Tuesday, June 5, 2018

It can't be ignored any more - local governments being "strangled" under big govt WisGOP rule.

Local officials have been drawing attention to the funding issues that have resulted from a state-mandated system that seems to have failed to keep up the realities of the 2010s. This system forces the property tax to be the main source of locally-generated revenue, and since coming to power in 2011, the Wisconsin GOP has put a lower ceiling on how much the property tax can be raised in a community in an attempt to keep those taxes low. But at the same time, the WisGOPs have refused to make up the difference in state aids, which means that local governments often don’t have as much money as they need to maintain services.

The Wisconsin Policy Forum recently looked at this issue, and noted that there is a noticeable difference across Wisconsin communities based on how much new development has happened in those places. Revenues can frequently only be raised by the amount of new construction that happens in a community in a given year, and if the community isn’t growing, then the WPF notes that some of its services suffer.
Policy Forum researchers separated the state’s cities and villages into four categories according to new construction growth. From 2011-2016, cities and villages with the highest growth – over 1.5% net new construction annually – increased property tax levies by a median of 17.9%, while the slowest-growth municipalities increased levies by just 3.2%. The report found that total municipal spending patterns mirrored levy growth, with the highest-growth municipalities spending a median 18.3% more, while the lowest-growth communities spent 3.9% more.

Although levy increases and total spending patterns mirrored total new construction growth, spending priorities differed by the rate of development. For example, while all municipalities increased spending on public safety, transportation spending varied depending on new construction growth, with the highest increases in communities with medium-low and high development.

Significantly, the report shows spending on economic development increased substantially more in high-growth municipalities compared to lower-growth areas. Low-growth communities decreased development spending by a median of 3.1% while spending in high-growth areas doubled.

Levy limits appear not to have constrained communities of any growth rate from maintaining spending on core services, such as public safety. But, the report cautions, a lack of new construction, and the additional property tax revenues that come with it, may be making it difficult for low-growth municipalities to spend more on programs to attract development. Conversely, high-growth municipalities have been able to increase levies, and spending, due to that growth. The analysis does not prove that levy limits are hampering economic development in some communities, but cautions that as these trends continue, they may contribute to a growing gap between high-and low-growth municipalities.
Which leads to a self-perpetuating cycle, where communities that can pay for extras and economic development get the added business that allows them to invest even more in those amenities. But the communities that haven’t grown have little way to dig themselves out of the hole. Given that a majority of Wisconsin cities and villages have lost population since 2010, which is when the tightest of the levy limits have been in place, that makes for a lot of places that are being deinvested.

Last week, Jerry Deschane of the League of Wisconsin Muncipalities hosted a roundtable that was broadcast on Wisconsin Eye. The title was telling: “Strangled by Levy Limits: Local Decisions in Cities and Villages Impacted by Levy Limits.”

Here’s some of the video from that discussion, and I’ll also include some highlights from the LWM’s press release that accompanied the program.


In response to a question, Deschane stated he would ask League members to stop being so diplomatic when they talk with candidates about this topic. “For years, citiesand villages have been making it work. It’s time to start telling the stories we told today. Municipalities need a more diverse revenue system, a more locally controlled system and that’s the question for candidates.”

In South Milwaukee, with a baseoperating levy of $10,774,142, the city was allowed to increase their spending under levy limits by just $9,688 last year according to Mayor [Erik] Brooks. When asked what the impact on his city would be if there were no changes, Brooks stated “You worry about all the things that governments do.... That problem neighbor you have whose lawn is a foot tall, we may notget to it as often and now its two feet tall. It may not be a draconian cut, but it’s a little slice here and there and it all adds up.”…

The City of Clintonville is a smaller community illustrative of many Wisconsin communities who, in an effort to be responsive to their citizens and retain services, are more and more dependent on borrowing. “We’re working very hard to lower our tax rate and we are looking primarily at our debt load. We’re down to bare bones. We can’t make some of the improvements that we need,” City Administrator [Sharon] Eveland said and she went on to talk about delays in needed road repairs.

