The Walker jobs gap- reconfigured and even bigger

I finally got around to downloading the newly-benchmarked Wisconsin jobs numbers for the 2010s and compared it to the runup in US jobs that's happened over the same time. As I mentioned when the Wisconsin DWD released the benchmarked figures last week, private sector jobs were revised down by nearly 26,000, and total jobs down by more than 30,000, meaning previous figures had been overestimated.

And as I hinted at last week, these revisions confirm that the state badly lags the rest of the country in each of the four years Scott Walker has been in office. To do an apples-to-apples comparison, I'm going to show how many jobs Wisconsin would have gained over these four years if we had kept up to the US rate, and what we actually gained. I'm going to use private sector job growth because Gov Walker insisted on being judged on private sector job growth- so I'll humor Scotty with this analysis.

Private Sector Job growth, Wisconsin vs. US
1/11- 1/12 Wisconsin +34,100
1/11- 1/12 Wisconsin at US rate +57,764
WALKER JOBS GAP 23,654

1/12- 1/13 Wisconsin +27,600
1/12- 1/13 Wisconsin at US rate +46,084
WALKER JOBS GAP 18,484

1/13- 1/14 Wisconsin +34,900
1/13- 1/14 Wisconsin at US rate +51,667
WALKER JOBS GAP 16,767

1/14- 1/15 Wisconsin +40,800
1/14- 1/15 Wisconsin at US rate +66,236
WALKER JOBS GAP 25,436

Put it together, and the total Walker jobs gap is at 84,351 private sector jobs in his first four-year term. And even with the largest growth in the last 12 months, the gap grew by the largest amount in those 12 months. Remarkably, almost all of the 25,000-job gap in 2014 was opened up through September, which is the last month that had its figures benchmarked to the "gold standard" Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages.



This shows that if Wisconsin had merely kept up with US growth in Walker's first four years in office, we would have added nearly 222,000 jobs, meaning Walker's "floor"...errr... "big goal" of 250,000 /a> was attainable. That is, if we wouldn't have had a wage-cutting doofus like Scott Walker handing out tax cuts to the rich and starving local governments of resources and services.

The same story holds for overall jobs, where the Walker gap is at a little over 78,000, and the US rate would have had us adding 209,000 jobs over those four years instead of a little more than 131,000.



Somehow I'm guessing the Walker jobs gap won't be mentioned as Scotty heads around to New Hampshire this weekend, bragging about his "success" in Wisconsin. But we know it far too well back here in Wisconsin, and we get to see just how badly we stack up to the rest of the nation early next week, when the state-by-state rankings are released.

EDIT: Here's more on these figures from UW Professor Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser.

Obamacare and fiscal policies continue to prove GOP wrong

While the big story on Capitol Hill this week resulted from Republicans in the US Senate deciding to traitorously go over the heads of the president in trying to scuttle peace talks with Iran (and yes, (mo)Ron Johnson was one of them), there was another interesting development that didn't grab as much news. It involves another item that DC Republicans have been dead wrong about: Obamacare. The Washington Post had a good rundown of a new Congressional Budget Office report that shows yet again that the Affordable Care Act is working even better than we already knew.

The Congressional Budget Office announced on Monday that the Affordable Care Act will cost $142 billion, or 11 percent, less over the next 10 years, compared to what the agency had projected in January...

In revising their estimates, the agency noted two trends.

The first is the relatively modest increase in how much private insurance companies spend on their policyholders' health care. Between 1998 and 2005, spending on health care increased by an average of 5 percent per year, adjusting for inflation and demographics. That figure fell to 1.8 percent per year for the period from 2006 to 2013, the latest year for which data are available.

The administration has said that this decline in spending on medical care is at least partly a result of cost-saving measures in the Affordable Care Act. Critics have argued on the contrary that the decline was due to the recession, and that health care costs could begin to rise again. Independent experts have suggested that much of the effect is due to the weak economy, but not all of it.

The CBO had previously expected that the pace of increasing spending would rise fast again, but now they predict that "such a bounce back seems less likely in light of the further slowing of spending growth observed in the most recent data."

