Get Bucky off of hate radio!

At last week's big rally in Madison, I carried a sign that included the following:


And a few people took notice. I particularly recall an older gentleman reading the sign, kind of nodding and saying "Never really thought about how that all tied together," and I replied "Yeah, even more interesting when you know Bain Capital runs Clear Channel, and Romney used to work at Bain Capital." At which point another person nearby disgustedly shook his head in agreement.

But make no mistake, while these stations specialize in right-wing hate radio during the weekdays, they set aside nights and weekends with other programming to lure others in. And most of the time, this "other programming" involves Wisconsin sports teams. Take a look at the Badger Sports Network affiliates, and notice that almost all of the stations in the picture also carry Bucky, and 1130 in Milwaukee carries Marquette instead of UW. This is a classic example of radio stations trying to have it both ways, by employing hate-radio hosts who constantly denigarate Madison and the UW as crazy liberals while getting a whole lot of listeners and advertising revenue from UW sports.

These hosts and stations also give overly favorable and unchallenged coverage to Governor Walker, who cut UW-Madison by $250 million and tried to set up a separate authority to run the university, while stacking that authority with his hack appointees. And then the Walker Administration hurt the UW even more when it targeted Bucky and the rest of the UW System for an abusurdly disproportionate amount of budget lapses, while keeping his buddies in areas like the Road Builders fat and happy.

So as I've asked before, why does UW Athletics continue to associate itself with a bunch of scumbags who want to destroy the university that allows Bucky to play sports in the first place? I've called for UW to get off of 620AM for the last 2 years because of the station's AM daytime hate lineup, and this seems more true than ever given that TMJ has carried Walker's water for the last several years while Walker and other Republicans have tried to mess up the UW. UW already has an agreement with WOKY 920 to broadcast games that TMJ bumps off of the station (including today's UW March Madness game? Unacceptable!)

I think UW has the upper hand in this equation, because it's well-known in the radio business that a main reason to get sports programming is to allow people to lazily stay with that station for its other dayparts. But the reverse is generally not true. Let's be honest, if Lucas and Le Pay are calling the game and you want to find it, you're going to get to the station that has it, and learn quickly where it is. That heavy UW sports listener is much less likely to care where Rush or Sykes or Belling or McKenna is, and won't end up tuning into their anti-UW poison by accident as a result.

This is why I think UW needs to use its leverage to pull itself off of stations that are intending to hurt the university. And there are a lot of easy ways to do so. In Milwaukee, why not go to 920 or some other station like 1250 full-time? Those stations would be more than willing to shell out the money to get the extra listeners, and it would allow the Badgers to be the priority they deserve to be in Milwaukee (and they most certainly are not on 620, as the Milwaukee pro sports teams all get preference over Bucky). And Badger fans wouldn't have to deal with bullshit like Sykes and Wagner promos interrupting their enjoyment of the game.

In Madison, the option is even easier, as they already have games on WIBA-FM, and Clear Channel does "backup" Badger games on their sports station of 1070. Why not just make 1070 the UW station (and Packer and Brewer station for that matter), and leave 1310 to the hate radio? Granted, it's still Clear Channel (which has its own set of issues given Limbaugh's hefty salary and pathetic act is a major weight around its neck), but it separates the UW from the screeching of McKenna and overall stupidity that 1310 has, and would increase audience share for 1070's other shows. Seems to be a win-win to me.

And Bucky should also go really hard after 1330 in Sheboygan and 550 in Wausau. There's just enough competition in those towns and areas that another AM station would salivate at becoming the new home of Badger sports, so why not tell them to turn off the hate, or their listeners will turn elsewhere to get Bucky? There should be a price to be paid for these stations allowing this unchallenged garbage on their stations, and pulling sports programming may be even more effective than hammering advertisers on these stations through boycotts and public exposure. (though by all means, do that too. The only way hate radio stops is when it becomes less profitable to have it than not to have it.)

