Republicans do not work in good faith- are WisDems finally getting it?

At least on one issue, it’s nice to see some left-leaning political folks in this state make statements that seem to finally recognize the type of slime that they are dealing with from the other side. And that today’s Republicans can’t be trusted with any procedure that they might abuse to further their power and interests. I generated both of these thoughts based on this week’s filings in the Wisconsin gerrymandering lawsuit, and the resulting reactions.

To review, last month a federal court panel said WisGOP illegally gerrymandered State Assembly (and by proxy, State Senate) districts, and required both the pro-Dem plaintiffs and the WisGOP defendants (aka Brad Schimel’s Wisconsin Department of “Justice”) to file briefs saying how they would like to see the state’s district map re-drawn. And I know this will shock you, but Wisconsin’s hack of an Attorney General wants to give the GOP-run Legislature another chance to re-rig draw the maps.

Schimel is asking the court to keep the map in place for now and wait until the U.S. Supreme Court makes a ruling on the issue. If it decides the map needs to be replaced, it should direct the Legislature redraw it to comply with its ruling, according to his brief.

"The Legislature, the Court, and the parties should not expend resources drawing and debating a plan that is merely a placeholder until the Supreme Court rules on the issue," Schimel wrote.

In their brief, the plaintiffs argue that the judges' November ruling means that the process for creating new maps should begin immediately and the current map should be eliminated…

In one proposal, the plaintiffs suggest an April 1, 2017, deadline for the Legislature to create and approve a new map, and an October 1, 2017, deadline for the court to approve or reject what the Legislature passes and create an alternative.

That proposal "leaves ample time for Wisconsin’s elected branches to enact a remedial plan: 130 days from the Court’s liability ruling, or nearly 50 percent longer than it took for the Current Plan to be designed and passed in 2011," the plaintiffs wrote.

This whole “trust us” routine by the Republicans mirrors the way they slow-walked remedies to their illegal voter ID scheme, culminating in little being done to prevent Wisconsinites from being disenfranchised before November’s elections. That along with other voter suppression methods in Dem-leaning cities played a key role in allowing Donald Trump and Ron Johnson to slip by in the statewide elections, so “Mission Accomplished” in WisGOP world.

And if you’ve been paying attention to this week’s disgrace in North Carolina, it shows how foolish Democrats and judges end up looking when they trust Republicans to “do the right thing.”

The special session was set in motion this week when Democratic Gov.-elect Roy Cooper successfully lobbied the Charlotte City Council to gut a local nondiscrimination ordinance that Republicans had blamed for necessitating the statewide law.

For months, Republicans had said if Charlotte repealed its ordinance, the legislature would consider repealing HB2.

Republican Gov. Pat McCrory called a special session Wednesday, but the deal fell apart when the GOP added a six-month moratorium on cities passing nondiscrimination ordinances for LGBT people. That caused Democrats to back away, calling it only a partial repeal.

The sticking point was a measure in the Senate that would have barred from local governments from passing ordinances that expanded non-discrimination protections until next summer.

To review, the City of Charlotte gets rid of their non-discrimination ordinance, expecting the gerrymandered NC GOP Legislature to then repeal the anti-LGBT statewide bill, then the NCGOP plays games and keeps the anti-gay law in place anyway! The scum that makes up the ALEC whores in the NC GOP were probably high-fiving in the back rooms and snickering “Got those stupid Dems again!”

That act in North Carolina and the WisGOP’s past history in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan should tell you never to trust a GOP to do anything honorable until they actually act by force of legislation or law. And to my pleasant surprise, both of Wisconsin’s Dem leaders in the Legislature came out today saying the same thing, at least when it came to fixing the illegal gerrymandering.

First off was Senate Dem leader Jen Shilling.

“The court already determined that Republican politicians broke the law when they rigged elections in their favor. It’s unbelievable that Attorney General Schimel wants to rely on that same broken system that Republicans abused rather than standing up for Wisconsin citizens and their constitutional rights.