The agency also revised their estimates in response to new data on who was insured and how before the law took effect.

They concluded that fewer people were employed by firms that might stop offering coverage as a result of the law's passage, since their employees are now able to buy coverage individually through the exchanges. And they realized that fewer people were uninsured to begin with than they had thought.

As a result, fewer people will need to purchase insurance through the exchanges or need federal help to do so.

So let's review all the GOP predictions about Obamacare that were proven wrong in that statement.

1. Fewer employers dropped coverage.

2. The increase in costs of health care haven't gone up, but have slowed down.

3. Fewer costs in picking up Medicaid and related insurance (hilariously, some of this is due to Governors like Scott Walker who decided to TeaBag Obamacare).

Oh, and another prediction about Obamacare and Obama fiscal policy from right-wing world continues to be proven wrong by the CBO.

President Barack Obama's fiscal 2016 budget proposal would shrink U.S. deficits by $1.232 trillion over 10 years compared to those expected under current tax and spending laws, the Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday.

The deficit reduction, although smaller than that claimed by the White House, is largely due to Obama's proposals for higher taxes on the wealthy, his plans for lower spending on military operations in Afghanistan and net savings from proposed immigration reforms, the CBO said.

For fiscal 2016, the first full year under Obama's fiscal blueprint if Congress were to adopt it, the deficit would fall to $380 billion from $455 billion, the CBO's latest forecast under current laws.

Huh, smarter health care policy, fewer wars, and higher taxes on the wealthy end up reducing the deficit better than the GOP's "trickle-down and spend on war" policies. Imagine that!

The budget numbers may fit, but they won't work

As Gov Walker's approval slides in light of more people waking up to how failed and extreme his policies are, I noticed that the GOPs who Chair the Joint Finance Committee tried to throw Scotty and the Fitzwalkerstanis a lifeline.

The co-chairs of the state's budget-writing Joint Committee on Finance, State Senator Alberta Darling (R-River Hills) and State Representative John Nygren (R-Marinette), issued the following statement regarding the Legislative Fiscal Bureau memo on the projected general fund balance in Governor Walker's proposed budget for the 2015-17 biennium:

"Governor Walker's proposed budget keeps our finances in the black, end of story. The non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau confirms the gross general fund balance of the governor's 2015-17 budget bill would be $123 million with a net balance of $58 million. This is a far cry from the supposed $2 billion deficit Wisconsin Democrats have repeated many times.

"Governor Walker's budget plan provides a solid fiscal starting point as we begin the budget process in the Legislature. The numbers don't lie. We are proud our reforms are working. Wisconsin is on the path to economic success and prosperity, and we're looking forward to using the governor's budget as a base to continue our common sense reforms."

And if you look at the budget figures, what they're saying is true on the surface- Walker's budget numbers do add up on paper.

On November 20, 2014, the Department of Administration submitted the statutorily required report to the Governor and the Legislature on the 2015-17 condition of the general fund based on the administration's revenue estimates and state agency budget requests. That report showed a gross general fund balance of -2,149.1 million and a net balance (after consideration of the $65 million statutory reserve) of $2,214.1 million.

Under the Governor's 2015-17 budget bill, the gross general fund balance would be $123.0 million and the net balance would be $58 million.

But the fact that Darling and Nygren are trying to spin that Walker's "balanced" budget is somehow OK is laughable (as laughable as the scenario that they claimed a $535 million surplus off of last September), and a sign that voters aren't buying what WisGOP has been selling in recent months.

I'm going to even humor the GOPs and give me the assumption that revenues hold up for the last four months of this fiscal year to give a sufficient base to start from (something I think will be very unlikely). With those numbers in place, let's keep in mind what had to be done in order to get the 2015-17 budget numbers to allegedly add up.

1. An assumption of sizable revenue growth based on a continually growing economy and jobs being added. In its estimates from January, the LFB estimated general fund revenues to grow by 4.7% in 2015-16 and 3.8% in 2016-17. This is largely based on the projection of more than 5 million more jobs being added nationwide and a booming housing market being part of big GDP growth.

However, other steps the Walker Administration are taking to make the budget balance make it highly unlikely that Wisconsin will get their share of that growth.