C'mon Alvarez and the Athletic Department, you OWE this to the many alums and UW supporters that are tired of having our university get torn down on the very stations that are "the home of Badger athletics." Do your fans a favor and make these stations pay a price for taking UW for granted, because I'd argue that only the Packers have more pull and importance for Wisconsin sports on a statewide basis (though I admit the Brew Crew is close to UW). In addition, maybe these stations will learn to stop killing the best resource this state has- the high levels of education and quality of life that results in a big way from the contributions of UW-Madison and the rest of the UW System.

Walker's great train wreck

Well, today the Wisconsin GOP put the final touches on the wrecking of one type of Wisconsin transportation, as the Joint Finance Committee voted to walk away from the state's contract to make trains in Wisconsin. This was a project that previously would have been paid in large part through federal funds from President Obama's stimulus package, but the project was shifted to state taxpayers after the horrible, talk-radio-based decision Scott Walker made in the 2010 elections to stop the expansion of passenger rail from Milwaukee through Madison to the Twin Cities.

Well, this was the next domino to drop as a result of that Koch and WSOR-backed decision. If you read the LFB rundown of the train maintenance facility proposal, you can see how Walker's bad decision quickly FUBAR'ed into another.

At the time that the Talgo equipment was purchased in 2009 (their first cars should be ready to go in a few months), the Department [of Transportation] indicated that it was sometimes difficult to ensure that Amtrak would supply enough passenger cars in good working condition for the Hiawatha route (to Chicago). Owning the Talgo equipment would allow the state, instead of Amtrak, to control the supply and condition of passenger cars. If the Department's request is not approved and the Talgo equipment is not used to replace Amtrak equipment, the availability and condition of Amtrak equipment may continue to be an issue.

Also at the time of the purchase, the Department envisioned that the Talgo equipment could be used as part of the proposed Milwaukee to Madison extension and for possible future service extensions to the Twin Cities. Under such a scenario, the fixed costs associated with providing maintenance would have been spread over a larger number of passenger-miles than would be the case if the cars are only used on the Chicago to Milwaukee route. Consequently, limiting the use of the cars to the Chicago to Milwaukee route reduces their relative cost-effectiveness.

In other words, the Wisconsin DOT is now at the mercy of D.C.-based Amtrak when it comes to rail car maintenance and comfort, and given the way the D.C. Teabaggers are treat passenger rail, that means the quality and availability of Amtrak service could deteriorate further. This is especially distressing because the Hiawatha line is showing record ridership of nearly 2,250 rides a day and I-94 south of Milwaukee is going to be under construction for the next several years.

The second part is also key, as making the new rail cars for Milwaukee-Chicago only instead of Chicago-Milwaukee-Madison-Twin Cities means that it is now much less financially worthwhile to have that facility. And sure enough, ALEC cabin boy Robin Vos noted that having the Talgo facility would cost an extra $10 million a year because of the larger cost-per-mile that resulted from having no high-speed rail extension, and therefore, it was now not worth it to try to build a new facility. Of course, Vos conveniently left out that a lot of the extra cost is due to more frequent maintenance work at the Talgo facility vs. Amtrak, giving the rail cars a longer, more productive life (and it's done in the private sector instead of gov't-supported Amtrak, Robin! I thought you ALEC boys were all about that). It also doesn't mention the extra tax revenues that would result from people working at a Talgo facility, and he never mentioned the increased time and cost to Wisconsin consumers that will result from extra driving and congestion, This is especially short-sighted when you realize we are moving into a time when $4 gas and reconstruction of Milwaukee-area freeways are looking to become the new normal, and having that alternative of rail travel is increasingly inviting and convenient.

