers also intermingle in the crowd, as I think some college-age students don't want to deal with cops out of fear of underage drinking tickets and their general lack of understanding about handling bad situations. It's worth looking into.
Now I'm off to stand in line for an event that also has lots of beer, but none of the mayhem and scary-level drunkenness- the tickets for Great Taste of the Midwest. Maybe this says something about people who drink quality beers over quantity ones- a economical tip that college students would be wise to learn. Wish me luck.
Monday, April 18, 2011
More taxing thoughts
First, read this excellent report by Scot Ross and the folks at the Institute for Wisconsin's Future. The whole thing is a great study, but a few key takeaways.
The many property tax exemptions for businesses means normal residential taxpayers have to pay more of it, as part of it notes "nationwide, the average share that the business sector pays toward property taxes is 40% of the total property tax revenues.17 In Wisconsin however, the share that the business sector pays is only 24.4%." The upshot is that property taxes hit lower and middle income people hard. "As a percent of income, the bottom 20% of Wisconsin taxpayers pay 76% more [property tax] than the wealthiest one percent of taxpayers and the middle 75% of taxpayers pay 111% more than the wealthiest one percent." On top of this, higher-income earners also get a bigger tax break from paying property taxes, since they usually have more expensive homes that allow for a bigger write-off, and a higher federal income tax rate that allows them to get a higher deduction for each dollar of property tax they pay.
It also does a good job illustrating how sales and excise taxes hit the poor more than the rich. The top 1% to 5% of income earners only shell out 169% of their incomes in sales and excise tax, while the bottom 20% have those taxes take up four than 4 times that amount of income, at 6.7%. (Imagine if we ever raised the beer tax past 1969 levels!)
Corporations have gotten the better bargain when it comes to income taxes as well, as "according to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue, 66.5% of corporations pay no taxes and only 20% pay over a thousand in taxes." Why? "There are 33 different tax credits available to Wisconsin corporations, including many aimed at sectors that are already experiencing record profits and don't need a tax credit." The Dem-led Wisconsin Legislature was able to cllose some loopholes in 2009, and that, combined with a huge increase in profits has raised corporate tax revenues by over 42% compared to the same time 2 years ago, but it's still only around 7% of total revenues, and given what corporations get away with in property tax exemptions, the individual is still getting the shorter straw.
To add to this report, there's also a study showing that the top 400 income earners pay all of 17% of their income in federal income taxes, down from 26% in 1992, and these people also pay a fraction of the 6.2% you and I have been paying for Social Security. While you may hear the whiny canard about 45% of people not paying any federal income taxes in 2010, those people conveniently don't mention the Social Security, excise and sales taxes that hit lower incomes hard.
The numbers help explain why Scott Walker's budget proposals to shift taxes from corporations onto lower-income individuals and college students is a sick policy. It's quite literally a feudal mentality that allows the lords and day-trading gamblers to benefit off the backs of people who actually do work. And it's a hidden theme behind the protests that have been going on at the Capitol, because people see the two-tier society at work, and are tired of it.
The many property tax exemptions for businesses means normal residential taxpayers have to pay more of it, as part of it notes "nationwide, the average share that the business sector pays toward property taxes is 40% of the total property tax revenues.17 In Wisconsin however, the share that the business sector pays is only 24.4%." The upshot is that property taxes hit lower and middle income people hard. "As a percent of income, the bottom 20% of Wisconsin taxpayers pay 76% more [property tax] than the wealthiest one percent of taxpayers and the middle 75% of taxpayers pay 111% more than the wealthiest one percent." On top of this, higher-income earners also get a bigger tax break from paying property taxes, since they usually have more expensive homes that allow for a bigger write-off, and a higher federal income tax rate that allows them to get a higher deduction for each dollar of property tax they pay.
It also does a good job illustrating how sales and excise taxes hit the poor more than the rich. The top 1% to 5% of income earners only shell out 169% of their incomes in sales and excise tax, while the bottom 20% have those taxes take up four than 4 times that amount of income, at 6.7%. (Imagine if we ever raised the beer tax past 1969 levels!)