“Democrats believe every voter deserves to have their voice heard. It’s time we reform our broken redistricting process to take politics out of the equation, empower citizens and create more competitive district maps.”

And soon after, Assembly Dem Leader Peter Barca finally got out of his “nice guy” crouch and called out the GOP’s scumminess.

“Wisconsin Republicans passed a map that has been called one of the worst examples of partisan gerrymandering in modern history. The federal court confirmed that this political power grab was so egregious that it violated the U.S. Constitution.

“Our government is predicated on the right of voters to choose their elected leaders. The court found Republicans went out of their way to draw a blatantly partisan map and undermine the representational rights of many state voters.

How can these same politicians be trusted to create a legal map now? “Action should be taken as soon as possible to begin the process of developing constitutional district maps so that voters can choose their political leaders and not have politicians choose their voters.”

There you go! Now get that message over to a larger audience outstate (HINT: Billboards, letters to local newspapers and radio ads), and STICK WITH IT, and I might start to think the Dem leaders in this state are finally beginning to get a clue as to how to properly respond to this GOP garbage.

Hey WisGOPs- wanna stop worrying about "The Problem of Whiteness"? Then FREE BUCKY

You may have heard about a recent kerfuffle involving my alma mater and a certain course that’s being offered next semester. I imagine it’s playing big on hate radio (including some Badger sports affiliates) and the right-wing Bubble World, complete with complaints about “that lib’rul indoctrination mill at Madison.”

But the difference is that in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, today’s Wisconsin GOP feels emboldened to use state tax dollars as a way to censor what is being taught at UW schools.

A Republican lawmaker called for UW-Madison to cancel a planned course on racism and fire its professor for posting tweets the legislator said condoned violence against police officers, warning Tuesday that the class could affect the university’s funding in the next state budget.

State Rep. Dave Murphy, R-Greenville, said he believes the course in the university’s African Cultural Studies department called “The Problem of Whiteness” is inappropriate and a waste of money. Murphy joined Sen. Steve Nass, R-Whitewater, in saying that how the university handles the controversy over the spring 2017 course could have ramifications for its request for new state funding in the 2017-19 budget….

Murphy said [Damon] Sajnani should be fired for the “vile” tweets.

“If UW-Madison stands with this professor, I don’t know how the university can expect the taxpayers to stand with UW-Madison,” Murphy said.

Sajnani, an assistant professor in his first year at UW-Madison, declined an interview request Tuesday, citing “the preponderance of white supremacist backlash against myself and the UW community.”

Umm, excuse me Rep. Murphy. I’m a taxpayer who pays more taxes because my UW-Madison education helped me to get a higher salary, and you bet your ass I stand behind the school (and I’m so sick of that framing, where righties think that white guys in private sector jobs are the only ones who pay taxes and/or own homes). And to their credit, both UW-Madison Administration and the UW-Madison chapter of the American Association of University Professors said they had Sajnani's back, and warned against legislators trying to bully UW professors on the content of their classes.

But I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt, Rep. Murphy. Maybe the concept of highly educated people working hard, paying taxes and having the existing paradigm questioned confuses SOMEONE WHO LACKS A 4-YEAR COLLEGE DEGREE LIKE YOURSELF. Your background is being a “big fish, small ponder”, yucking it up with other old white guys at the Greenville Lions Club, so deep thoughts on race in our society probably doesn't seep in much back in G'ville, other than to complain about "those people in the cities."

I have a second thought on the “Problem of Whiteness” course faux-tro-versy. Given how a whole lot of white guys have reacted to the economic and social changes of the 21st Century, and have lashed out by supporting race-baiting regressives like Donald Trump and Scott Walker who say they’ll “make America/Wisconsin great again,” isn’t it worthy to have a course that looks into why so many of these white guys feel entitled to a better position in life? I know GOPs aren’t too keen on learning from history, but believe me, it has a value, and maybe it can help all of us understand why the last 20-30 years have been so emotionally damaging for these white guys. Maybe GOPs don't want people to find that out, so they can keep driving up resentment with the "divide and conquer" game while they keep on robbing those same working-class people with their economic policies.

