Thursday, December 31, 2020

In DC, $2,000 is too much for most Americans. But there's never enough for the rich ones

As Congress debates whether or not to give 90%+ of Americans $2,000 instead of $600 in a time of high unemployment and a record level of death keeping people from wanting to spend, let me remind you that a certain subset of Americans got their bailout from DC 3 years ago. Yeah, how dare we encourage consumers to spend money in an economy that has 2/3 of its activity based on consumer spending! Encouraging rich people to hoard cash and inflate stock market and real estate Bubbles is a MUCH better strategy. (Slams head on desk)

The lack of self-awareness is vomit-inducing. And yet idiots like this guy keep get re-elected (or at least the numbers say so). As a new batch of Americans becomes unemployed after the Holiday season, adding to the 20 million+ that are already receiving benefits, we have a new set of unemployment rules being passed down to states to figure out. And there is little to no guidance (or much money) from DC to help them get this figured out, and to get the extra funds out to those out of work. And watch as Wisconsin Republicans complain about the time it takes to get the new benefits out (no matter how quick it is), while not doing a thing to invest in technology or staff in the upcoming state budget to take care of such problems. Or in removing the red tape WisGOPs put in place to make it tougher for Wisconsinites to get those benefits.

It's also funny how we don't hear a WORD in the national debate over stimulus and the national debt about the easiest way to reduce the deficfit. Reverse the tax cuts for the rich and corporate that went through in 2017. And why haven't the Dems in charge of the House constantly held votes to overturn those giveaways, and why didn't they and Biden openly and forcefully run on that during the election?

It feels like this is coming to a head in 2021, especially as I believe the economy will continue to drag as COVID Winter drags on. And it is well past time to stop pussyfooting around the crippling inequalities that are obvious to anyone who cares to look.

One group of Americans has been able to buy their way out of pain and inconvenience in 2020. And we need to make them start chipping in and being as accountable as the rest of us.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020

As CARES money goes away, how will Wisconsin handle the costs of the COVID World?

As 2020 finally draws to a close, it also means that states like Wisconsin have to set aside all of the money it received under the CARES Act this Spring. Wisconsin got nearly $2 billion in aid, which went through Tony Evers' Department of Administration, but it has to be "expended or obligated" by tomorrow.

With that in mind, the Legislative Fiscal Bureau recently gave an update on where Wisconsin stands on these CARES funds, and told legislators what had been added or modified since October.
In a release dated December 15, 2020, the Administration reported that it expects to have expended or obligated nearly the full amount of the state's CRF allocation by December 30, 2020. Approximately $900,000 remains unallocated at this time. The table below summarizes the planned uses of the CRF allocation, as well as the reallocations from previously-reported initiatives.
You can see that the Evers Administration used $242 million of those funds for grants to businesses, including finds earmarked for restaurants, lodging establishments, live music and arts venues, and movie theatres. Which is a good thing, because while the new stimulus package from DC gave $15 billion to music venues, cinemas and museum, there was only a reduced amount of PPP assistance made available for other types of businesses.

As for other aids, states did get some help for COVID testing and treatment, and additional funds for education, roads, transit and child care. But it didn't have CARES-like direct asssistance to states that allowed for state-generated programs like Evers' funds to small businesses or added payments to hospitals and long-term care facilities. But those extra costs and needs won't go away with the start of the year, which means that there will be a question as to how that level of services is going to continue.

At the same time that some Federal help is being reduced, there is a continued decline in Wisconsin's state income taxes, as shown by figures released by the Wisconsin Department of Revenue earlier this month. However, a continued rise in the collection of corporate taxes (partly due to increased audits of businesses by the DOR) continues to make up for it.

Change in Wisconsin revenues, Nov 2020 vs Nov 2019
Individual Income Taxes (adj) -6.0%
Sales Taxes +0.2%
Corporate Taxes +324.4% ($157 mil vs $37 mil)
Excise Taxes -4.2%
Other -4.8%
TOTAL CHANGE +4.3%

Wisconsin reflects the national trend, as federal income taxes also were lower in November 2020 vs November 2019, according to the most recent Treasury Statement. They were down 11.3% for November and 12.8% between October and November combined, which shows what a jobs and wages hole we are still in.