2. The $300 million cut from the UW System, and related lack of outreach requirements to the rest of the state.

3. A $150 cut in per-pupil aid to public schools for next year, leading to deficits across a huge amount of Wisconsin school districts, which will likely mean more cuts to services and compensation.

4. $15 million in cuts to Senior Care, and the subsequent offloading of Wisconsin Seniors onto Medicare Part D.

5. Shared revenues largely remaining at the diminished levels we've seen for the last couple of years.

6. And as the LFB just re-figured, nearly $1 BILLION in unspecified lapses over the 2 years of the budget, including $699 million in the second year of the budget.

7. As previously mentioned, no real salary or benefit increases for state workers over the next 2 years.

Those cuts in services, combined with the lower wages from the just-signed work-for-less legislation and the limited raises for state workers makes it less likely that we will see the job growth and higher revenue figures that the Walker budget counts on. You don't get to have this both ways- with budget cuts usually comes some kind of cut in revenues due to lower growth.

And I'm not even talking about the added debt that Walker is planning to take on- $1.3 billion in borrowing for roads in this budget alone. This does not count as a "deficit" for state budget purposes (it would if it was the Feds), but it is money that will have to be paid back, with debt service crowding out future road projects and other Transportation-based aids. There are also the first payments in this budget that result from the skipped debt payment that the Walker Administration is pulling in order to desperately try and balance 2015's deficit-ridden budget without a budget repair bill.

My guess is that the WisGOPs are trying to pull this meme of "balanced budget" out right now because there is more bad economic news to come in Wisconsin, especially with huge downward revisions in total jobs for 2014 coming out last week. The "gold standard" Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages coming out next week is likely to show Wisconsin in the bottom end of job growth yet again, and you can see that the belief that things are going the wrong way in Wisconsin would get a new piece of evidence.

Combine that with Gov's Walker's tanking job approval ratings, and you can see why Nygren and Darling tried to repeat their Big Lie of 2014 by deceiving on the true nature of Walker's bad budgets.

Wisconsin isn't liking Presidential Candidate Walker

Well these numbers are quite intriguing, aren't they?

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds that Scott Walker's recent actions have significantly increased enthusiasm among Republicans in the state for his White House bid- but also left him well behind Hillary Clinton in a potential general election match up.

Overall only 35% of voters in Wisconsin want Walker to run for President, compared to 58% who don't think he should run. Those findings are pretty much par for the course for a Presidential candidate in their own state- voters are rarely enthusiastic about their native sons aiming for the White House.

Walker's approval numbers have also significantly dipped over the last few months though. Right before the election last fall we found him with a 49/47 approval spread. That's now dropped to 43/52. His numbers with both Democrats and Republicans are pretty much where they were four months ago. But he's seen a large decline with independents- where he was on narrowly positive ground with them before the election at a 48/45 spread, he's now dropped down to 36/57. The new right to work law is likely part of what's causing Walker problems- only 42% of voters support it, pretty much mirroring his approval rating.

The same poll asked respondents who they'd vote for in a presidential election between Walker and Hillary Clinton, and Clinton leads 52/43 in a hypothetical contest. Walker also trails Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, albeit by only 3 points each (48-45 against both).

The more interesting part about the Walker-Clinton matchup is that it's the only matchup that PPP tested which had Hillary over the crucial 50% figure.

Clinton is strong against the entire Republican field in Wisconsin. There's not much evidence from anything in this poll that she's facing any real backlash over the controversy related to her e-mails. The GOP hopeful who comes closest to Clinton in the state is Rand Paul who's still 6 points behind at 48/42. Mike Huckabee trails by 7 at 47/40, Rick Perry and Marco Rubio lag by 8 at 48/40, Chris Christie joins Walker in being down by 9 at 48/39, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz have a 10 point deficit at 49/39, and Ben Carson's 11 point gap is the greatest at 49/38.

What this tells you is that more voters asked in the poll weren't sure about what to think of a matchup with Clinton among other potential GOP candidates, but many more DO know Scott Walker, and they don't want to vote for him.