It's noteworthy that while Murphy and nASS are whining about what’s going on in Madison, Wisconsin Public Radio was reporting that another UW school has needed bailouts from the rest of the UW System in recent years just to stay open, and now won’t be able to get that help going forward.

The University of Wisconsin System provided roughly $3 million over the course of three fiscal years to the University of Wisconsin-Superior to offset budget cuts, tuition freezes and fewer students, but that assistance ended this year.

UW-Superior had to save $2 million by June this year as a condition of UW System’s conditional support. The university was facing a $4.5 million shortfall. Earlier this year, UW-Superior Chancellor Renee Wachter said the university cut the deficit by more than half to roughly $2 million. But, she said they’re hopeful they won’t have to make further cuts.

"UW System and President (Ray) Cross and his team have been very supportive of the campus and have indicated that they’ll continue to be supportive," Wachter said. "A lot, of course, always depends on ... what happens with the biennial budget. Right now, nobody really knows. We’d like to be optimistic and hope for the best, but we won’t know obviously for several months."

And it’s the smaller UW System schools like Superior that have the biggest need for state taxpayer support, because of their lower donor base and because of the lack of research grants and other outside sources of funding. The article notes that Superior finally had an enrollment increase for this year after 6 straight years of declines, but given the shrinking population of the area and the fact that students could attend a better-funded University of Minnesota-Duluth nearby, counting on rising enrollment at UWS shouldn’t be expected as a solution for their funding woes.

What dimwits like Sen. nASS and Rep. Murphy need to understand is that if they cut funding to the UW System to get even with “those Madison liberals”, UW-Madison won’t be the institution that feels the most pain. It will be lower-enrollment campuses like Superior, Green Bay, River Falls and Parkside, which handle a large amount of commuter students and in many cases are the only public 4-year campus in a 40-mile radius (or more, in the case of Superior).

Which goes back to my solution for the UW System that should be the best of both worlds- FREE BUCKY BY SPINNING OFF MADISON FROM THE REST OF THE SYSTEM. Madison has the donors, the research, the large number of prospective applicants, and the self-supporting operations to “go it alone”. This cuts the cord entirely, allows the other UW Institutions to be better funded by shifting much of Madison’s state money to them, and then big-mouths like Rep. Murphy and Sen. nASS don’t need to worry about what UW-Madison is teaching, because taxpayers aren’t supporting it anyway.

I’d much prefer this solution than to see UW-Superior or River Falls or UWGB have to close because it becomes an inefficient operation due to continual cuts to funding and quality. Plus, that’s a lot of jobs to lose in certain parts of the state, and I don’t think that’s something anyone wants to see. So again, let’s use this faux-tro-versy about “The Problem of Whiteness” as the final straw, and FREE BUCKY in the 2017-19 budget.

A rant on why so many of us feel so lousy these days

It's hard to have an IQ over 80 and anything resembling a sense of decency, and not feel that there is a dark cloud hanging over this state and this country these days. The election of Trump showed just how many weak-minded, uncaring Wisconsinites we have, and that independent facts don't seem to matter to a large number of people. And the steamroller of fascism and the selling out of the American people that the Republicans are gearing up to unleash is far beyond the "typical change of power" attitude that I see all over the media. There's an MSNBC promo that sums up the arrogance and cluelessness of the Acela corridor media, which treats this as some kind of reality TV show, and "let's figure this out."

NO, MSNBC, NO! Tens of millions of people are going to see their rights and abilities to choose their own destiny to go away, and that is not what the vast majority of Americans voted for. Paul Ryan's plans to privatize Social Security and Trump appointing people to break government agencies and make them dysfunctional is not what people voted for. And then it trickles down to the state level, where our pathetic governor is now shooting his mouth off about a new Constitutional convention, an idea WHICH VIRTUALLY NO ONE IN WISCONSIN VOTED FOR THIS NOVEMBER. Oh, and lifetime politician and deficit-grower Scott Walker calling for a balanced budget amendment and term limits? That's a nice extra touch.