Given the rise in unemployment claims since the time of the November survey, I don’t see this revenue picture getting much better, although the temporary restoration of higher unemployment benefits (which get taxed) might at least keep the decline from getting larger during our COVID Winter.

So while the Federal help in 2020 has given the State of Wisconsin a lot of stability and fiscal cushion at this point, the loss of those items in 2021 means that the state's fiscal and economic situations can become more perilous. Then forecast ahead to job and fiscal deficits that may well exist for the next 2-year budget cycle, and a crunch could come quite quickly.
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Monday, December 28, 2020

Trump signs! But the stupid delay will cause more economic damage in 2021

You may have heard that President Trump decided to sign the stimulus and funding bills after all, following one week of big talk and complaints. So hurray, millions of Americans won't be cut off of unemployment benefits and/or face eviction as 2020 ends.

But Trump's dithering and posing will still lead to issues for many people, even if they aren't going to be cut off of unemployment. Channel 27 in Madison had a story talking about the added difficulties some Wisconsinites may be going through this week.
Jennifer Gorman's Sunday routine since May has included filing a weekly claim for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), a federal relief program for people unable to get traditional unemployment insurance through their state.

But on this Sunday, Gorman was unable to submit her claim. PUA benefits expired on Saturday, December 26, along with Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, a 13-week extension of federal benefits for people whose state unemployment benefits had run out.

While President Trump signed the relief packages approved by Congress, he waited nearly one week to do so. Over the course of those six days, PUA and PEUC expired. Gorman said when she want to apply for what she thought would be the last week of benefits, she instead got caught in a cycle on the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development's website.

"It says you need to file an initial claim or re-open your claim. Once you click on that button to file an initial claim, it'll bring you to another page that says reopen your claim," Gorman said. "When you click on that button to reopen your claim, it brings you back to the other page that says you need to file an initial claim so it's just a back-and-forth, back-and-forth."…

It was unclear Sunday whether Gorman and others would get backpay for the past week and, if so, whether they would need to re-apply for the federal assistance programs.
In addition, if individuals have to start over in filing PUA (like if they had gig work during the Holidays and then lost it afterwards). And according to another provision of the stimulus package, if they end up filing in Feburary or March, they may need to supply additional documentation, which can cause even more delays.

•Effective January 31, 2021, requires new applicants for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) to submit documentation to substantiate employment or self-employment within 21 days and provides for such deadline to be extended when an individual has shown good cause.
•Requires individuals receiving PUA as of January 31, 2021 to submit documentation to substantiate employment or self-employment within 90 days.
I assume the intent is to reduce the possibility of fraud, but this will likely trip up many applicants who will assume they can file claims the same way they used to. Then, when the Wisconsin DWD (or the equivalent in other states) asks for more information, they won’t have it readily available. And it'll take longer for them to receive their PUA benefits.

Another possible hangup in the new stimulus bill relates to the one-week waiting period for benefits. Wisconsin had this provision before the COVID World began, but got rid of it after the CARES Act had the Feds pay all of the cost of that first week. You may remember this coming up when the WisGOP Legislature took 3 weeks to pass the bill that adopted this CARES provision, which cost the state $25 million in federal funding.

Well, the new bill still gives an incentive to not have the waiting week, but it's only 50% of the cost, not 100%. In addition, if there is not another law passed by the WisGOP Legislature, the waiting week comes back after February 6. You can bet that one-week waiting period to get money would come as quite a surprise to people laid off after then.

And watch for WisGOP legislators to use these delays and confusing changes in laws as an excuse to blame the Evers Administration. Despite the reality that some of these items didn't become law until Trump got off the golf course on Sunday, and others will likely be due to WisGOP inaction/sabotage. Just another parting gift from the lowlifes, you know.
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Sunday, December 27, 2020

While Trump dithers on the golf course, a lot of Americans are staring into an abyss

Yesterday was a big deadline for getting a number of CARES-related provisions at extended, which would give needed security for a lot of Americans. I'm sure this greatly concerned our President, and made him burn the midnight oil to make sure his constituents were not left in the lurch. The relief payments that Americans are missing out only a small portion of the damage that is happening while Trump refuses to act. Remember that there are millions of Americans out of work that are not getting an additional $300-per-week through mid-March, which is a loss that could reach $3,300 for tens of millions of people that are likely to need support during a COVID winter.
And see those 14.8 million people in orange and green? Almost all of those people are cut off of unemployment benefits today due to Trump's inaction. That only covers the figures through December 5 (the last week we have for all forms of this data) - it is likely that the numbers are even higher today.