So what happens now? Well, DOT Secretary Mark Gottlieb (who wanted the facility to be built) says that the Talgo trains will now probably not be used, and will sit idle until some other DOT wants to buy them (productivity!). It also means that any jobs in the Menomonee Valley will soon be gone, and another part of Southeast Wisconsin won't get these manufacturing jobs, so that bit of job creation goes out the window. And as for Talgo? The LFB says

in the event of the failure to meet the terms of the maintenance agreement, the company would proceed under the dispute resolution terms of the agreement. Under that procedure, if informal negotiations fail to resolve the dispute, the a third-party expert is chosen to resolve the dispute. (In other words, it'll be hashed out in court, probably at signifcant state expense)

Another point to bring up is that the bond expenses that already went into engineering and study on the facility have to be paid back, probably through DOT funds, so we'll have to see even more money get shelled out for a project that now will yield NOTHING for Wisconsin rail passengers.

And lastly, what kind of reputation is the Wisconsin Legislature and DOT going to have now that it's gone back on its contract with Talgo. Yes, some of it was sketchy and possibly overpriced due to the exacting nature of what Jim Doyle and the DOT wanted, I'd agree with that assessment (but contrary to the J-S article, it was NOT a no-bid contract, but instead a situation where only Talgo responded to what the DOT wanted out of the rail cars. I know Sykes works for Journal Communications, but COME ON!). But that still in no way excuses Walker for his idiotic pose on stopping the train and turning down the money, precisely because it opened up a can of worms like this that compunds the error with every move.

If Scott Walker was any type of astute politican, he could have used the post-election time period to complain and say Doyle stuck him with the bill and that he wished he could do something but that Doyle "screwed" the state into having the rail line get built. And if he did that, Walker would now be in position to take credit for the new jobs created by the rail line, it'd be likely that Talgo would be building their facility in or near Milwaukee, and we'd be preparing for train service to come to Madison next year. Instead, he chose to gain talk-radio brownie points with the basement-dwelling 620 and 1130 crowds, and it will cost this state millions more than if he just his mouth and let the train happen, with fewer jobs created to boot. It has also given Wisconsin a bad reputation nationwide as a place that has a Legislature that doesn't think long-term or fulfill the terms of its contracts, so good luck having businesses get confidence in wanting to locate or do projects in this place as long as Walker and the WisGOPs are running the show.

So here's another Scott Walker decision that comes back to bite the state over time. And much Walker said to Tim Russell about the illegal campaigning that happened under Walker's watch in Milwaukee County, we can't afford to have any more screw-ups like this. Which is why we must end Walker's disastrous reign as soon as possible.

Walker's Wisconsin still No. 1. For the last 12 months!

I was waiting for today's Bureau of Labor Statistics' report of unemployment by states, and it confirmed what I figured it might when last week's brutal 2011 revisions were revealed. Wisconsin is still Number 1 in America during the age of Fitzwalkerstan, and it ain't even close!

Biggest job losses Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012
Wisconsin -12,500
Missouri -4,100
Miss'sippi -2,900
Alabama -1,900
Rhode Isl. -1,300

And the BLS also took notice, giving us a special place in the report.

The largest over-the-year percentage increase occured in North Dakota (+5.7 percent), followed by Texas and Utah (+2.5 percent each). The largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment occurred in Wisconsin (-0.5 percent), followed by Alaska, Mississippi, and Rhode Island (-0.3 percent each).

Now, in Scott Walker's defense, we are up to 47th when it comes to private sector job growth (900 whole jobs!) in the last year, so let's not come down too rough on Governor Dropout (we beat Mississippi, Rhode Island and Alaska). But it certainly does mean we horribly lag our Midwestern neighbors, who have thrived during the Obama Recovery.