Mayor Brooks concluded by saying, “Residents expect a level of service, I want to deliver that level of service but I can’t. We need flexibility and support from Madison to deliver that level of service.”
This lack of flexibility helps to explain the explosion in wheel taxes that have hit Wisconsin, resulting in state residents shelling out nearly $14 million more to register their vehicles over the last 6 years. It's either that or even more potholes and cuts in other services beyond what we are already seeing.

This is where I remind you that Wisconsin Republicans are using $48 million in tax dollars in this budget to prop up the state lottery, just so they can say "your property taxes may be $2 less than in 2014." I'll also remind you that a bill that would allow local governments to put in a 0.5% sales tax earmarked for road repairs has also been buried in the GOP Legislature for several years. A local city or town sales tax would make out-of-towners to pay for some of the roads and other services that they use, instead of putting all of the burden onto the residents of the community.

But Republicans don't seem to care much about dealing with that reality, and allowing the freeloading to continue. Which means that if you want to see local Wisconsin governments start to fill the potholes, have other infrastructure upgrades, and have parks and other amenities that make communities worth living in, you'll have to get new people in charge at the Capitol that will take the handcuffs off of those communities. The current system of "grow as much as possible to increase tax base" is causing a two-tier situation that benefits an increasingly smaller amount of Wisconsinites, while most of the rest of are falling behind. It's gotta go.

Monday, June 4, 2018

WBA is wrong two ways - 1. Trying to narrow Dem guv field 2. Making MU Law Poll the one to trust

Not that straw polls of hundreds of party members are the best way to measure if a candidate is leading or losing in the real world (hi there, 2012 Iowa GOP straw poll winner Michele Bachman!), but they do serve as at least a minor indication of who that crazy subsection of the party likes.

Which makes it noteworthy that Kelda Roys was able to consolidate enough support to get the most votes out of any candidate in the straw poll held at the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s convention in Oshkosh over the weekend


But Roys' total was less than ¼ of the total votes cast, and also notice that 7 of the 10 candidates that are on the ballot for the Dem primary received at least 10 percent of the votes cast. That means things are still very much up in the air, and that few candidates seem to be at the “no chance” level with 10 weeks left to go before the August 14 primary.

Enter the Wisconsin Broadcasters’ Association - who thinks it’s found the way to narrow that crowded field in time for the debate it is sponsoring next month.
Up to the top four (4) candidates in the Democratic gubernatorial race and Republican U.S. Senate race in the Marquette University Law School Poll (the Poll) released closest to the date of the debate will be considered as significant candidates if the other criteria set forth below are met.

O In the event that there is a tie in the Poll for the final positions in the debate, the selection among those candidates tied in the polling will be made based on which of these candidates have raised the most campaign funds according to the state and federal campaign finance reports released closest to the date of the debate.

·All candidates must be qualified for the office that they seek under federal and state law and shall either have (1) qualified for a place on the ballot or (2) demonstrated that they are bone fide write-in candidates through criteria including making appearances at rallies and campaign events statewide, having taken established positions, and provided campaign literature on a wide array of public issues, and having a substantial campaign organization including offices statewide.

·Candidates who have not raised at least $250,000 campaign funds according to state and federal campaign finance reports released closest to the date of the debate will not be considered significant candidates.
In addition to the eye-rolling decision to make money a major part of the “viability” equation (who cares about quality of the wishes of the voters?), that’s quite a shrinking of the field. And Dems did not appreciate the WBA jumping in and making this decision.
The Wisconsin Democratic Party called on the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association to reconsider.

"This is not a fair and democratic way to go," party spokeswoman Melanie Conklin said. "With these criteria it is actually quite possible than an eventual nominee is excluded from their debates."…

A spokesman for the association said the group was preparing a response to the criticism and calls for candidates to skip the event. No other broadcast debates have been announced in advance of the primary.

Ross, the liberal group [One Wisconsin Now’s] leader, said it was unfair to rely on a single poll as the primary criteria for debate inclusion. He's long questioned the merits of the Marquette poll and Charles Franklin, the pollster who leads it.

"It's not up to the broadcasters to determine who the viable candidates are and it's certainly not up to Charles Franklin," Ross said.
And Scot Ross is absolutely right. What gives the Marquette Law School poll precedence over ever other survey? If we don’t know when that poll will be taken or who is paying for it, why should it get “voice of authority” status?

