Another month, another loss of jobs. But this time with awesome spin!

Guess my prediction of minor job increases in November was way off for Wisconsin. Try the biggest monthly loss yet, 11,700 private sector jobs, and 14,600 overall. But maybe even more sickly hilarious than the God-awful jobs report is DWD Secretary Reggie Newson's remarkable spin on it.

Department of Workforce Development (DWD) today released the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) monthly report showing Wisconsin’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.3 percent from 7.7 percent. (Ed. Note: This is a separate survey, and largely reflects a smaller workforce, much like the U.S. drop from 9.0% to 8.6% in the same month) October’s job loss number was significantly reduced to 2,400 from the initial estimate of 9,700, a 75 percent correction.

Secretary Reggie Newson today issued a statement on the newest set of monthly Wisconsin employment numbers. “October was the fifth straight month and the eighth month this year in which the federal government overestimated the preliminary job loss numbers or underestimated job gains for Wisconsin,” Secretary Newson said. “I am particularly concerned by the disparity in the October preliminary numbers, which were off by 7,300 for total jobs and 7,900 for private-sector jobs. These unreliable employment statistics out of Washington misinform the public and create unnecessary anxiety for job seekers and job creators about the shape of our state’s economy."

WOW, and not just for the horribly written part about "overestimating th preliminary job losses" (you mean understating total jobs?)And Newson and DWD double down on it from there, with a huge chart showing upward revisions in previous months...but also showing that there were still serious job losses from the time Walker budget was signed in June. Only about 1 1/2 pages in are November's numbers mentioned.

...Preliminary November data indicates employment declines for the month in most categories. The data show that, compared to November 2010, the private sector gained 16,600 jobs, including 5,600 in manufacturing and 11,400 in educational and health services. The public sector lost 12,100 jobs over the year. Without seasonal adjustment, the estimates had similar results, a monthly private sector job loss, but a 15,600 gain over the year.

Yeah, of course, the DWD release doesn't mention that as part of the 15,600 private sector gain, 22,600 private sector jobs were gained between November and March (you know, before Act 10 was passed busting unions?). Which means we've LOST 7,000 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS SINCE ACT 10. Guess it was just an oversight, eh Reg?

And even with those revisions cutting October's job losses from 9,700 to 2,400, it still means there was a loss in a month where there were 100,000 new jobs in the U.S., and it still means Wisconsin lost the most jobs in the U.S. in those 4 months. Lipstick on a pig indeed!

Looks like it's time to update the charts.

Wisconsin vs. U.S. jobs 2011


And manufacturing has fallen apart in Wisconsin, down 9,000 jobs since the budget was signed, and 9,800 since August, while the U.S. has maintained steady growth in this sector.

Manufacturing jobs, Wisconsin vs. U.S. 2011


Add in this disaster, the Walker budget record now reads:
Wisconsin -34,900 total (-1.26%), -25,000 private (-1.06%).
U.S. +0.50% total (+1.76% vs. Wisc.), +0.66% private (+1.72% vs. Wisconsin)

That's right, we're coming up at being down 2% vs. the rest of the country. But that's what you get when you have the 1 and only Scott Walker! Doing the math, this now means you can directly point to Walker's policies as costing Wisconsin 40,500 private sector jobs, and nearly 49,000 total jobs.

Hmm, no wonder half a million have signed the recall papers, and no wonder this Administration is floundering about with baseless lawsuits trying to stop the inevitable end of Fitzwalkerstan. Because the reality and their record show them to be historic CLUELESS FAILURES.

Walker tactics- Shoot first, correct and clean up later

In a J-S story on the disgraceful mining bill giveaway to Walker contributors Gogebic Taconite, looks like there might be a little hangup.

New mining legislation may conflict with the Great Lakes Compact, according to an official with the Department of Natural Resources.

A water resources administrator with the agency said that language on the use of high capacity wells in a mining bill unveiled last week might run up against restrictions on water use in the compact.

“There is a potential conflict,” said Russ Rasmussen, deputy water division administrator said on Wednesday before a hearing on the legislation....

It would also require the DNR to approve mining applications in 360 days. The current regulatory process takes at least 2½ years, according to the Legislative Council, the research arm of the Legislature.

A representative of Army Corps of Engineers also raised questions about the timeline.

“Our concern … is that 360 days may not be enough time to partner with the state,” said Rebecca Graser, program manager of regulatory affairs for the corps in Wisconsin.

Oops! Looks like we might have a few unintended consequences from rushing through this giveaway, now don't we? The hundreds that packed the State Fair Park conference room have a few concerns as well, so maybe it's not such a good idea to jam something through if you don't know what'll happen next, is it, WisGOP?

But sadly, this is the way they operate. Look at these Walker Admin- promoted laws over the past few months, and see how they have to come back later to fix them up, usually at a much higher taxpayer expense.