Midwest job growth, all jobs Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012
Ohio +62,500
Mich +61.700
Ind. +38,700
Ill. +29,200
Minn +25,800
Iowa +9,200
Wis. -12,500

Midwest job growth, private sector Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012
Mich +72,300
Ohio +69,200
Ind. +41,800
Ill. +40,100
Minn +33,200
Iowa +13,200
Wis. +900

Naturally, the Dems in Wisconsin jumped all over this new evidence of Walker's failures, with releases from Peter Barca and the DPW, among others. So what did Walker's folks do? Doubled down on the "it's working" theme, with more absurd spin from our buddy, DWD Secretary Reggie Newson. I'll take this release apart in pieces

Representative Barca needs to get beyond his shortsighted view and look at the picture, starting with the loss of nearly 150,000 jobs during the three years before Governor Walker took office. In 2011, Governor Walker and his partners in the Legislature took action to stabilize our state's economy and set the stage for job growth.

How convenient of Reg to mention the job losses in Wisconsin starting in 2008 without mentioning that the U.S. lost more than 7.5 million jobs in the same period. You think the Bush Depression/Wall Street meltdown might have had a little to do with the job losses in the state at the time? And it also conveniently forgets that the Wisconsin's economy actually stabilized in 2010, and grew by more than 50,000 private sector jobs in the 12 months before Scott Walker took over. Lies by omission are still lies, Reggie.

Wisconsin's unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest point since 2008, and some 11,700 more Wisconsinites were employed year-over-year as of January 2012 according to the latest BLS data.

First of all, Reggie switches to the household survey that gives the unemployment rate, not the place-of-work report that gives non-farm payrolls. Very cynical, but nowhere near as cynical as crediting Walker policies with lowering the unemployment rate to 2008 levels. As I pointed out last week, more than half of the drop in the unemployment rate under Walker is because of 15,000 people leaving the Wisconsin work force, and has NOTHING to do with job growth. In fact, if Wisconsin had grown its labor force the same as Minnesota or Illinois last year, its unemployment would be barely changed at 7.6%, and if it grew like Indiana, we'd be up to 8.5%! So the 6.9% unemployment rate isn't a sign of Walker success as much as it is his failures in driving people into retirement and out of the state. Now, onto the last part of that paragraph.

The drop in our state's unemployment rate, the drop in new Unemployment Insurance claims, and the increase in state sales and withholding tax collections last year are all indicators of economic growth that bode well for our state.

More lies by omission. The drop in unemployment claims has little to do with Walker, and everything to do with the general growth in America, as the rest of the country is lowering UE claims as fast or faster than Wisconsin is, as the upward slope in red indicates.
As for the "increase in sales and withholding taxes," notice that Newson says last year , when revenues stayed somewhat steady, but ignores this year, which had drops in January income and corporate taxes that lowered revenues enough to convince the LFB to project a $208 million budget deficit.

So regardless of what Walker's DWD wants to say, there isn't another way to spin these numbers today. It further confirms the absolute failure of Walker's austerity and Robin-Hood-in-Reverse policies, and it has set Wisconsin well behind much of the rest of a national economy that seems to be picking up steam. And given that the seasonal adjustments that helped Walker's numbers in the last few months will be going away, and more people will enter the work force at some point, it's a good bet that Wisconsin might look even worse than the the Midwest and the rest of America by the time the recall elections roll around in 13 weeks.

Do Wisconsin newspapers need to be occupied?

I mentioned before how the pro-Walker nature of Wisconsin media is destructive in this ongoing debate and recall, but we saw a couple more flagrant examples of it in the last week, and it needs to be exposed and discussed.

First, The Wisconsin State Journal's Clay Barbour and Mary Spicuzza wrote a pathetic column blowing off the video showing Scott Walker lying to the Oshkosh papers before the 2010 election. I understand the State Journal is run by Lee Enterprises and went against 2/3 of Dane County voters by endorsing Walker in the 2010 election. But to say that showing the current Governor lying about the benchmark move that he was planning to do - he claims in the video that "you have to negotiate" changes, which Walker never did with the state or local public employees' union - is "underwhelming" is the mark of a newspaper that cynically wants the story to go away instead of performing real journalism. It's a pathetic, cynical copout by Barbour and Spicuzza to not compare Walker's words to his later actions and hold him accountable, and it shows that they value their paycheck more than doing a public service.