And lest you think this is an overly slanted poll for Dems, given that many primary-level voters were asked, meaning that there were more liberals and conservatives compared to moderates than what you would find in a presidential election, check out this cross-tab, which is on Page 8 of PPP's report.

Walker approval-disapproval rating, PPP poll March 2015
Very liberal 12-86
Somewhat liberal 8-87
moderate 26-67
somewhat conservative 74-22
very conservative 85-12

That's right, 2/3 of moderates disapprove of Walker's performance these days. That same group would also vote 64-26 for Hillary Clinton over Walker, and disapproved of right-to- work-for-less legislation by a 2-1 margin. And moderates typically make up around 40% or more of the presidential electorate in Wisconsin, which would reduce both liberals and conservatives in PPP's sample. Given that Walker's 26% approval rating among moderates is less than his 43% approval overall, it is reasonable to think Walker's approval with the general electorate would be even lower.

What we're finding is that as more low-info and moderate voters realize Scott Walker played them for suckers in the November 2014 election, and is using the people of Wisconsin as lab rats while he passes extreme legislation he did not run on, they don't appreciate it. And they'll probably hate it even more as the state's lagging job growth, questionable policies on health care, and cruel, arbitrary budget cuts cause even more damage to the state. Hmmm, maybe the Wisconsin Dems should have based their campaign on "Scott Walker doesn't give a shit about you or Wisconsin and is hurting this state", instead of....whatever central message they based their 2014 campaign on.

In fact, it seems that the more that he acts like GOP presidential candidate Scott Walker and less like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, more people in Wisconsin come to the realization that he is bad news, and dislike him (to which I say "WELCOME TO THE PARTY PAL!")

So let me offer some free advice to the Walker 2016 campaign. It seems that you're ticking off Wisconsinites by the day, as you pass legislation geared toward impressing the bubble-worlders and bigots that make up the GOP primary crowd. In fact, you won't be able to win Wisconsin if you continue on this path, and Dems winning the state by 10 points would likely flip the State Senate and put the gerrymandered State Assembly in play. If you want to be the GOP's presidential candidate in 2016 and have any chance of winning your home state, while keeping the Wisconsin GOP in power in the Legislature, there seems to be one clear option.

RESIGN AS GOVERNOR. It's not like you're actually doing your taxpayer-funded job these days to begin with.

A tale of two pictures in Fitzwalkerstan

Sometimes pictures really do tell a lot, and today was absolutely one of those days.

In suburban Milwaukee, here is the photo-op of Gov Scott Walker signing the (right-to) work-for-less bill.



Pretty monolithic crowd, isn't it? Bain Capital era Mitt Romney thinks that group looks too corporate, white and male.

The signing took place at Badger Meter, a company that claims work-for-less is necessary to keep jobs in Wisconsin, but one who has taken home $130 million in profits over the last 12 months, and have previously outsourced numerous jobs to Mexico. Capper at Cognitive Dissidence has plenty more on just what a lowlife Badger Meter CEO Rich Meeusen is, and how much of a taker his company has become- which makes it fitting that Walker and a number of other arrogant white men showed up there today to celebrate the screwing over of working people.

Now, let's compare with the picture that took place today is Madison, where an estimated 1,500 students and others took to the streets to complain about the killing of unarmed 19-year-old Tony Robinson at a home on Williamson Street on Friday night.



Slightly different crowd isn't it? And probably not as connected to the decision-makers at the Capitol as the guys in suits in the Walker picture are. As a sidelight, I sure wonder how many of those white guys in suits were allegedly darting in and out of traffic in Madison and doing other idiocies on Friday nights when they were 19? Why didn't they get the death penalty Tony Robinson got?

And why does our media gear 9 hours of AM talk a day and newspaper articles toward the white guys in suits and other fools in the "Stand with Walker" crowd? This one-sided megaphone goes a long way toward explaining the anger and outrage that led to that diverse group to take to the streets in Madison today- because lots of people are being left out and feel they are not receiving a fair shake by this state and this country in 2015, and that their voices are getting ignored.