This garbage is unchallenged by "legitimate" Wisconsin media and gets catapulted by the paid liars on AM radio and the Internet who allow this Bubble of Bullshit among 25% of the population to grow higher and higher. The tributes that have been sent from Governor Dropout and Paul Ryan and other right-wingers to Charlie Sykes adds to my despair, because it reveals how intertwined the WisGOP machine and right-wing media is in Wisconsin- who knows where one ends and the other begins?- and how one-sided the flow of political information has become in this state. It is telling that right-wing hack Brian Fraley wrote a column today on "Wisconsin Talk Radio After Sykes" that floats the typical right-wing lie that "the marketplace" has determined right-wing talk should dominate the AM dials (Call me when Packer/Brewer flagship WTMJ or Clear Channel's WISN ever puts a left-wing show on to test that hypothesis), but also shows just how important AM radio GOP-perganda is to Wisconsin Republicans' agenda, both in floating new ideas without having their politicians be the ones talking about it, and in tricking the weak-minded fuckheads who listen to that crap.

What makes conservative talk work, and why is it so impactful in Wisconsin? It starts with provocative and insightful hosts who can speak their GOP-provided talking points with conviction do their homework and are willing to engage the audience. Lawmakers and opinion leaders help boost these shows by appearing on them and providing the hosts with news leaks and their own insight, because they recognize the importance of their audiences (especially their gullibility and racist leanings) . Finally, audience engagement is key. Amen corner shows are boring and only serve to feed the ego of a host. When callers can bring their own perspective and engage the host in an honest-to-goodness dialogue and debate, these shows are at their entertaining and informative best (if you live in a Bubble of Bullshit or are a racist moron). The intimacy of radio provides a great opportunity to establish a relationship with the suckers audience.

By the way, Charlie-tan's vomit-inducing act where he says "I don't get why right-wingers live in an alt-reality" is another reason for my disgust. Why are right-wingers like Sykes and Walker never held accountable for their constant lies and cynicism, and why aren't they made to own the wreck of today's Wisconsin that they have caused?

The lack of forceful pushback from most Democrats adds to this, from President Obama's "cut it out" act when it comes to Putin's interference in our elections, down to ineffectual state Dem "leaders" like Peter Barca, who seems to think a few words and policy statements will grab the average person's attention. I can't believe these guys don't seem to understand that THESE ARE NOT NORMAL TIMES, and Republicans have not and will not played by the rules of fairness and law. So why are we pretending that "the system will work itself out" and using convention methods? THAT IS NOT SUCCEEDING THESE DAYS. Sometimes you need to understand that the circumstances and rules have changed, and sometimes you need to get your hands dirty and say and do some not-so-pretty things if you're ever going to get things back to lawfulness and respectability. And you need to invade the Bubble of Bullshit that exists in most of lower-info/right-wing Wisconsin- press releases aren't something they're going to see or pay attention to.

I admit I am part of this problem. I have a nice job and a nice existence, and I have a hard time trying to figure out a proper response to all the madness. Should I ditch work and march to the Capitol and maybe break the law to make GOPs feel real pain for the damage they are doing (and maybe that pain has to be literal, if that's what it takes to get through to those psychopaths)? Doesn't seem like that would accomplish much, and the vermin infecting the Capitol aren't really worth throwing my life away for. In addition, blowing up my frustration by screaming at right-wing trolls on this forum or other sites just gives those dead-end losers the attention they need (though I admit it can be fun to make them a laughingstock in front of the other readers).

But I also believe in the Edmund Burke statement of "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." To stand by as my state and this country are FUBARed and thrown down the drain isn't something I can accept either. The GOPs want us to be demoralized and shocked and to throw our hands up and let them get away with their plunder. And I'll be damned if I give those scumbags the reaction they want.