Of course, this leads to another question on that video. Why was Jud Lounsbury on Uppity Wisconsin the one to reveal this deception when the Oshkosh Northwestern did the interview 17 months ago? Where the hell was the Northwestern when Act 10 blew up and tens of thousands of us were protesting the bill around the Capitol? They had this tape in their possession where Walker says negotiation is a major part of working with public sector unions, and then Walker went back on that word? Did the Northwestern choose to bury the video because it was an inconvenient truth, and to whom? The editorial board also endorsed Walker over Barrett, and a non-cyncial reading of their endorsement shows that they were absolutely tricked into doing it.

A few cautionary points have emerged on the campaign trail as well. Walker's ultimate success as governor will depend greatly on his ability to work constructively with state employees. He must not fall into the trap of demonizing state employees. Additionally, steps that would undermine Wisconsin's burgeoning biotechnology industry would be a blow to an economic growth engine for the future.

Uh yeah, looks like you guys in Oshkosh missed on that one. Walker DID demonize state employees and has never stopped for the last 13 months. And how's that technology sector working out for us when Walker has cut the hell out of education and the UW System that is a main reason the state had a "burgeoning biotechnology industry?," and the state has lost 1,900 jobs in the "Professional, Scientific and Technical Services" sector of the economy over the last year. So why aren't you showing some pride and being PISSED at this, and why didn't you respond by releasing the tape and admitting you made a mistake by endorsing this bum? Was that an inconvenient truth to Walker, to your owners at Gannett, or to the corporations that pay for your ads? What media chooses not to report on is every bit as important as what they choose to report, and the State Journal and Oshkosh Northwestern's dismissal of a clear deception by the sitting governor is dereliction of their duty to the public.

(By the way, they weren't the only ones who have Walker pre-election interview where he lies about his plans to "drop the bomb", as Lounsbury is back again with a Wisconsin Eye video where Walker mentions negotiations and furloughs, but never mentions the removal of collective bargaining rights. Why is it bloggers like us that have to bring these things to light when "professional" media is pulling down a nice paycheck to allegedly find these things out?)

Now let's turn to the Walker-endorsing Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, who pulled another of their classic cop-outs by saying it wasn't Walker's fault that Wisconsin's jobs picture is so bad. I'll let you read John Peterson's excellent takedown of that bullshit for a deeper look into it, but I'll add a couple of other notes to it.

First, the J-S claims the budget "is in balance." That is an absolute lie, as the J-S themselves covered last month's LFB memo which indicated Wisconsin had a $208 million deficit in the Walker budget due to low revenues and job growth, and there was a J-S editorial written by GOP Rep. Dale Kooyenga complaining about the state's $3 billion GAAP deficit. Does the J-S editorial staff read their own damn paper? Or is it because Journal Communications' CEO Steven Smith lets his fellow officers on the Board of Directors of the pro-Walker Metro Milwaukee Association of Commerce write the editorials instead of J-S writers? Peterson also rightfully calls out this passage:

Politicians are always eager to offer simple solutions; voters sometimes are too eager to believe them. The real reasons elude such mushy thinking. Whatever is the matter with Wisconsin - if, indeed, anything is - has a whole lot more to do with business conditions here and elsewhere than it does with the actions of any single politician.

Except that any breakdown of the last 12 months would tell you that Wisconsin has fallen backward while the rest of the country's job growth has picked up, and that we have the worst economy in the Midwest since Walker's budget was signed. So the "business conditions" are unique in Wisconsin, and few places have had the radical changes in funding of public services and worker rights that Wisconsin has. So yes, we should be correlating it to a single politician (Scott Walker) and a party (the GOP) that backed these devisive measures. And you know who agreed with that sentiment? The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel editorial board when it endorsed Walker in 2010. In their endorsement, the J-S gives a ridiculous theory that Walker wasn't responsible for any part of Milwaukee County's "persisting dysfunction" and that he had somehow put the County on the rght track when the same newspaper reported 2 weeks prior to the editorial that the County was on the brink of bankruptcy after 8 years of Walker. But also check out these couple of passages from the bilge they spewed to back up the MMAC's and WMC's boy.