Even Charles Franklin himself said that the WBA’s plan to use the MU Law poll as a velvet rope for admission to its Dem governor’s debate was a bad idea.


But there’s another reason we should be suspicious of using MU Law School Polls to guide our decision-making in elections and coverage. Go back to the start of the 2010s, and go 90 miles from MU’s west, when the Bradley Foundation front group WPRI (a group which has nauseatingly rebranded itself as the Badger Institute) tried to use the good name of UW-Madison to shade the findings of UW PoliSci professor Ken Goldstein. Bruce Murphy recounted this sketchiness in Urban Milwaukee before the 2012 elections.
But liberals were suspicious of the university lending its name — and star scholar — to a conservative think tank. Scot Ross, who then ran the liberal advocacy group One Wisconsin Now, requested Goldstein’s emails with [then-WPRI leader Gordon] Lightbourn, and found a couple eyebrow raisers, as the Associated Press reported.

Goldstein’s poll showed a majority of state residents opposed school choice, but Lightbourn demanded that Goldstein run a headline touting the finding that Milwaukee residents favored school choice. The state results were included, if you looked hard enough, but were buried in the report.

Goldstein was also asked to poll people as to whether they would support Tommy [Thompson] if he chose to run against then incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Russ Feingold [in 2010]. The results showed Thompson was favored by a small margin, and Lightbourn issued a press release claiming the poll showed Thompson would beat Feingold. The emails showed that Goldstein scolded Lightbourn for simplifying the report’s analysis this way.

In reaction, UW officials asked the WPRI to stop using the university’s logo and stopped providing graduate students to work on these polls. Within a year, Goldstein stopped doing polls for WPRI and soon took a job as president of Kantar Media CMAG, a Washington, DC-based political consulting firm. He also teaches at George Washington University.
And so who stepped up in place of Goldstein to do polls in Wisconsin?
Not long after this the Marquette Law School cut a deal with Goldstein’s longtime colleague at UW-Madison’s Political Science Department, Charles Franklin, to do polls for MU. Franklin, who co-founded Pollster.com, is also highly regarded nationally, and has a deal to do polls through the entire 2012 year.
And that drives the concerns of Ross and One Wisconsin Now


And unlike UW-Madison, Marquette doesn’t have to release emails which may show similar “behind-the-scenes” discussions on how to report the findings of Charles Franklin's polls (or if they would even be reported at all).

I sure would have liked to see if there was something going on in 2014, when Franklin’s last MU Law poll showed a “surge” for Scott Walker, saying that Scotty had opened up a 7-point lead on Mary Burke among likely voters after polling in the race had shown a toss-up for several months. Even sketchier was that among registered voters, the margin was only 1 point.

I hypothesized at the time that this gave Franklin cover in case Burke won, since that would be within the registered voter poll’s margin of error. In the end, Walker won by a little over 5 points, and I have a hard time not thinking that some people were influenced by the poll’s meme that “Walker’s going to win” and voted for Scotty so they could be on the winning side (or they didn’t vote at all).

Then look at 2016, and the MU Law Poll had Hillary Clinton leading in all 7 polls done in the final 5 months of the campaign, with the final poll 1 week before the election giving a 6-point Clinton lead. Likewise, the MU Law Poll had Russ Feingold leading Ron Johnson in every poll it made of the Senate race, albeit with the last poll having the two candidates within 1 point.

The fact that MU missed in 2016 isn’t a crime, and in fact, the figures showed that there were enough undecideds at the time of the final poll to plausibly allow the GOP candidates (with a nice boost from Russian targeting on social media) to turn the tide and win those elections. But it should mean that Charles Franklin’s polls aren’t be the only item to rely on when it comes to figuring out which Dem candidates for Governor are viable.

On a related note, many news media reports have reported Walker as “having a 47-47 approval rate” based on one Marquette Law Poll that ignored its own finding of a pro-Dem enthusiasm gap and counted on a 2014-type electorate. Maybe media should note that several other polls that have been released this year has Walker between 5 and 10 points underwater. You can bet the analysis of Walker’s frequent tweets would be quite different if media members thought he was losing and desperate (HINT- he probably is).