The best example is the Walker Admin's pose on the train from Milwaukee to Madison to the Twin Cities. Walker and his (road builder and WSOR-supported) supporters cried over the potential of a few million dollars in state costs needed to support the line once it was built with Federal stimulus money, and sent such clear signals against the project that the Obama Administration rightfully told them to fuck off and sent the money elsewhere.

The payoff from this short-sighted move came in this year's state budget, and was felt again last week when the Joint Finance Committee set aside $2.5 million more in state funds to study a new site for the train manintenance facility- a facility that would have been 100% funded by the Feds (i.e. only 1.8% by Wisconsinites) if only Walker and the 262 trailer trash that whined about it had shut up and allowed the project to go through. And they might not even get the facility (and its jobs) in Wisconsin any more, as it could now get built in Chicago!

The final price tag for Walker's symbolic BS? Between $65 and $84 million dollars, according to the LFB. Wisconsin's 1.8% share of building the $810 million rail line? About $1.5 million. So we threw away a building project that would have added a few thousand jobs for the next 3 years and what did we get in return? Somewhere between $60 and $80 million in extra expenses and a reduced amount of jobs and tax revenue. And our federal spending and taxes didn't even go down, because the money went elsewhere (mostly to California and Illinois- you know, the states with the highest job growth last month).

Another example is the absurd voter ID bill, which in addition to being disenfranchising and discriminatory, also has a major price tag to it. When it was passed, the LFB figured around
$5.7 in extra costs to the GAB, DMV, and universities to "solve" this problem that only existed in race-baiting right-wing radio.

But extra cost is not the only concerns that have cropped up with this unneccesary law. First, the disproportionately low-income and minority technical colleges were left off of the list of schools where IDs were acceptable documents to vote, an "oversight" that was only reversed after a serious lobbying effort by the state's tech college officials. It also has thrown up so many barriers that 84-year old Central Wisconsin grandmothers that have served on village boards face the possibility of not being able to vote. This woman's disenfranchisement is a centerpiece of this week's ACLU lawsuit that asks to throw Voter ID out entirely, but before it gets tossed, Wisconsin needs to waster another $436,000 in a TV ad campaign informing people about voter ID.

Much like turning down the train, voter ID was a pose and a bone thrown to the Walker boys' hateful base, and a false solution for a mundane or non-existent "problem." (Yeah, I'm using the air quotes a lot in this post, but the thinking is so absurd and bullshit, I really have no choice) Apparently having the 2nd highest turnout rate in America in 2008 was such an issue for the Koch-publicans that they just had to waste millions of our taxpayer dollars to make sure we don't approach that figure again. (Wisconsin being Number 1 for job? Not so urgent.)

And I could go on and on how the Walker boys are such slipshod fools. This includes possibly throwing tens of thousands of Wisconsinites off of Badgercare because of an arbitrary December 31 demand of the Feds to break their own Obamacare rules - a move so stupid the Walker-endorsing Journal-Sentinel is calling it a bad idea. It also includes the "now-you-need-concealed carry training, now-you-don't" ridiclousness pulled by Walker and the autocratic Rules Committee, which only caused a massive amount of confusion over which rules applied, and still could be changed again in the next few months.

And let's not even start with the Wacky-hut silliness in Milwaukee County, or the soon-to-be-ignored and tossed protesting rules at the Capitol. It's all part of the pattern of how the Walker folks are a lot more about poses and looking like they're taking action....and not so much about results, effects and reality. And I may be old-fashioned, but I demand my legislators to have the ability to see more than 5 minutes and one poll into the future when they put laws into place, and get it right the first time.

They clearly don't beieve that, and we've all paid a major price in both taxpayers dollars and in effective government. And that WisGOP inability to see past their own noses, think on anything above a spoiled-child level ("I want it! I want it!") and deafness to anything except talk radio is why there'll be a new group in power in the next few months.

Midwest in recession and recovery

When I saw the treasure trove of data that came from that Federal Reserve "GDP By States" report that I referenced in the post that showed Wisconsin having the worst economy in the nation over the last 3 months, I had to look into it further. (Why? Probably because I am a pathetic geek on these things). I've mentioned before that Wisconsin handled the recession better than most of its neighbors, and this data will back most of it up, as well as show the Scott Walker effect that has taken away these advantages.

I wanted to show Wisconsin in comparison to its upper Midwestern neighbors, so we have a total of 7 states including Wisconsin in this study, as well as the U.S. numbers as a whole. The first chart shows GDP drops and recovery from 2008 (the U.S. started seeing the numbers drop in Jan. 2008) through today. You'll see that Wisconsin muddled through a lot better than any of its neighbors to the south and east (Michigan was so bad it literally went off the charts in 2009), and we were slightly better than the U.S. each year from 2008-2010. But in 2011, Wisconsin dropped below the U.S. for growth, and now trails by almost 1%. (click for bigger image)

Interestingly, Iowa and Minnesota are the clear leaders in this chart, and the two states that beat Wisconsin in our region. Minnesota in particular is almost back to where they were when the recession started. It's not the only way they've been beating Wisconsin in economic stats in the last couple of years - think this might have something to do with the Twin Cities being a lot more open to new ideas and new people than Milwaukee and the 262? If you don't, you should.