Scott Walker has said repeatedly during his campaign for governor that he will develop strategies to create 250,000 new jobs during his first term.

It's a big promise - one that has been derided by his critics. But for the sake of Wisconsin, Walker had better be right....

There can be no more kicking the can down the Wisconsin road. If there is one thing Walker has shown in his tenure as county executive, it is an abiding intolerance for the failures of business as usual.

But now that Walker's failing on an historic level when compared to the rest of the nation on jobs, and now that our budget deficit still persists and in fact will expand in later years due to excessive borrowing in 2011 and 2012, Walker somehow shouldn't be held to account for it. GIVE ME A FUCKING BREAK. You know, J-S, 90% of this state isn't stupid enough to listen to your company's right-wing propaganda on WTMJ, and unlike the listeners of 620, it's insulting to us when you think we'll forget what you said in the past. And you wonder why I haven't paid a cent for that newspaper in over a year, and the same for the WSJ?

When you see developments in the last week where the State Journal, Oshkosh Northwestern and Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel clearly cover up for Scott Walker despite having mounds of evidence that counteract the Governor's claims, how can you not question who's calling the shots? It doesn't seem like the reporters are doing it to me, it looks like the corporate bosses and advertisers that's telling the paper what to say...and more importantly, what not to say. It angers me that I and many others across the Cheddarsphere feel we have to constantly publish on sites like this in order to get truth and reality out, because the MSM refuses to do their job. And unfortunately, a lot of people still believe the corporate media has legitimacy in Wisconsin, when a lot of them are nothing more than moutpieces for the WMC and other oligarch organizations that couldn't give a shit about the average Wisconsinite.

It tells me that not only do we have to step up the strength and volume of our work here and in other blogs over the next 3 months, but we also need to be actively drawing attention to the corporate puppetry that has taken over the editorial boards in many of our state's largest and most influential newspapers. In addition to occupying banks, I think we might have to start occupying Journal Communications and 1901 Fish Hatch in Madison, to let these people know that we're onto them, and we will make them pay if they assist in allowing this destructive administration to keep perpetuating this fraud on the Wisconsin that we care for a lot more than Scott Walker and Friends ever will. Either they shape up and start telling the truth, or we'll take them out every bit as much as we're going to take out Walker and his enablers at WisGOP over the next 8 months.

Some weather, eh?

Can't argue with 62 degrees and sunny for Selection Sunday, nor am I going to complain about what things have been like all winter up here, as temperatures have been well above normal, with little snow and very little extreme cold. Wisconsin's had its 3rd warmest winter on record, and as NOAA tells us, we're hardly alone.



It's also led me to think that it's helped some of the economy as well, and I haven't been the only one speculating this. And while this might be the Spring Fever or some other goofiness going on, I'm going to do something unusual and lead you to a Fox Business report that asks if the good Winter weather is helping things along?

The report brings up some things that me and others have hit on as well. James Hamilton at Econbrowser backs up Shapiro's Fox Business report on how car sales have grown in the usual down months of January and February, as the weather isn't cold enough to make people stay off the car lots. In fact, 2012 saw an all-time record number of domestic cars sold in February, even above the pre-recession figures in 2006 and 2007.

U.S. domestic car sales, 2006-2012. (click for better picture)

And here's more backup for Shapiro's reference to the killer February retail sales, up 6.5% vs. the cold, snowy February we had last year.

And the comment about how the warmer winter is lowering seasonal layoffs is certainly backed up in the U.S. jobs figure\s. Check out these three seasonally-variable sectors in the last 2 U.S. jobs reports.

