Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Barrett trailing? Ehhh, not so fast my friend!

And PPP has followed up the Senate poll I quoted yesterday with their governor poll that was taken from the same callers. And gee, what a surprise, it favors the Republicans .

The telling numbers here (in addition to the ridiculous age 30-45 crosstab), are the stats when broken down by ideology. Barrett leads Walker by 17 (!) points among moderates and 18 against Neumann. The only thing giving the GOP the alleged lead is the big number of conservatives vs. liberals (40 vs. 19). Now do you think a state that went 56-43 for Obama has conservatives make up 40% of the population and outnnumber liberals 2 to 1? COME ON.

Let's adjust that poll to a more realistic Wisconsin ideology figure of 25% liberal, 40% moderate, and 35% conservative (I'm being generous to the Sykes party, cause I'm a nice guy). Run those same voter-preference-by-ideology percentages again, and here's what you get.

Barrett 40.3%
Neumann 38.0%
Undecided 21.70%

Walker 41.70%
Barrett 41.65%
Undecided 16.65%

Little different story, now isn't it? It really is a statistical dead heat, which means Barrett has to win by grabbing about half of the remaining undecideds, especially the moderate undecideds, and having liberals turn out (he leads by 65% over both challengers there).

But you can bet that won't be mentioned in the JS or the other lazy mainstream publications. But since we know how to crunch numbers and know real Wisconsinites (which ain't people with landlines lounging at home on a beautiful Summer weekend), we know better.

And with that last sentence in mind, to the Terrace I go! And to Summerfest for the Hold Steady tomorrow. Good time to be a Cheesehead.

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