Now check the next chart, which shows how the economy has rebounded in the 2 years since Wisconsin hit bottom in October 2009 (we actually came out of recession 2 months before the country as a whole). You'll see Wisconsin continues to match U.S. growth as a whole and was solidly in the middle of the pack when compared to our neighbors...until Walker's budget was signed in June. Now, we're next to last in our group for growth in the last 2 years, and have gotten passed by Illinois and Minnesota, as well as the country as a whole. (again, click for the larger image)

You'll notice a few things here:

1. Michigan and Ohio had the highest increases, which isn't all that surprising since they were so far down to start. Likewise, Iowa is the only state to increase slower than Wisconsin in this time, but Cornholio didn't fall very far to begin with.

2. The U.S. economy has continued to steadily grow in the last 4 months, while Wisconsin has dove down.

3. The other state in clear recession in the Upper Midwest Region? Mitch Daniels' Indiana, continuing its underperforming trend under one of Scott Walker's political idols.

So there's more evidence of how Wisconsin is starting to trail and see the damage from Scott Walker's policies. And given the higher jobless claims over the last few weeks and the disastrous mill closings in Central Wisconsin announced last week, you can't expect it to improve much in the next few months. Now I'm going to go out on a limb and say we may have gained jobs in November, but it won't be much, and it won't get us back to where the rest of our region has been the last few months.

By the way, those new jobs numbers come out on Thursday and the state numbers will probably be on Friday. Between that and the inevitably larger property tax bills that are hitting people's mailboxes (and yes, they'll be up...or the home values will be down), you don't think there's a bit of flop sweat coming from DWD and the Walker Admin right now?

Braunie now knows the power of a union

I'm still recovering from the stomach punch I got around 6:45 last night when I was watching ESPN with my Dad and the "special report" came on with Ryan Braun allegedly testing positive for PEDs and facing a 50-game suspension. I know I shouldn't be shocked about baseball players being accused of PEDs, but....it's Braunie! Between this and Prince's likely departure, it really gives a huge cloud over this franchise going into 2012.

Now that being said, Braun is insisting he will be cleared, and maybe he's got a tight case (I could see Braunie having top-notch legal and PR people around), but the East Coasters on the Sports Reporters don't seem to be buying it this morning.

And for all you union-bashers that love the Crew- Aren't you glad Ryan Braun has a union that allows him a chance to appeal a questionable drug test and get due process? See how this type of thing works when you have someone backing you up (and part of a group smart enough to reach an agreement with management on drug testing through COLLECTIVE BARGAINING). Sure beats being someone like Allison Rozek at the DWD, and getting fired for no apparent reason other than whistelblowing about sexual harrassment and not kissing the right person's ass.

Nope, Walker's moves don't work- Pt. 23521

The failures just keep rolling in on this clown. James Rowen has an excellent find showing the monthly Federal Reserve report that lists Wisconsin DEAD LAST among the states in economic activity, and in clear recession over the last 3 months.
And it looks even worse when you see what it looked like when Walker was elected in November under "growth-killer" Jim Doyle.
In fact, the Fed says Wisconsin's economy grew in every month from October 2009 through the start of 2011. And while things were starting to slow down, we will still holding up when Walker's budget passed in June.
Now, we're back down to where we were in March, before Act 10 was passed in that illegal vote. And don't believe for a second that the past isn't prologue. So unless you like being Number 50 in the nation, I think it's well past time to pull the plug.

And speaking of the past being prologue, a hidden story in the J-S this week includes the Milwaukee County Auditor admitting that Walker's handling of employee relations in his previous job was a miserable failure.

Milwaukee County’s use of unpaid employee furloughs last year to help balance the budget saved the county about $5.2 million, but resulted in thousands of hours of lost employee work time, forced overtime and demoralized employees, County Auditor Jerome Heer said Thursday.

The savings also could be nearly wiped out if the county loses a court case over furloughs, Heer said.

"These furloughs were not all they were cracked up to be," he told supervisors. "It’s a very inefficient way to achieve savings."

Doesn't this sound like the Wacky-hut screw-up all over again? You know, where Milwaukee County taxpayers got socked with paying more than they would have had they just kept the same unionized staff on the job? I've touched on this before, but furloughs only work if the reductions are intended to be short-term items that get a budget back in balance due to unexpectedly low revenues. It is NOT to be used as a consistent tactic, and if benefit costs and structural deficits are the issue (as they allegedly were in Milwaukee County), and the jobs are still needed (which they apparently were, because Walker would have demanded layoffs instead of furloughs if they weren't), then the best answer is to be an adult and NEGOTIATE A BETTER DEAL.