Construction
Jan. -281,000 non-seasonal adjusted = +21,000 seasonal-adjusted
Feb. -41,000 non-seasonal adjusted = -13,000 seasonal-adjusted

Manufacturing
Jan. -62,000 non-seasonal adjusted = +52,000 seasonal-adjusted
Feb. +22,000 non-seasonal adjusted = +31,000 seasonal-adjusted

Food service and drinking places
Jan. -213,400 non-seasonal adjusted = +30,500 seasonal-adjusted
Feb. +96,000 non-seasonal adjusted = +40,800 seasonal-adjusted

Same goes for Wisconsin in last week's January jobs report, as I alluded to when it came out.

Wis. Construction
Jan. -8,100 non-seasonal adjusted = +4,200 seasonal-adjusted

Wis. Manufacturing
Jan. -1,000 non-seasonal adjusted = +3,700 seasonal-adjusted

Wis. Accomodation/ Food service
Jan. -5,400 non-seasonal adjusted = +2,400 seasonal-adjusted

That's about 2/3 of the 15,700 private sector jobs "created" in January in Wisconsin- it's not hiring, it's fewer layoffs than in a typical January. So the real question becomes this: Were there fewer layoffs because businesses see growth coming, or was this just more work due to a warm winter, and March and April will have job "losses" because the Spring hire-backs already happened?

So while I'm very happy to see the U.S. having these booming job numbers the last few months, and certainly the Obama Recovery has some legitimacy, we and the Walker folks both need to keep our optimism in check, as we could be seeing some "moderation" in growth over the next few months as the warm winter's boost wears itself out as the mini-stimulus that it is.

But I ain't gonna bitch about it right now. In fact, I think I'll get myself out today and much of the rest of the week to take full advantage. I think the Memorial Union Terrace is calling me for a visit or 2 or 3.

Scott Walker = Tom Crean, pt. Deux

Bucky 79, IU 71, bringing Bo Ryan's record vs. Tom Crean to 14-2. And no, you cannot hope to stop Rob Wilson when he's feeling it, though hge might be slowed down if Tan Tommy even made an adjustment to guard him. :P

And just as I said last year Bo Ryan owns Tom Crean like reality and Madtown own Scott Walker. The only thing that's changed here is point 7, given that Crean's job is safe (because of one lucky year), and given that Scotty just announced a legal defense fund during a Friday afternoon news dump, he's in a lot more danger of losing his job than he was a year ago.

Get your ass to the Capitol tomorrow, and announce your presence with authority! See you there (at least until I see Bucky take it to MSU later that afternoon).

January's "great" jobs report - actually not so great (Part 2)

I wanted to give the disastrous 2011 revisions its own post and not clutter it with the January 2012 report info as well. So here are my thoughts on that.

Sure enough, the Journal-Sentinel runs with the headline numbers of an increase of 15,700 private sector jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 6.9%, while conveniently ignoring the brutal downward revisions that would have turned January's totals into a job LOSS. But this is not surprising given that they're in bed with Walker and the MMAC, and I think they are starting to recognize the blowback, as Craig Gilbert gave a more evenhanded type of article later today, while still giving the GOP equal time for their one-month uptick.

But let's check out the numbers, as there are definite positives and negatives in them. On the household survey, previous-year revisions show that Wisconsin actually dropped as much as the U.S. unemployment rate did in the last 12 months, from 7.7% to 6.9% (a drop of 0.8%). So at first glance, Walker has broken even, and allowed Wisconsin to keep pace with the Obama Recovery. But the reasons behind the drops are different.

If you look at the U.S. unemployment numbers (a separate survey from the payrolls survey I usually mention) you'll see that that measure shows a jobs increase of more than 2.3 million since January 2011 (1.66%), while Wisconsin's is a paltry 11,700 (0.41%). So how is Wisconsin dropping unemployment by the same rate? Because the survey indicates that 15,000 people have dropped out of the Wisconsin work force. This could be because of the huge increase in retirements for teachers and other public sector employees, who took off to avoid dealing with damage from Walker's policies, as well as people giving up looking for work, or leaving the state entirely.