In addition to the WBA’s flawed criteria on choosing the candidates to interview for governor, we also have a real problem in that there is a vacuum of polling and information on where Wisconsinites stand on the issues and the November elections, at least when it comes to mainstream organizations releasing information.

In that vacuum, one big voice like the MU Law Poll takes up a disproportionate amount of attention from state media, because media can’t help but report poll numbers and similar horse-race stuff (hey, it beats going into issues!). This vacuum is especially apparent in this election cycle, as Charles Franklin and company have become noticeably quiet for 2018.


Because there is so little information out there, if some savvy Dem campaigns had information which showed them ahead of Scott Walker and/or outperforming expectations in the Democratic primary, they would be wise to release it in the near future. Especially now that the WBA is trying to narrow the field with their very narrow, poll-and-money based criteria.

See, what Republicans (and their Bradley Foundation allies) understand is that polls can be used as weapons to drive media coverage of issues and elections. It infuriates me that Dems and Dem-leaning groups don’t do the same (Tony Evers is a notable exception - he touted his internal poll showing him leading Walker 49-45 during his speech at the Dem convention). A favorable poll for Dems would be easy “earned media”, and slant coverage toward a trend of “Walker in trouble/losing.”

This is especially true since a lot of Dem primary voters are waiting to see who is ahead and who is flailing in order to strategize their voting and donations. And if the Dems don’t produce these numbers, Bradley and Koch stink tanks and corporate media will give the “information” for them. And you can bet those right-wing groups will use their influence to put out results that try to discourage Dem voters from getting out and change things in 2018.

So maybe the WBA should get out of the way, let all Dems who want to be in their debate show up and speak, and let the voters decide who is a worthy candidate. Or they could use their money to put on their own legitimate polls instead of waiting for the not-quite gold standard numbers from a Marquette Law School, and make some decisions from there. Either option would be better than the idiotic idea that the WBA floated today to shrink the Dems’ race for govrnor to 4 candidates.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

Americans still spending more despite mediocre pay raises. What trend breaks first?

Late last week, the US's personal income and spending report came out for April. This is a report I've been keeping my eye on not only because I wanted to see if spending was picking up after the GOP's tax cuts took effect at the start of this year, but also because I've noticed a troubling return to the spendy ways of the mid-2000s for American consumers, and we all should remember how that crashed down by 2007-08.

This month's report had a couple of interesting indications on those fronts. The first is that for the first time since those tax cuts came into effect, we saw a bit of a jump in spending to go along with decent increases in income.
Personal income increased $49.5 billion (0.3 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $60.9 billion (0.4 percent)and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $79.8 billion (0.6 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in April and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
Granted, some of that spending increase had to do with rising gas prices and consumption. But it's a noted increase from the flatline we saw in consumption in the first couple of months of 2018, and March's increase was also revised up by $12.8 million. So let's see if the tax cuts are finally encouraging people to spend a bit more, because there was little evidence of it until recently.

But on the flip side, incomes continue to rise by less than consumer spending goes up, with the lag being more than $30 million in April (and nearly $38 million if you count interest payments and Social Security taxes). And wages and salaries still haven't seen any notable increase from what we were seeing this time last year, even with lower unemployment and tax cuts.



Which means that the US's savings rate is falling again, back below 3%, like we saw at the end of 2017, before the tax cuts gave a short-time boost due to higher disposable incomes.



Much like how the low unemployment rate and low wage growth isn't a trend that is likely to hold up for much longer, I think that this "low-savings, mediocre income growth, rising housing and gas prices" trend can't continue either.

The three ways this situation will seem to turn out are as follows - 1. Incomes grow and catch up to spending, meaning a 1990s-style economic boom 2. People stop spending so much and start saving more, leading to recession and a bursting of the housing bubble many places are in. 3.Wages pick up but spending does not, meaning inflation first, and then higher interest rates and 1970s-style stagflation after that. And I think we may know which answer is coming by the November elections.

Saturday, June 2, 2018

May jobs up, unemployment down. But wages still won't budge


Yesterday featured the release of the May US jobs report. And it was a very good one.
U.S. employers extended a streak of solid hiring in May, adding 223,000 jobs and helping lower the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8%....