And just like he did as Governor in Madison, Walker failed to do this, possibly because he doesn't have the mental capabilities to think past what'll play in the next 5 minutes on the Charles Sykes show. And just like in Madison, this dictatorial approach backfired badly, but not before serious damage was done to the area he was in charge of.

Lies, lies and WisGOP-damning reality

First of all, two great pieces of reporting work from the Left Cheddarsphere this week.

First, a great job of connecting the dots by James Rowen on the closing of the Wausau paper plant in Brokaw and that company's connections the Bradley Foundation, Wall Street, and $4.5 million payouts to its CEO. Required reading to show how these all tie together to slam a Central Wisconsin town into oblivion.

Next, here's Jeff SImpson at Blogging Blue exposing the lies in that pro-Walker ad wiith the Cottage Grove teacher. Monona Grove schools already have numerous classes above their desired standard due to Walker's budget, filled this year's budget holes with Obama stimulus money and NOT the tools, and their own superintendent says the district is in a $1.5 million hole under Walker's budget for NEXT year, with no tool adjustments to be made.

When you have to lie and omit these things to the public, you're damn near done. And why are they lying? Because of this reality.

News came out this week showing Wisconsin to be a national leader. Unfortunately, it was as the state with the biggest increase in unemployment claims for the Thanksgiving week. And the bottom of the page adds that it wasn't by a little.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 26 were in Wisconsin (+8,172), Michigan (+2,643), Iowa (+2,228), Indiana (+1,645), and Ohio (+1,500) while the largest decreases were in California (-27,440), Texas (-8,543), Florida (-5,306), South Carolina (-4,670), and New York (-4,614).

Wisconsin's new unemployment claims have been consistently creeping up the last 6 weeks, so don't expect Wisconsin's worst in the nation job performance under the Walker budget to improve any time soon. By the way, any report of that in the Journal Communications, Inc. newspaper? No, of course there wasn't. Hmmmm...

Maybe if we get back to valuing good, old-fashioned skill advancement and hard work, we can get our Wisconsin way back. I had business in NE Wisconsin this week, and caught this headline from the Shawano Leader. KI is expanding their operations in Bonduel, adding an estimated 27 new jobs in that small town. And why did they decide to do this? Because Wisconsinites are better workers than Confederates.

KI plans to phase out production at its plant in Pontotoc, Miss., beginning in January. The plant, which has about 40 employees, will close by June 1. Manufacturing of seating and table products done in Pontotoc will move to Bonduel.

KI started production at the Bonduel facility in 1998. It employs 176 people and is the fourth largest KI manufacturing facility in the nation.

With the closing of the Pontotoc facility, KI also will convert its manufacturing facility in Tupelo, Miss., to a warehouse and distribution center; two of Tupelo's product lines will move to Bonduel. Because of the changes, KI will drop its staffing in Tupelo from 55 to about 30 people.

Yes, it's a net loser for the country (those 27 jobs added come at the expense of 65 in Mississippi), and it's a big reason why the whole "play one state off vs. another with tax incentives" idea is stupid, but it sure tells you something when KI feels it's better off with half the employees in Wisconsin rather than keep their operations in Mississippi. So much for the theory about the low-tax, low-wage South being a more desirable place for manufacturing jobs, huh? Doesn't matter much when you have smarter, better workers in the North. Kinda makes you think a winning strategy is to invest in tech schools that teach needed manufacturing skills and improve K-12 education so companies want to locate in an area that values high-skill, adapatable workers.

Oh wait, Walker cut the fuck out of technical schools and K-12. Sounds like we need a new governor to get more KI-type expansions on track for Wisconsin's future, don't we?

Walker deceived on June jobs release? NOOOOO!!!!

Well, just color me surprised. Walker and his boys were told by DWD officials that the short-term June jobs spike was all due to tourism jobs outside of metro areas and other short-term, seasonal factors that would go away in the next few months. They ran with it anyway with a big public display, probably because it was 3 weeks until the Senate recall elections.

Hell, I don't even work for DWD and I told you that 4 months ago.

The real story is that it means you need to keep your eyes peeled for similar lies from the Walker folks about Wisconsin jobs "turning a corner" if they get any sort of positive job news in the next few months. Given the U.S.'s steadily improving economy in the last few months, Wisconsin SHOULD see an increase in jobs coming up, if all things stay equal. But you can bet Walker and the paid liars on talk radio will try to ignore the positive U.S. news, and try to take all the credit for any added employment in Wisconsin - even if it's temporary Holiday jobs that will go away in January. Don't fall for it.