Corporations have gotten the better bargain when it comes to income taxes as well, as "according to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue, 66.5% of corporations pay no taxes and only 20% pay over a thousand in taxes." Why? "There are 33 different tax credits available to Wisconsin corporations, including many aimed at sectors that are already experiencing record profits and don't need a tax credit." The Dem-led Wisconsin Legislature was able to cllose some loopholes in 2009, and that, combined with a huge increase in profits has raised corporate tax revenues by over 42% compared to the same time 2 years ago, but it's still only around 7% of total revenues, and given what corporations get away with in property tax exemptions, the individual is still getting the shorter straw.
To add to this report, there's also a study showing that the top 400 income earners pay all of 17% of their income in federal income taxes, down from 26% in 1992, and these people also pay a fraction of the 6.2% you and I have been paying for Social Security. While you may hear the whiny canard about 45% of people not paying any federal income taxes in 2010, those people conveniently don't mention the Social Security, excise and sales taxes that hit lower incomes hard.
The numbers help explain why Scott Walker's budget proposals to shift taxes from corporations onto lower-income individuals and college students is a sick policy. It's quite literally a feudal mentality that allows the lords and day-trading gamblers to benefit off the backs of people who actually do work. And it's a hidden theme behind the protests that have been going on at the Capitol, because people see the two-tier society at work, and are tired of it.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Taxing thoughts
Just an excellent article on how the rich benefit from our tax code. Read it, especially the debunking of lie on how "the poor don't pay taxes."
There's 2 other notes I want to bring up ahead of tax time:
1. Capital gains are a disprpoportionate amount of the rich's income, because they have the extra cash lying around to gamble with. So when those are cut below incomes, it's a giveaway to the rich. And nothing more.
2. Property and state income taxes can be written off on your federal 1040. So if you're in a state like Wisconsin that has disproportionately high property and income taxes vs. others, the rich get a bigger tax break as a result. Nice, huh?
There's 2 other notes I want to bring up ahead of tax time:
1. Capital gains are a disprpoportionate amount of the rich's income, because they have the extra cash lying around to gamble with. So when those are cut below incomes, it's a giveaway to the rich. And nothing more.
2. Property and state income taxes can be written off on your federal 1040. So if you're in a state like Wisconsin that has disproportionately high property and income taxes vs. others, the rich get a bigger tax break as a result. Nice, huh?
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Scotty, it ain't working!
Couple of interesting state economic reports out today that continue to show that our state was and is nowhere near as bad off as Scott Walker and the Sykesists try to portray it.
First of all, Wisconsin's revenue situation continues to beat expectations. Individual income tax is up almost 10% year-to-date, and sales and corporate taxes have also stayed strong, so the state is running 6.6% ahead of last year, with a late Easter to come.
This extends the above-trend gains, so much so that if the 6.6% improvement holds up for the last 3 months, the state's revenues would be $240 MILLION over the original projections. Let me say that again, $240 MILLION.
When you put that together with the deficit-adding budget "repair" bill passed last week, the state of Wisconsin would end up with a surplus of over $220 million dollars BEFORE the extra money from state employees is counted. And then that surplus will go toward reducing the next budget's deficit, as well as give a higher revenue base to grow from in a more inflationary time. "BROKE" MY A$$!
Also, the new state unemployment numbers came in for March, and at first glance, it looks pretty good. Unemployment stayed well below the national average at 7.4%, and 9,100 jobs were added on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Sounds like things are really turning around under Scott Walker, right? Ehhh, not quite. When you grab the figures from the start of the year and compare them to what we had last year under Jim Doyle, it doesn't measure up.
Seasonally adjusted
January - March 2011- +18,800 jobs
January - March 2010- +23,300 jobs
Private sector
January - March 2011- +14,000
January - March 2010- +29,500 (that would be more than double)
Year-over-year private sector
March 2010 - March 2011 - +32,000
January 2010 - January 2011 - +47,500 (nearly 50% higher)
And we're not even mentioning the fact that there are actually 43,000 FEWER jobs in Wisconsin compared to December, but the seasonal adjustment accounts for that with the Holiday shopping season ending and construction season not in full swing. But with that in mind, Scotty better hope $4 gas doesn't kill Wisconsin tourism this Summer, because you'll start to see this + on jobs turn into a - really fast.
Jobs being lost here while the economy has been turning around nationwide would probably be enough to guarantee the recall, if it isn't baked in the cake already. Keep an eye on this the next 2 months, because it's going to prove Scotty, the Kochs, WMC and the paid hacks that back them to be even more dishonest and wrong than we already know them to be.