...the report shows that the nearly 9-year-old economic expansion — the second-longest on record — remains on track. Employers appear to be shrugging off recent concerns about global trade disputes.

The job market is also benefiting a wider range of Americans: The unemployment rate for high school graduates reached 3.9%, a 17-year low. For black Americans, it hit a record low of 5.9%.
And unlike recent months, the drop in the unemployment rate was due to people finding work instead of people dropping out of the work force.

Household survey, May 2018
Labor force +12,000
"Employed" +293,000
"Unemployed" -281,000

The 223,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was also a bump up from the last two months of 155,000 and 159,000, which brought the 3-month average back toward the general trend of 180,000 jobs a month that we had for 2017. And when you dig inside the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, it shows a couple of blue collar industries were especially strong.
Employment in construction continued on an upward trend in May (+25,000) and has risen by 286,000 over the past 12 months. Within the industry, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 15,000 jobs over the month....

Manufacturing employment continued to expand over the month (+18,000). Durable goods accounted for most of the change, including an increase of 6,000 jobs in machinery. Manufacturing employment has risen by 259,000 over the year, with about three-fourths of the growth in durable goods industries.
That's certainly good to hear, and a nice turnaround from the losses we saw in manufacturing in much of 2016. But the flip side is that wages in manufacturing aren't going up much at all. These figures are before accounting for inflation, by the way.

12 month change in wages, manufacturing May 2017-May 2018
All Manufacturing
Average Hourly Wages +1.5%
Average Weekly Wages +1.7%

Durable Goods Manufacturing
Average Hourly Wages +1.7%
Average Weekly Wages +1.5%

Overall wages in the US also continue to stagnate, even with the low unemployment rate.
In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $26.92. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or 2.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $22.59 in May.
That 2.7% nominal increase in wages over the last 12 months is no different than what we've seen since the start of 2016.



Let's also note that inflation has gone up over those two years, and with gas spiking in May, it is very possible that real wages will have declined over the last 12 months (we will find out for sure when the CPI report comes out in a couple of weeks).

One last item that grabbed my attention from the jobs report was a relatively obscure table that is the only place where jobs in agriculture, hunting, fishing and forestry come in. It's in the household survey, and it shows that the number of people who say they are working in these jobs has declined noticeably over the last 2 years. Almost all of this decline has come among people who describe themselves as "self-employed" in their ag-related field, which indicates many people are either going under and/or being bought out.



The unemployment rate in "Agriculture and related private wage and salary workers" is currently at 5.8%, the highest of any sector in the economy. Could be worth checking on to see if the jobs in those industries keep declining, especially as we continue to hear stories about farm bankruptcies piling up in Wisconsin. But that's about the only sector that's seeing difficulty when it comes to people finding work in our current economy.

So the job market remains in good shape, with jobs growth continuing near (OK, slightly below) the levels we have seen for much of the last 5 years, and the unemployment rate continuing to fall. But wage growth keeps lagging and one of those trends is going to have to break - meaning we are heading toward a bubbly and inflationary boom, or a stalling in the economy that stops the consistent 8-year decline that we have seen in the unemployment rate.

Friday, June 1, 2018

Live from Oshkosh

Just pulled into town, getting ready to run the gauntlet of campaign hacks. They tell me I'm big in this town (inside joke, I'm just a lug with a rapid typing finger).

Wish me luck in keeping my sanity around these folks.

At least the view is nice for the "warm-up."

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Milwaukee and rural Wisconsin keeps losing people while Madison keeps gaining

Though the hassles and other activities around Memorial Day weekend and a personally busy week, this recent story slipped my reaction.
The city of Milwaukee lost residents for the third straight year and has now added just 518 residents since the last census in 2010, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The data, which estimate a city’s population as of July 1 in a given year, show Milwaukee’s population decreased by 2,157 from 2016 to 2017, a 0.4 percent decrease.

The drop marks the third straight year Milwaukee has seen population declines after drops of 3,504 in 2016 and 190 in 2015. Those declines have nearly wiped out all of the city’s population gains in the first half of the decade.

DeForest was the fastest growing of the 100 largest incorporated areas in the state during the year, adding 687 residents, a 7.1 percent increase. Other fast growing municipalities included Harrison, up 4.2 percent, and Middleton, up 3.3 percent....