Another key area of assistance that won't happen if Trump doesn't act is a 15% increase in SNAP benefits, which is badly needed as 2020 ends. Trumpian inaction also means that there will not be another round of aid to agribusinesses, including specific help for dairy farmers that was included in the stimulus bill. Worse, the government will shut down if no agreement to fund operations is signed by the end of tomorrow, so no current agriculture assistance either.

If nothing is signed, there are potentially millions of Americans that are in danger of losing their housing by the end of the week, and Wisconsin is not immune to that danger as layoffs accelerate in our part of the country. Another cliff that looms is the ending of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentages (FMAP), which has allowed the Feds to cover an additional 6.2% of Medicaid costs since March. US HHS Secretary Alex Azar has extended the COVID emergency to January 21, which means the higher FMAP coverage goes until March 31.But if nothing is signed by Trump, it also means there is no extension coming past that date.

With unemployment already high and likely going up in the coming months, it seems likely that Medicaid rolls will remain high by the end of March, which means state governments are going to have to take on more of that burden just as they begin their 2021-23 budget work. Worse, one of the few areas where state and local governments were getting assistance in the stimulus bill was in funding for administering COVID vaccinations and treatment. So are they going to have to take on those costs in the coming weeks?

And perhaps even worse, Americans that are on Medicaid might not have their COVID vaccinations covered, according to the Feds.
...States must cover, under the state plan (or waiver), testing services and treatments for COVID–19, including vaccines, specialized equipment, and therapies, for any quarter in which the temporary increased FMAP is claimed.
So if there is no increased FMAP on March 31, there is no requirement to cover COVID-19 testing, treatments and vaccinations. Governor Evers has asked for the Department of Health Services to cover this, as part of his latest COVID coverage bill, but current Wisconsin law (as laid out in the bill passed in April), only allows free testing through March 13, 2021.

That's a problem, given that a lot of Wisconsinites are not likely to be vaccinated by March 13. Which means that paying for COVID vaccinations, the costs of testing and the costs of distribution (and deciding who pays them) is something that will have to be hammered out at the start of the Biden Presidency.

But the current president has other priorities, and methods of "law-making". As I said last week, maybe we should stop electing politicians who care more about making noises in the media and in making every action based on their personal fee-fees over in making things better for their constituents. Just a thought.
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Saturday, December 26, 2020