And way to be OWNED on the Hill today and embarass our state yet again, Gov, Dropout. Good thing that's as close to D.C. and national relevance as you'll ever get again. Bonbby Jindal respoinding to Obama's State of the Union thought that was a pathetic performance.
First of all, Wisconsin's revenue situation continues to beat expectations. Individual income tax is up almost 10% year-to-date, and sales and corporate taxes have also stayed strong, so the state is running 6.6% ahead of last year, with a late Easter to come.
This extends the above-trend gains, so much so that if the 6.6% improvement holds up for the last 3 months, the state's revenues would be $240 MILLION over the original projections. Let me say that again, $240 MILLION.
When you put that together with the deficit-adding budget "repair" bill passed last week, the state of Wisconsin would end up with a surplus of over $220 million dollars BEFORE the extra money from state employees is counted. And then that surplus will go toward reducing the next budget's deficit, as well as give a higher revenue base to grow from in a more inflationary time. "BROKE" MY A$$!
Also, the new state unemployment numbers came in for March, and at first glance, it looks pretty good. Unemployment stayed well below the national average at 7.4%, and 9,100 jobs were added on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Sounds like things are really turning around under Scott Walker, right? Ehhh, not quite. When you grab the figures from the start of the year and compare them to what we had last year under Jim Doyle, it doesn't measure up.
Seasonally adjusted
January - March 2011- +18,800 jobs
January - March 2010- +23,300 jobs
Private sector
January - March 2011- +14,000
January - March 2010- +29,500 (that would be more than double)
Year-over-year private sector
March 2010 - March 2011 - +32,000
January 2010 - January 2011 - +47,500 (nearly 50% higher)
And we're not even mentioning the fact that there are actually 43,000 FEWER jobs in Wisconsin compared to December, but the seasonal adjustment accounts for that with the Holiday shopping season ending and construction season not in full swing. But with that in mind, Scotty better hope $4 gas doesn't kill Wisconsin tourism this Summer, because you'll start to see this + on jobs turn into a - really fast.
Jobs being lost here while the economy has been turning around nationwide would probably be enough to guarantee the recall, if it isn't baked in the cake already. Keep an eye on this the next 2 months, because it's going to prove Scotty, the Kochs, WMC and the paid hacks that back them to be even more dishonest and wrong than we already know them to be.
And way to be OWNED on the Hill today and embarass our state yet again, Gov, Dropout. Good thing that's as close to D.C. and national relevance as you'll ever get again. Bonbby Jindal respoinding to Obama's State of the Union thought that was a pathetic performance.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Yep, wasn't just Madison surrounded by reality on April 5
Taking a look at the alleged vote totals from the Supreme Court race shows a state that's clearly going in two directions. But as a proud Madison graduate and resident, I must take the time to point out yet again that suburban Milwaukee votes every bit as differently from the rest of the state as Madison allegedly is.
Much like the last time I visited this issue, I'm going to combine Washington, Waukesha, and Ozaukee Counties into "Wauzaukington County", since they're all basically the same place, anyway. So you pump in the results so far in the Supreme Court race , and I'll even give Kathy Nickolaus' double-entry of Brookfield ballots the benefit of the doubt. Not surprisingly, Madison has a disproportionate amount of votes, due to the center of the protests being here and because of a County Exec race and a very close Madison Mayor's race. But so do the suburb boys, with a lot fewer local races.
Dane County- 182,201 total votes - 12.17% of all votes
Wauzaukington County - 194,841 total votes - 13.02% of all votes
And when you go further, you find these two areas basically canceled each other out in who they voted for.
Dane County- +84,929 Kloppenburg (73.3%)
Wauzaukington County- +92,929 Prosser (73.8%)
So that 8,000 vote advantage from Prosser more than makes up for the alleged current difference of 7,304. Heck, if you didn't know better, you'd swear they were just matching each other, wouldn't ya? Almost like a GOP county clerk was working to match Dane County's votes any chance she could. :P
"But Jake, what about Milwaukee, which'll skew things for the more liberal candidate?"