Eleven area municipalities had percentage decreases greater than Milwaukee, led by Shorewood and West Allis, both down 0.8 percent. The other communities with percentage losses greater than Milwaukee included Whitefish Bay, Glendale, Greendale, South Milwaukee, Brown Deer, St. Francis, Greenfield, Sheboygan and Franklin.
Note that outside of Sheboygan, those other 10 municipalities listed with notable declines are all in MIlwaukee County. This goes along with the Census Bureau's earlier reports that showed Milwaukee County lost nearly 3,300 people in 2017.


Fewer people are living in this town in recent years.

And it's not like the rest of the Milwaukee metro area was booming to make up the difference from the people leaving Milwaukee County.

Milwaukee metro counties population 2017 vs 2016
Waukesha Co. +2,396
Washington Co. +729
Ozaukee Co. +252
Racine Co. +1,061

That means the 5-county Miller Park area barely grew more than 1,000 people in all last year. Not generally a good sign for a state's economy when the largest metro area has stagnant population growth.

It's a marked contrast from what we've seen in the second-largest metro area in the state in Madison. The Capitol City had by far the largest increase in population of any Wisconsin city in 2017, with more than 3,100 more people calling Madison home, and Dane County accounted for 4 of the 6 communities with the largest increases in population growth in Wisconsin in 2017.



Likewise, Madison and Dane County have added the most people in Wisconsin for the entire 2010s. Madison had 22,005 more people in 2017 than it had at the start of the decade, which is more than 20% of the state's entire gain in population. 4 of Madison's suburbs have also had notable growth in the 2010s, as have two suburbs of Green Bay, and Appleton have also done well. The only Milwaukee-area community that has solid growth is Oak Creek, with an increase of a little over 1,900 people.



On the negative side, the largest population losses in the 2010s have been in mid-size cities, headed by Racine, and including 2 cities each in Manitowoc and Wood Counties.



Interestingly, Racine actually added people for the first time in the 2010s last year - it was only 63 people, but that beats all the consecutive years of losses. That's the opposite trend of Milwaukee, who the Census Bureau says peaked at more than 601,000 people in 2014, and has lost people in each of the 3 years since, including a significant loss last year.



One last item I want to bring up with these figures is that some Wisconsin communities have lost a much larger portion of their population than Milwaukee or Racine have in the 2010s. On a percentage basis, many small Wisconsin communities have become quite a bit smaller in this decade, especially in the northern and central parts of the state.



In fact, Census Bureau statistics say taht more incorporated Wisconsin communities have lost people than gained them in this decade.

2017 vs 2010, Wis cities and villages. (601 total)
Total population gainers 232
Total population losers 357
Same 12

And losing population is a real problem for communities. Not only does it indicate a lack of economic growth, but it also means that there is likely fewer taxpayers to support the services that are still required in those communities. This will raise the tax burden on all who remain, and that's especially a problem because the state has refused to raise shared revenues and allow communities much of a chance to raise their own revenues to make up for it. So you can see where these communities are in serious danger of a spiraling decline that won't be fixed unless there is some kind of major economic change, or a notable increase in state funding to help them get by.

This kind of uneven population and economic growth is something that has afflicted many parts of rural America along with Wisconsin, but where Wisconsin stands out (in a bad way) is that its largest city and metro area has also flatlined in the 2010s. And no Scotty, blowing the state budget on Foxconn will not solve these population issues (and may make them worse as the rest of the state is disinvested).

Maybe we should follow the Madison model and try to be more like those crazy hippies, because a lot of people seem to want to be part of what's going on in the Mad City. But given that the Wisconsin GOP seems determined to knock down Milwaukee in a cheap attempt to play "divide and conquer" to try to make the mediocrity that exists in the non-Madison parts of the state seem better, it seems like the 414 and the 262 will fail to keep up with the 608 until there's a change from the WisGOPs that have been in charge in Wisconsin for the 2010s.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Sorry Ron Johnson, but Wisconsin's worker shortage is largely due to your own WisGOPs

I noticed this statement from one of our US Senators that popped up in a Wisconsin State Journal editorial from today titled "Ron Johnson send strong message to Trump: Wisconsin needs more workers."
Johnson, R-Oshkosh, is chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which recently held a hearing to discuss bipartisan calls for more visas for temporary foreign workers.

