If you look at those crosstabs, you see Charles Franklin’s electorate is significantly older than what exit polls indicated was the turnout in the 2014 and the 2016 November elections in Wisconsin.
Turnout by age, Wisconsin
2014 exit poll
18-44 40%
45+ 60%
2016 exit poll
18-44 39%
60+ 61%
MU Law Poll late Oct. 2018
18-44 29.4%
45+ 68.4%
And that older electorate changes the results by quite a bit, because Evers dominates among younger voters.
18-44 Evers 54.2–28.1
45+ Walker 50.3-45.1
If you turn the age breakdown into the pro-Trump 2016 electorate, the race becomes Evers 49.2-43.1. And it likely becomes more pronounced if young people recognize the state and country's desperate situation, and understand their voice can decide who wins.
I also noticed that Walker continues to do horribly with self-described moderates, much as he has in the last 2 Marquette Polls.
Moderates, Marquette Law Poll
September 2018
Evers 53-32
Early October
Evers 56-30
Late Oct. 2018
Evers 57-32
A consistent lead of 20-25 points for Evers with that group. But again, Chucky F’s
Turnout by age, Wisconsin
2014 exit poll
Conservative 35%
Moderate 41%
Liberal 23%
2016 exit poll
Conservative 34%
Moderate 40%
Liberal 25%
MU Law Poll late Oct. 2018
Conservative 42.8%
Moderate 27.3%
Liberal 26.3%
It seems logical that liberal turnout would be a bit higher in 2018 due to higher Dem enthusiasm and better Dem performance in every other election in Wisconsin so far this year. So we’ll keep that part but the huge spike in conservatives doesn’t ring true. So move that mix of ideology to a more typical 38% conservative, 28% moderate and 26% liberal, and the result is….50-46 Evers.
Bottom line - if young people, moderates, and pretty much anyone with an ounce of decency and knowledge shows up at the polls, Tony Evers is likely to become the Governor of Wisconsin with the new year. But if not, then WisGOP and Walker can steal it.
So let's overwhelm the bad guys in 6 days (if you haven't already voted), and get a Governor and a government that actually cares about the Wisconsin they leave behind.
I will add this one note. Before the Marquette Poll, Nate Silver had projected Evers winning by 1.6%.
ReplyDeleteIn Silver's Guv race forecast tonight, after the MU Poll? Eves +1.5. Didnt change things because Silver assumes MU is off 2-3 points for the GOP.
I honestly think Hillary Clinton drove Democrat, Democrat leaning and moderate turnout down dramatically in 2016, so I'm cautiously optimistic - posting election information on my wall and talking about it in a non-partisan way. Even in our offices, we can still encourage people to vote as long as we don't get all red and blue about it.
ReplyDeleteOffering to help anybody who needs to get to the polls, hasn't registered, just needs somebody to go with, is wondering about early voting and registration, etc.
I'd really like to see much more GOTV activity from Democrats - when the numbers are up, we win, and too many people are still in the dark about the voting process.
For instance, did you know Madison Public Libraries are early voting and registration stations? I've found most people don't know that. They're open until 8:30 weekdays. After Friday you'll have to already be registered, but that's still a lot of time to get to a branch.
http://www.cityofmadison.com/clerk/elections-voting/voting/vote-absentee/in-person-absentee-voting-hours-and-locations