This becomes even more stark when you separate "out of the work force" for the reasons behind the drop in the unemployment rates for both the U.S. and Wisconsin. How I'm going to do this is to use the January 2011 "labor force" figure, and then compare it to the Jan 2011 and Jan 2012 "employed" figures

Unemployment drops, Jan 2011- Jan 2012
Wisconsin Jan 2011 7.71%, Jan 2012 6.88% (-0.83%). -0.38% due to employment, -0.43% due to out of the work force.

U.S. Jan 2011 9.08%, Jan 2012 8.26% (-0.82%). -1.50% due to employment, +0.68% due to out of the work force.

And there's your difference. While the U.S. labor force has expanded by 1.3 million, limiting the drop in the unemployment rate nationwide, Wisconsin has lost people, and it makes the unemployment rate seem better than it really is. If we had those 15,000 back in the work force, we'd be at 7.3%. If our labor force grew like the rest of America's, we'd be at 8.0%! So why are Reggie Newson and Scott Walker bragging so much about Wisconsin's low unemployment rate? The biggest reason it's grown is because they've driven people away!

Also, I took a look at the non-farm payrolls number in the other survey, and on a seasonally-adjusted basis, it's pretty impressive. 12,500 jobs created overall, and 15,700 in the private sector. Even better, 4,200 of the gains were in Construction and another 3,700 in Manufacturing, in line with the nationwide increase of 21,000 in Construction and 50,000 in Manufacturing.

But that doesn't mean more people were actually working in Wiscosin in January. In fact, the DWD report's NON-seasonal adjustment shows that 62,000 jobs were lost in January, and 46,400 in the private sector. But then how can there be a disaparity with the seasonally-adjusted jobs? Simple, in Janaury you have lots of retail jobs cut people after the Holidays, a new calendar year means changes and cuts in local governments (with their new fiscal year) and cold weather usually means less outdoor work and need for related types of manufacturing. It's the flip side of the Summertime seasonal adjustment, when we get a lot more jobs due to construction and tourism, and we have to adjust it down to give a real idea if we're growing or falling behind.

This definitely held for a number of sectors in Wisconsin in January

1-month seasonally adjusted change vs. non-seasonal change, January 2012

Construction +4,200 seasonal, -8,100 actual
Manufacturing +3,700 seasonal, -1,000 actual
Retail trade +2,200 seasonal, -13,800 actual
Hotel/food serv. +2,400 seasonal, -5,400 actual
Local government +800 seasonal, -6,500 actual

You can see where this makes a big difference. It also explains why there was a massive drop in government jobs in August, as that's when school districts often hire new teachers for the year. Given that many retirements were not replaced, this is where you saw the difference (also explains why August got revised down and Sept. up in those sectors, the non-hirings were moved to August on further review).

So it's really a case of "we didn't lose as many jobs as we usually did" in January as opposed to real job growth caused by hiring. And that explains how January revenues were down nearly 2% vs. last year in a huge job-growth month. The revenues were so low and the job market so bad in previous months that it convinced the LFB to project a $208 million Walker budget shortfall due to the low revenues.

Obviously, the right-wing lie machine won't give you this level of analysis and reality on the January jobs numbers, as they'll stick to the top-line numbers and try to convince you that it's finally starting to turn around for Scott Walker in Wisconsin. It's not, and we won't really know until the Summer to see if we're making any progress in the 53,000-job deficit that Walker has put us in, as the seasonal adjustments and depatures from the work force will stop skewing the numbers above what they should be. And even then, much more of the growth would be due to the Obama recovery (watch for another 200,000 jobs to be announced in tomorrow's Feb. jobs report).

So now you know the real story. Will you use it to counter the cynical bullshit the righties are going to try to pull? You'd better, because the media won't have the brains or the guts to do so.