I do have a sort of idealism where I believe that there can be a serious reversal where the average dope realizes that corporate slime and GOP-puppet politicians are the ones who have been wrecking this state and this country, and there is a mass uprising that tosses all of them out and into the dustbin of history. However, 6 years of waiting for that moment has grown me past the point of patience, especially with the backstop of the Federal Government going away with Orange Mussolini and his Band of Vandals.

I've been trying to be wise with my spending and only giving to eateries and businesses that are socially worthy of my money, which clears my conscience some, but it doesn't seem to stop the greed of the John Menard types, and far too many people are willing to nod their heads and go on with things as long as they aren't touched by the destruction. I don't want to be preachy and want to enjoy life, so I'm not inclined to get too heavy into convincing others to change their ways and sacrifice for the common good. But I'm also not enjoying a lot of what I see outside of my own personal situation, and the moral emptiness, limited vision, and greed that far too many of my fellow white men have chosen to impose on the rest of America makes me ill.

I really don't know what the proper response to all of this is, and I imagine many of you feel the same. I think a lot of the pit in my stomach that exists today is because I fear that the legal, proper ways of appealing to reason and common decency don't go far enough in 2016-17, and that some really bad things are going to have to be done- either by the good guys or the bad guys (or both). But we need to figure it out fast, because as we've seen in Wisconsin, the GOPs don't really care about doing things the right way- they just want to grab power and be seen as "active reformers", regardless of how anti-democratic, reckless and damaging those acts may be. And we need to be out ahead of it and continually sending the message to bystanders that THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE, THIS IS NOT WHO WE ARE, AND WE WILL NOT BE A PART OF IT.

Thanks for letting me rant. I guess this outpouring clears some of the gloom that clouds me, at least in the short term. But there's a lot of sunlight that needs to come out to make me feel warmer and calmer.

Local sales taxes up in big cities, but varies widely Up North

With the calendar year ending, that also means the end of the fiscal year for Wisconsin's local governments. With that in mind, I was thinking about one of those governments' revenue sources that can double as an indicator of the economy in a certain area- local sales tax revenues.

Most (although not all) Wisconsin counties have a 0.5% sales tax to supplement property taxes and state shared aids/revenues as the most common sources to fund their operations. And therefore, a bump in sales taxes can avoid an increase in property taxes, or it can cushion the blow from lower aids from the state. Likewise, a drop in sales tax revenues require other taxes to pick up the slack, or they require service cuts and deferred maintenance on things such as roads.

With that in mind, I took a look at the state's listing of county sales tax revenues. These funds are distributed from the state with a two-month lag (October's taxes are sent out in December, for example), to make sure the figures are accurate for the time period listed. It appears that the December distributions to counties haven't been posted yet, so I decided to look at the January-November totals from 2016, and compare it for the first 11 months of 2014 and 2015 to get an accurate picture.

Overall, county sales tax distributions looked good through November- they were up $10.3 million (3.3%) compared to 2015 and nearly $18 million compared to 2014 (5.9%). And perhaps not surprisingly, the largest gainers in county sales taxes (and by proxy, increases in state sales taxes) were the state's two largest (and most Democratic) counties. Two others in the top 5 were counties in South Central Wisconsin that border Illinois, who has a higher sales tax than Wisconsin.

Largest gains in county sales tax revs, 2015 vs 2016
Milwaukee Co. $2,301,925
Dane County $1,958,516
Rock County $856,126
Marathon Co. $665,300
Walworth Co. $521,465

Interestingly, four of the largest GOP-voting counties for 2016 in Wisconsin (Waukesha, Winnebago, Outagamie and Brown) are among the 10 who don't have a sales tax in 2016. I'm not sure what that signifies or why these areas feel they can make it without a need for a sales tax, but they'd better hope sprawl continues to allow them to add to their property tax and population base.

But I digress. What's also noteworthy is that there has been a wide variance among counties in their changes in sales tax revenue in recent years. Compared to 2014, 1/6 of Wisconsin's 72 counties have seen double-digit increases, and the top 5 are in the northeastern quarter of the state.