Maybe those were the type of difficult gotcha questions our "Unintimidated" governor was trying to avoid today, as he refused to take questions at the work-for-less event from the media (this has become a habit of "Mr. Unintimidated"). Because the "divide and conquer" mentality of the white guys in suits at Badger Meter and the media that panders to their interests go a long way toward explaining the mess that we see on the other end of the racial and socioeconomic scale in this state. And why it'll take a long time to fix the damage that has been inflicted in this state over the last 4+ years, because the idea of governance and respecting all constituents is completely out the window in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan.

Remembering Jon Stewart's great CNBC rip job

Last week marked the 6-year anniversary of one of the best Daily Show segments ever. It is still an epic smackdown that reverberates to this day, and also note the DOW was around 7,000 at when Koch front man Rick Santelli ranted against helping homeowners (DOW's close on Friday? 17,856. Damn socialist Obama).

The Daily Show
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Stewart's "FUCK YOU" to Carl Quintanilla and Allen "110 years in prison for fraud" Stanford summed up what most Americans were feeling at the time, as more than 700,000 jobs had been cut in the previous month, 5 million jobs had been lost in the previous 12 months, and nearly another 3 million were going to be lost in the next 6 months.

Stewart's killer segment feels like it came from an entirely different era, especially since we have 8 million more jobs today than we had in those dark times of March 2009, and the market has made back all of its losses and then some, but it needs to be remembered. Especially since most of those guilty of wrecking the economy never paid a punishment close to worthy of the damage that they caused, and most of the alleged "business journalists" that failed in their duty to inform the public have been kept on the job, misinforming viewers to this day.

Watching that video also leaves me quite melancholy, as I wonder if this country ever learns from its disasters these days, or if it just runs and hides to the paid lairs and puppet politicians to deflect from the awful reality that needs to be confronted. And I also wonder who will take Jon's place next year to line up the facts and speak truth to the huge corporate-friendly powers that control far too much of our "regular" media.

50 years after Selma, Wisconsin must choose fear or love.

I may not always agree with everything our president says or does, and while we are in much better economic place than the disaster that he walked into in 2009, and while we finally have achieved great strides on the front of marriage equality, I often feel he hasn't gone far enough to solve the massive problems that plague our country. But there is also no question that Barack Obama understands what those issues are, and that he knows what a positive outcome would be.

And the man can definitely rise to the occasion with the power of words to sum up the moment, as he did again yesterday in Selma, Alabama. The whole speech is great, and I recommend you read it in its entirety. But here's a small segment that not only celebrates how far we come, but it also reminds us that there is much more work and action to be done. And yes, this is something WE ALL have a stake in.

We know the march is not yet over. We know the race is not yet won. We know that reaching that blessed destination where we are judged, all of us, by the content of our character requires admitting as much, facing up to the truth. “We are capable of bearing a great burden,” James Baldwin once wrote, “once we discover that the burden is reality and arrive where reality is.”

There’s nothing America can’t handle if we actually look squarely at the problem. And this is work for all Americans, not just some. Not just whites. Not just blacks. If we want to honor the courage of those who marched that day, then all of us are called to possess their moral imagination. All of us will need to feel as they did the fierce urgency of now. All of us need to recognize as they did that change depends on our actions, on our attitudes, the things we teach our children. And if we make such an effort, no matter how hard it may sometimes seem, laws can be passed, and consciences can be stirred, and consensus can be built. (Applause.)

With such an effort, we can make sure our criminal justice system serves all and not just some. Together, we can raise the level of mutual trust that policing is built on –- the idea that police officers are members of the community they risk their lives to protect, and citizens in Ferguson and New York and Cleveland, they just want the same thing young people here marched for 50 years ago -– the protection of the law. (Applause.) Together, we can address unfair sentencing and overcrowded prisons, and the stunted circumstances that rob too many boys of the chance to become men, and rob the nation of too many men who could be good dads, and good workers, and good neighbors. (Applause.)

With effort, we can roll back poverty and the roadblocks to opportunity. Americans don’t accept a free ride for anybody, nor do we believe in equality of outcomes. But we do expect equal opportunity. And if we really mean it, if we’re not just giving lip service to it, but if we really mean it and are willing to sacrifice for it, then, yes, we can make sure every child gets an education suitable to this new century, one that expands imaginations and lifts sights and gives those children the skills they need. We can make sure every person willing to work has the dignity of a job, and a fair wage, and a real voice, and sturdier rungs on that ladder into the middle class.