Glad you asked, because if you want to count Milwaukee County's unofficial numbers, we might as well also include the other 3 counties in the SEWRPC area (Walworth, Racine and Kenosha), and throw in Sheboygan for good measure, as they're in the Milwaukee media market and well within listening distance for Milwaukee hate radio. You'll "interestingly" note that Milwaukee County's barely more than Madison or Wauzaukington County in vote totals, despite having nearly twice the population, and that you get a similar mirror image.
Milwaukee County - 227,577 votes +29,711 Kloppenburg (56.5%)
Other 4 counties- 135,428 votes +17,296 Prosser (56.4%)
So with these two samples of Madison and the Milwaukee area, we have nearly half of the state's total votes, and a net difference of Kloppenburg +4,415. Conversely, this means in the other half of the state, Prosser allegedly won by a little over 11,700 votes out of over 750,000 (or by 1.55%).
If you win the "real" Wisconsin by less than 2% in a non-partisan election, I would hardly call that any kind of big-time victory or mandate, particularly when your opponent was completely unknown 2 months ago and you've been in elective office for over 30 years, as Prosser has. So if Prosser is lucky enough to survive a statewide recount without more corrupt discrepancies throwing out his votes, I wouldn't exactly call this an example of "Madison vs. the rest of the state." But then again, when you're Scotty Walker-sha, why should we expect you and your 262 area code backers have a clue what the rest of Wisconsin really thinks?
And trust me, that slam on the 370,000+ Kloppenburg voters that are from outside of the Milwaukee area and Dane County will remember when we recall you this time next year, Scotty. And so will the hundreds of thousands of others that may have sat out this election. Amazing how this dimwit forgets that over 4 million Wisconsinites never voted for him....and never will.
Much like the last time I visited this issue, I'm going to combine Washington, Waukesha, and Ozaukee Counties into "Wauzaukington County", since they're all basically the same place, anyway. So you pump in the results so far in the Supreme Court race , and I'll even give Kathy Nickolaus' double-entry of Brookfield ballots the benefit of the doubt. Not surprisingly, Madison has a disproportionate amount of votes, due to the center of the protests being here and because of a County Exec race and a very close Madison Mayor's race. But so do the suburb boys, with a lot fewer local races.
Dane County- 182,201 total votes - 12.17% of all votes
Wauzaukington County - 194,841 total votes - 13.02% of all votes
And when you go further, you find these two areas basically canceled each other out in who they voted for.
Dane County- +84,929 Kloppenburg (73.3%)
Wauzaukington County- +92,929 Prosser (73.8%)
So that 8,000 vote advantage from Prosser more than makes up for the alleged current difference of 7,304. Heck, if you didn't know better, you'd swear they were just matching each other, wouldn't ya? Almost like a GOP county clerk was working to match Dane County's votes any chance she could. :P
"But Jake, what about Milwaukee, which'll skew things for the more liberal candidate?"
Glad you asked, because if you want to count Milwaukee County's unofficial numbers, we might as well also include the other 3 counties in the SEWRPC area (Walworth, Racine and Kenosha), and throw in Sheboygan for good measure, as they're in the Milwaukee media market and well within listening distance for Milwaukee hate radio. You'll "interestingly" note that Milwaukee County's barely more than Madison or Wauzaukington County in vote totals, despite having nearly twice the population, and that you get a similar mirror image.
Milwaukee County - 227,577 votes +29,711 Kloppenburg (56.5%)
Other 4 counties- 135,428 votes +17,296 Prosser (56.4%)
So with these two samples of Madison and the Milwaukee area, we have nearly half of the state's total votes, and a net difference of Kloppenburg +4,415. Conversely, this means in the other half of the state, Prosser allegedly won by a little over 11,700 votes out of over 750,000 (or by 1.55%).
If you win the "real" Wisconsin by less than 2% in a non-partisan election, I would hardly call that any kind of big-time victory or mandate, particularly when your opponent was completely unknown 2 months ago and you've been in elective office for over 30 years, as Prosser has. So if Prosser is lucky enough to survive a statewide recount without more corrupt discrepancies throwing out his votes, I wouldn't exactly call this an example of "Madison vs. the rest of the state." But then again, when you're Scotty Walker-sha, why should we expect you and your 262 area code backers have a clue what the rest of Wisconsin really thinks?