I'll note that most of the northern Wisconsin counties on this list have had stagnant job growth at best over the last 2 years, so it's a good bet much of this is tourist/retiree spending.

On the flip side, there are parts of Wisconsin that have seen drops in the amount of local sales taxes collected, indicating tough times for both the economy and local tourism. Many of these are located in the western half of the state, and the biggest drops have been in counties that once were the home of large-scale manufacturing, but has now fallen on hard times with declining populations.



Wood County's drop in sales tax revenue is especially shocking, down by more than $1.28 million compared to 2014, helping explain a 6.8% increase in the Wood County property tax rate on this year's bills. Even worse, neighboring Portage County has seen its sales taxes rise by 13.3% over the last 2 years.

I also wonder what effect the floods of this Summer have had on Douglas, Ashland, Jackson and Buffalo Counties, as all 4 of those counties had increases in sales tax revenue in 2015, but have dropped below their 2014 AND 2015 levels for this year. Douglas County has especially suffered so far, with a loss of over $500,000 in sales taxes compared to last year. Bayfield County also nearly made this last chart, with their sales taxes being down more than 3% this year, and only up 0.85% compared to 2014. This seems to indicate that getting state and federal aid to these areas to rebuild the damaged infrastructure from the storms is all the more vital, and may not be able to wait through this year's budget deliberations.

Lastly, for those of you who are inclined to direct your tourism dollars to places based on who they vote for, I'll note that the northern counties which have seen the largest increases in county sales taxes have slanted hard toward the Republicans who don't seem to care much about protecting the beautiful scenery or improving the rural schools of that part of the state - the anti-environment and school voucher-supported Tom Tiffany is the State Senator for many of those counties. So far that attitude of voting against hasn't bitten those places in the ass when it comes to getting the tourism spending that allows it to thrive, and I wonder if in the Trump rera, some start to draw that connection....or force those places to take a hit for backing such regressive idiocy.

As for the places that are suffering the losses in sales tax revenue, I'll note that Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas Counties all voted for Hillary Clinton and Russ Feingold, while Jackson and Buffalo Counties were among the "Obama/Trump" counties in the state. Wood County went for Trump by more than 19% over Clinton, and Rusk County voted more than 2-to-1 for Drumpf over Hillary. If you're making your 2017 plans around this time, I suppose that might be a consideration.

Yes, the Walker jobs gap really is well over 100,000

I saw a recent post from Political Heat's Chris Walker which discussed the most recent Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages. That QCEW report came out about 10 days ago, and Chris noted the low figures for Wisconsin under Scott Walker and the Wisconsin GOP in comparison to the rest of the country.

Since 2011, Wisconsin has grown private sector jobs at a rate of 6.99 percent. That’s an average rate of growth of about 1.4 percent per year.

That sounds pretty decent, but don’t celebrate quite yet: the U.S. rate of private sector jobs growth during that same timeframe was about 9.39 percent, or about 1.88 percent per year. In other words, the rest of the nation has, on average, created jobs at a rate that’s 34 percent faster than Wisconsin.

If we had created jobs at the national average rate, Wisconsin would have created more than 55,000 additional jobs over the past five years. But we didn’t create jobs at the national rate -- and have instead seen 20 consecutive quarters of below-average jobs growth in the state since Walker’s first budget took effect.

That's not good, but it also is very different from what I've had for a "Walker jobs gap", which uses a slightly different metric (monthly jobs reports vs. QCEW), but shouldn't be that far off. My estimate of the Walker jobs gap in the private sector was around 74,000 from June 2011 to June 2016, and is 111,000 if you back to the start of Walker/WisGOP's Reign of Error and take it forward to today.



In addition, because I'm a geek who looks at these numbers far too much for normal sanity, Chris Walker's estimates of 9.39% US private sector job growth for the last 5 years seemed low to me, given that I know the US has averaged well above 2% job growth a year in the private sector in recent years. But because I'm not a shriveldicked Republican, I also wasn't going to assume what I had figured was automatically correct.