Population growth grinds to a halt in 2020. Especially in the Midwest

Between the Holidays, the stimulus and the potential shutdown that's coming, you might have missed a remarkable release of data showing another reason 2020 is an extraordinary year in America.
The U.S. population grew by the smallest rate in at least 120 years from 2019 to 2020, according to figures released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau — a trend that demographers say provides a glimpse of the coronavirus pandemic’s toll. Population growth in the U.S. already was stagnant over the past several years due to immigration restrictions and a dip in fertility, but coronavirus-related deaths exacerbated that lethargic-growth trend, said William Frey, a senior fellow at The Brooking Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program.... The U.S. population grew by 0.35% from July 2019 to July 2020, an increase of 1.1 million people in a nation whose estimated population in July was more than 329 million residents, according to Census Bureau estimates. An analysis by Frey shows that it's the smallest increase this century and smaller than any in the last century as well. At the height of the Spanish flu, the growth rate from 1918 to 1919 was 0.49% — even with U.S. troops abroad during World War I. The Northeast and Midwest regions of the U.S. had tiny population declines from 2019 to 2020, while the South and West regions had slight increases.
Now this estimate isn't going to be a neat 1-for-1 match to the US Census figures that are due to be released in the next week, but it gives you a prety good idea, and Election Data Services used these new figures, and also projecte back to the April 1 numbers that the Census is based on, to see which states might gain or lose seats in the House of Representatives as maps get redrawn ahead of the 2022 midterms.
You'll notice that Wisconsin is one of the few states in the Midwest not projected to lose a seat in Congress after this year. If you go into the state-by-state estimates, it shows that we were not growing by great numbers ourselves, as we were not immune from the slowdown in population growth that happened last year or the last 10 years.
Wisconsin had enough cushion going into the 2010s to not be in danger of losing a seat, which helps explain why they are able to keep 8 seats in the House for the next decade, while Minnesota will lose one. This is despite the fact that Minnesota gained many more people in the last decade than we did, as they cut the gap in residents between the two states by 236,000 over the last 10 years.
But while we were significantly outpaced by Minnesota, Wisconsin outgained the other states it borders over those 10 years. Illinois in particular lost a lot of people over the last 7 years, and Michigan is also estimated that have lost people in 2019 and 2020.
The stagnant (and in some places) declining population of Wisconsin and the rest of the Midwest is going to put a significant lid on the level of growth that can happen as the 2020s proceed. And with COVID deaths increasing since the July 1 date of these estimates, it is not inconceivable that we see even more places drop in population for next year, increasing disparities that caused the US economic recovery to be quite uneven in the latter half of the 2010s.

And if we don't reverse the record level of US deaths for 2020, increase birth rates (good luck on people in their 20s and 30s wanting to bring more kids into THIS world) or make America more attractive for immigrants than it was in the Trump era, then this country will also have limited growth. And that's not even accounting for who will (or won't) get those gains.

Let's see if the full Census figures get releaed next week, and if they match up with the estimates that we saw come out this week. Then watch the appeals, complaints and gerrymandering attempts follow!
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Thursday, December 24, 2020

While COVID cases decline throughout Wisconsin, deaths stay up and testing stays down

While the rest of the country continues to set notorious records for new COVID cases, Wisconsin has seen its level of new positive tests go down in December. While we are still at levels that weren't reached until October, the number of new cases reported has gone down for each of the last 4 weeks.
And the trend of fewer cases seems to be showing up throughout the state. The 3 largest counties are still at elevated levels, but are definitely going down.
Northeastern Wisconsin and the I-41 corridor had some of the worst COVID outbreaks in the country last month, but the numbers are finally seeming to subside.
And counties with large UW on-campus populations are also seeing the numbers go down as the semester winds down.
BUT, there's a big caveat in all of these numbers, which is that testing totals have gone down. Maybe that reflects people not showing symptoms and not feeling they need to take a test, but the number of people being tested has also plummeted in the last month. This means that the rate of tests turning up positive aren't much lower at all.
And the major spike in cases for November continues to be reflected in a higher number of deaths, which are still happening at a rate of 60-70 a day in Wisconsin, with a record of 120 reported on Tuesday (which is the after the time period of this chart).
You put this together, and it tells me that by mid-January, we'll get a better idea if the COVID situation actually is improving in Wisconsin. If people are smart over the Holiday season, and cases keep falling, then we might be coming out the other side in a good way. But if deaths don't fall like the new cases numbers have in the last month, then it seems more likely that the decline in cases reflects a lack of testing more than a lack of infections, and an already-dreary COVID Winter will become even darker.
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Can we get leaders that actually care about details and lawmaking?

Here's something you should remember when you hear Trump/GOP start crying about the level of foreign aid that's in the budget/stimulus bill. This is why it's a bad idea to have a President who's never held a "job" that went beyond giving orders and doing PR stunts. And by the way, there might be no real policy reason Trump is throwing a monkey-wrench into the budget/stimulus bill. Like most things, it may be simple spite. And as Trump hides in his bunker and then runs off to Florida vs doing the actual work of legislatin', millions of Americans are seeing their unemployment benefits expire on Saturday. Happy Holidays, all!

Knowing policy might not get you much air time on AM radio or cable news, but it's kind of important if you're in the lawmaking business. Maybe we should care about that when we consider our votes. Just a thought.
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