And trust me, that slam on the 370,000+ Kloppenburg voters that are from outside of the Milwaukee area and Dane County will remember when we recall you this time next year, Scotty. And so will the hundreds of thousands of others that may have sat out this election. Amazing how this dimwit forgets that over 4 million Wisconsinites never voted for him....and never will.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
April Fool's! Wisconsin's budget will balance just fine
I am Jake's complete lack of surprise to see the LFB admit that the "new and improved" budget repair bill will pretty much balance the 2009-2011 budget even without the forced increases in health care and pension contributions from state employees. Doing nothing at all would leave an alleged deficit of $18.675 million, which is less than .15% of the GPR budget, and given how state revenues continue to come in well above expectations, it's pretty evident that this fiscal year's budget will be in balance when it all finalizes on June 30.
But I'm willing to accept some modifications to put us in better shape fiscally. However, Walker's bill doesn't even do anything to solve those issues. Instead of accepting the thousands of state employee retirements, and using the lapses of state money by not filling those positions for the next 3 months, this "repair" bill actual decreases the lapses (i.e. allows for added spending) by $79 million. So does this mean Scotty thinks state employees really are needed? Inquiring minds want to know.
It also fills in Medicaid assistance holes to the tune of $176 million- $24 million more than first projected (think national health care might cut those costs at the state level?), but doesn't use the lapses or additional revenues to pay for it. Instead the plan is to "refinance" (read: borrow) another $165 million, which means we spend close to ANOTHER $30 million in fiscal year 2011-2013 to pay it off. Why not just use the original lapse figures and play it tight for the rest of the year if you're so fiscally conservative? Well, unless you want to blow up the budget in future years, leading to more fiscal crises and a need to take "further measures." They wouldn't sabotage things like that, would they? (oh yes they would)
And on another economic note, the latest jobs report continues to show steady growth, at 216,000 jobs for March , 410,000 in the last 2 months, and nearly 1.5 million jobs since the low point of February 2010. If you run the numbers from the 2010 Census using the 18+ population of the U.S., this means that Wisconsin's job growth should be around 7,600 for these two months if it is staying in line with the rest of the nation. Wisconsin held up well in February on the surface, with 5,200 jobs added, but that's skewed by 3,600 additional jobs in state governmnet, reflecting Scotty's cronies moving in.
Let's just say the 40+ retirements in my department in the last month makes me think that +3,600 state gov't job number will be reversed in coming months, so Scotty better hope he sees more than 1,600 other jobs a month move in, or else that 250,000 job promise will look even more empty than we already know it to be.
But I'm willing to accept some modifications to put us in better shape fiscally. However, Walker's bill doesn't even do anything to solve those issues. Instead of accepting the thousands of state employee retirements, and using the lapses of state money by not filling those positions for the next 3 months, this "repair" bill actual decreases the lapses (i.e. allows for added spending) by $79 million. So does this mean Scotty thinks state employees really are needed? Inquiring minds want to know.
It also fills in Medicaid assistance holes to the tune of $176 million- $24 million more than first projected (think national health care might cut those costs at the state level?), but doesn't use the lapses or additional revenues to pay for it. Instead the plan is to "refinance" (read: borrow) another $165 million, which means we spend close to ANOTHER $30 million in fiscal year 2011-2013 to pay it off. Why not just use the original lapse figures and play it tight for the rest of the year if you're so fiscally conservative? Well, unless you want to blow up the budget in future years, leading to more fiscal crises and a need to take "further measures." They wouldn't sabotage things like that, would they? (oh yes they would)
And on another economic note, the latest jobs report continues to show steady growth, at 216,000 jobs for March , 410,000 in the last 2 months, and nearly 1.5 million jobs since the low point of February 2010. If you run the numbers from the 2010 Census using the 18+ population of the U.S., this means that Wisconsin's job growth should be around 7,600 for these two months if it is staying in line with the rest of the nation. Wisconsin held up well in February on the surface, with 5,200 jobs added, but that's skewed by 3,600 additional jobs in state governmnet, reflecting Scotty's cronies moving in.
Let's just say the 40+ retirements in my department in the last month makes me think that +3,600 state gov't job number will be reversed in coming months, so Scotty better hope he sees more than 1,600 other jobs a month move in, or else that 250,000 job promise will look even more empty than we already know it to be.
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