And so I dug into the press release Chris included in his post, and I figured out the disparity. When you look at that June 2011 report and then compare it to the most recent QCEW that ended in June 2016, you'll see the following figure.

Total jobs US, June 2011-June 2016
June 2011 130,469,900
June 2016 142.717,200
CHANGE +12,247,300 (+9.39%)

The problem is that it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. The 6.99% increase in Wisconsin that Chris Walker references is PRIVATE SECTOR jobs, not total jobs, so we need to make dual comparisons to figure out what the true Walker jobs gap is from June 2011 to June 2016- one for total jobs, and one for private sector jobs. This means a starting point of

June 2011-June 2016 QCEW stats
June 2011-June 2016 US total jobs +9.39%
June 2011-June 2016 Wis total jobs +5.79%

June 2011-June 2016 US private jobs +12.34%
June 2011-June 2016 Wis private jobs +6.99%

June 2011-June 2016 Wis total job change +156,958
June 2011-June 2016 Wis total job change at 9.39% +254,591
June 2011-June 2016 Walker total jobs gap +97,633

June 2011-June 2016 Wis private job change +152,406
June 2011-June 2016 Wis private job change at 12.34% +260,860
June 2011-June 2016 Walker private jobs gap +108,454

So yes, Walker/WisGOP policies have cost us a lot more than 55,000 jobs between June 2011 and June 2016- they've actually cost us nearly twice as much as that. In fact, we'd be over Scott Walker's promise of 250,000 jobs if we had merely kept up with the rest of the country. And since those QCEW figures don't account for the January-June 2011 or June-November 2016 time periods, 111,000 is a plausible figure for the overall private sector Walker jobs gap. In fact, it'll likely look worse as we go into the coming months and the monthly figures are benchmarked to the lower QCEW growth figures.

Yes, we have fallen FAR behind in Wisconsin since 2011. And yet dimwitted voters decided to return the same GOP legislators to power this November despite this record of failure. You have one last chance in 2018 to stop this madness, both at the Governor and Legislative level (with the potential of new, fairer districts allowing for more change in the Legislature). C'mon Wisconsin, don't you believe we should be doing better than this crap?

Rising inflation and GOP wage suppression = bad combination

In addition to the monthly state jobs report, there was another bit of economic data that came out last week that caught my eye. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that inflation in the US is on its way up, largely due to the rising home and rent prices, and gas prices bouncing off their previously-low levels.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported [Thursday]. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The shelter and gasoline indexes continued to rise in November, and were again the main reasons for the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The shelter index advanced 0.3 percent in November, while the gasoline index increased 2.7 percent.

That 1.7% annual increase doesn't sound like much, but it's the largest 12-month jump in inflation in over 2 years. Even worse, prices have gone up 1.1% over the last 4 months, in contrast to actual declines in inflation last winter, so that annual figure is likely to climb well over 2% in the next few months.

In addition, while the rise in inflation is going on, workers' wages aren't getting the same bump. Another report released by the BLS on Thursday showed that workers actually fell behind in two ways in November.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1 percent decrease in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.3 percent over the month due to the decrease in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.

Some of the decline in average hourly earnings was a logical mini-correction from the 0.4% increase for October. But some of that October increase was also eaten up by inflation last month, and if you look at the year-long trend, you'll see that prices have gone up compared to this time last year, but the wage increases are no different.

Average hourly earnings, 12-month change
Nov 2015 +2.4%
Nov 2016 +2.5%

Average weekly earnings, 12-month change
Nov 2015 +2.1%
Nov 2016 +2.2%

Real hourly earnings, 12-month change
Nov 2015 +1.9%
Nov 2016 +0.8%

Real weekly earnings, 12-month change
Nov 2015 +1.7%
Nov 2016 +0.5%

I don't see a lot of indications that the trend of limited wage increases and rising prices will reverse soon, especially in Wisconsin. Gasoline prices have continued to climb in December (I paid $2.09 this morning) and with oil futures jumping near 20% in the last month, that won't go down. But WMC and their WisGOP puppets are trying to suppress wages further, and Assembly Speaker Robbin' Vos openly promoted this suppression yesterday in a press release bragging about the GOP Legislature's "accomplishments".