“There’s not one manufacturing plant in Wisconsin, not one dairy farm, not one resort that can hire enough people,” Johnson told Kirstjen Nielsen, President Trump’s Homeland Security secretary, who testified before Johnson’s committee in Washington. “So that really is a pressing need.”

U.S. Sen. Tom Carper, D-Delaware, another committee member, agreed the labor shortage was dire. Tens of thousands of more visas are needed to help fill a glut of summer positions, he told Kirstjen.

“They need the folks now. They needed them a month ago,” Carper said.

“We heard literally this week from companies that they’re afraid they’re going to lose their business, because they don’t have people to come to work and do the jobs — their seasonal jobs.”
Certainly this is going to be a problem in a time of full employment in America. And one of the ways to solve that shortage and keep the economy growing is to encourage more immigration to fill positions, both in low-skilled and high-skilled areas. This concept of "growing population and growth through immigration" seems to elude President "Build the Wall", mostly due to racism, but also because he seems to have a mentality that the economy is a limited, zero-sum game where there is only so much to go around (strangely, Trump and much of today's GOP do not feel the same way about government spending and deficits).

But Ron Johnson is looking at the wrong place when he mentions the issues behind the fact that "not one manufaturing plant in Wisconsin, not one dairy farm, [adn] not one resort that can hire enough people." He shouldn't be looking at President Trump and immigration, but instead he should turn his gaze to Governor Scott Walker and his fellow Wisconsin Republicans for why they can't find enough people to work here.

A typical labor shortage happens for two reasons 1. A lack of population growth (or worse, decline), and 2. A lack of sufficient wages and supports to encourage more people to choose to work in a certain area. And these are items that Wisconsin has come up short in big-time since the Age of Fitzwalkerstan came in along with Senator Johnson with the November 2010 elections.

The recently=released Census population figures and "gold standard" Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the end of 2017 are illuminating for these figures. Let's start with population, where 3 states had populations between 5.0 and 5.7 million people in the 2010 Census - Colorado, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of these states have had solid population growth since 2010 except for one - Wisconsin.

Population growth, 2010-2017
Colorado +577,958 (+11.5%)
Minnesota +272,679 (+5.1%)
Wisconsin +105,487 (+1.9%)

Guess which one of these states has had Republicans in control of their state since 2010? Yup. Think the legislatures in Denver and St. Paul and handcuffing and tearing down their largest cities the way that WisGOP tears down Madison and Milwaukee? No, not at all, and they're emphasizing quality of life and natural beauty that attracts people to locate in those communities.

Not surprisingly, Wisconsin has also badly trailed these other 2 states in job growth over those 7 years.

Job growth, QCEW Dec 2010 - Dec 2017
Colorado +449,598 (+20.4%)
Minnesota +292,976 (+11.3$)
Wisconsin +202,554 (+7.6%)

And guess what else Wisconsin lags these states in? Paying adequate wages in its largest cities to attract workers.

Average weekly wages QCEW Dec 2010 - Dec 2017
Denver area
Denver Co, CO $1,334 (+3.7% vs Dec 2016)
Arapahoe Co, CO $1,268 (+3.4%)
Jefferson Co, CO $1,112 (+2.4%)
Adams Co., CO $ 1,075 (+5.4%)

Twin Cities
Hennepin Co., MN $1,335 (+3.0%)
Ramsey Co., MN $1,202 (+3.8%)

Waukesha Co. $1,082 (+0.8%)
Dane County, Wis $1,070 (+3.5%)
Milwaukee Co. $1,056 (+1.5%)

So yes, perhaps encouraging more visas and immigration in general can help to solve the problems of Wisconsin employers in finding enough workers to fill their positions. But what Ron Johnson and other WisGOPs won't admit is that they are also to blame, for the regressive "divide and conquer" mentality and wage-suppressing economic policies that drive talent away from Wisconsin. Instead, they choose other mid-size (blue) states like Minnesota and Colorado where they can enjoy life and get paid well.

This trend of stagnant population and wages won't change in Wisconsin until there is a change of leadership in the Capitol. That's just a fact.