The events in my hometown and home state from this week show that the problems President Obama mentioned are especially relevant, with hundreds protesting and chanting "The whole damn system is guilty as hell" after Madison police officer killing an unarmed black 19-year-old on Williamson Street Friday night. And NPR had a long report on the same day of the shooting that went into long detail on inequities in Wisconsin and the state's largest city in a story titled "Why is Milwaukee So Bad for Black People?"

The state also has the largest achievement gap between black and white students in the country, and ranks last in reading comprehension tests among black fourth-graders. Milwaukee has the most black students in the state and is the biggest contributor to Wisconsin's achievement gap. Its public school system has been plagued by federal and state funding cuts and a 20-year-old school choice program that diverts public tax dollars to private schools through vouchers. With 4-out-of-5 black children in Wisconsin living in poverty, an inadequate education can set up the most vulnerable students for failure....

Incarceraton

Over the past decade, many states have transitioned to policies that favor rehabilitation over incarceration. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has actually invested more in public and private prisons over the last 20 years. The state budget now allots more funding for corrections than it does for higher education. Wisconsin also incarcerates the most black men in the country, and in Milwaukee County, more than half of all black men in their 30s and 40s have served time. In the 53206 Zip Code alone [inner-city Milwaukee], 62 percent of all men have spent time in an adult correctional facility by age 34.

So what is our state leadership doing about these real 21st-Century problems of racial inequity in Wisconsin? By trying to turn up the hate and isolating the blame with the minority communities instead of taking ownership and steps to improve the situation. It is telling that the rise of Scott Walker has been achieved with a huge amount of help from Milwaukee hate radio, which broadcasts to a often-bigoted white, suburban audience, and gives no time to voices from progressives and minorities in the urban community. This is a symbiotic relationship best summed up in Alec MacGillis' excellent article from last June titled "The Unelectable Whiteness of Scott Walker." MacGillis notes that Walker's appeal to certain voters is derived from hatred of "others" and economic superiority, and won't work in the vast majority of a country which is less racist and more equal than Wisconsin.

.... Unlike Mitt Romney, or, for that matter, John McCain, he is beloved by the conservative base, but he has the mien of a mainstream candidate, not a favorite of the fringe. His boosters, who include numerous greenroom conservatives in Washington and major donors around the country, such as the Koch brothers, see him as the rare Republican who could muster broad national support without yielding a millimeter on doctrine.

This interpretation of Walker’s appeal could hardly be more flawed. He has succeeded in the sort of environment least conducive to producing a candidate capable of winning a national majority. Over the past few decades, Walker’s home turf of metropolitan Milwaukee has developed into the most bitterly divided political ground in the country—“the most polarized part of a polarized state in a polarized nation,” as a recent series by Craig Gilbert in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel put it. Thanks to a quirk of twentieth-century history, the region encompasses a heavily Democratic and African American urban center, and suburbs that are far more uniformly white and Republican than those in any other Northern city, with a moat of resentment running between the two zones. As a result, the area has given rise to some of the most worrisome trends in American political life in supercharged form: profound racial inequality, extreme political segregation, a parallel-universe news media. These trends predate Walker, but they have enabled his ascent, and his tenure in government has only served to intensify them. Anyone who believes that he is the Republican to save his party—let alone win a presidential election—needs to understand the toxic and ruptured landscape he will leave behind.

This week's events show you have two choices on how you want to deal with racial relations in the 21st Century in America. You can choose a shared vision of prosperity and care about the fates of your fellow Americans, regardless of the race or background of those individuals, as President Obama encourages. Or you can choose the Scott Walker and AM620/1130 mentality of "divide and conquer", shelter yourself off in your little community, define yourself by your superiority to others instead of trying to excel yourself, and cast aside those who may not have been as fortunate as you.

I keep going back to this excellent speech from comic Bill Hicks in the early '90s. The numbers and issues may be a bit different, but the choice is the same. Fear or love?