The first of 16 Assembly GOP wins is being released today. The implementation of prevailing wage is the first accomplishment highlighted. This reform that eliminates a set wage for local government construction projects officially goes into place on January 1, 2017.

“As one of the leaders who helped shepherd through the reform, more taxpayer dollars can be saved by eliminating the prevailing wage in state projects,” said Speaker Vos. “A full prevailing wage repeal should be considered as part of a comprehensive transportation funding package.”

So it seems more likely that instead of "making America great again" for workers, the next 2 years under Trump and WisGOP control are more likely to make things worse. Now combine the mediocre wages with the recent spike in interest rates lead to increased mortgage payments and a popping of the current mini-bubble in housing, and you've got a recipe for the middle class to fall further behind the richest Americans, with inequality crippling the economy even more.

Which brings me to ask a simple question for many of you blue-collar white Wisconsinites. How's that "voting Republican" solution going to work for you when it comes to paying your (increasingly more expensive) bills?

Did lagging Midwest job growth elect Trump...by design?

Today featured the release of the state-by-state November jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. And it gives further evidence toward a theory I had about the November election. When you look at Wisconsin and the rest of the Rust Belt/Upper Midwest, you can see where "economic anxiety" could exist, and lead a previously Dem-leaning state to flip towards Donald Trump.

Remember that the five of the six Trump states that voted for Barack Obama in 2012 are states that have Big Ten schools in them. And with the exception of Michigan, if you compare their job creation record to how the rest of the country had been doing in the last year in comparison to those Obama-to-Trump states, you'll see that these places were badly lagging the rest of the US.

Private sector job growth, Nov 2015-Nov 2016
Mich +2.04%
U.S. +1.68%
Wis. +1.02%
Iowa +0.87%
Penn +0.83%
Ohio +0.82%

And even Michigan's strong numbers come with a "but", as they lost 8,300 private sector jobs in November. So while the nationwide numbers would indicate that the economy was still relatively going strong, those swingy states weren't doing as well (especially outside of big cities), and Trump was able to exploit those fears. That's because if you look at the 2 houses of the Legislature and the Governors' seats in those 5 Obama-to-Trump states, Republicans run 13 of those 15 institutions, and have at least 2 out of 3 in all of them. In fact, Republicans have pretty much run things in all of those states since the 2010 elections, and you can see things aren't really working out.

UW Professor Menzie Chinn mentioned another GOP-run economic failure- Kansas, who has faced chronic budget deficits since cutting taxes 4 years ago, and has lost 4,500 jobs over the last 12 months, while previously Dem-governed Missouri has gained 53,400. This identifies the opportunities for Dems, if the party ever grows a pair (yes, this is a big IF). Because the "economically anxious" members of the Midwestern Trump states should get their attention drawn to the fact that more progressive places like Minnesota (+1.33% private sector job growth last 12 months), the Pacific Coast (California, Washington and Oregon all have job growth of 2.3% or above), and Massachusetts (2.9% unemployment). All those states have Dem governors and/or Legislatures, and are kicking ass, and you'd think Dems might want to point these facts out, but somehow they don't seem too willing to do so, which probably is why they stay in the minority in far too many other states.

Here's more information that Wisconsin Dems could point out. With another 5,200 private sector jobs lost in November, the Walker jobs gap continues to grow. Now it's near 111,000 private sector jobs, and 105,500 overall.





Honestly, I wonder if failed GOP economic policies at the state level were done with part of the intent being to anger the average dope in those states into wanting "change" away from the Obama years.

Actually, I don't wonder all that much. I think that in Wisconsin and other ALEC-owned states in the purple Midwest, stagnating the 2015 and 2016 economy in the face of a nationwide expansion was the intelligence of ALEC's design. And now they've got the opportunity to take that regressive mentality nationwide.