People still shopping and spending as of now. Will they in 2019?

The stock market may be tanking, but that hasn't stopped Americans from spending. This was shown again late last week, as reports came in showing that this has been a big-time Holiday Shopping season for online retailers.

A new report from Adobe Analytics finds this year’s holiday spending has jumped nearly 18% from a year ago, with a record $110.6 billion spent on online shopping since November 1, CNBC reported.

Holiday sales so far have made the 2018 holiday season the biggest online shopping period in U.S. history, according to Chain Store Age. The states with the most items in their online shopping carts were Wyoming, Alaska, California, Montana, and Washington, with mobile transactions accounting for $33.3 billion worth of the total sales. Mobile transactions have jumped by 57% since last year, as foot traffic at retail stores slow.

Last year at this time, there were $93.9 in online sales, for the period starting November 1.

Adobe predicts that online holiday sales will only continue to grow in the week leading up to December 31, and will reach at least $126 billion.

That's well beyond the already-strong 10-11% annual increases for "non-store" (usually online) retail. The big question is whether it translates into decent sales at brick-and-mortar stores, whether via pick-ups of online orders, or strong in-store sales themselves.

And while the market was falling apart last week, we got a national report which indicated a consumer sector which still makes up the overwhelming majority of the US economy, started strong in the 4th Quarter.

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

In addition, October's consumer spending was revised up by nearly $22 billion, making a 0.6% increase jump to 0.8%.

The flip side is that income growth is mediocre. The $40 million increase last month was the lowest since April, and it was even more inflated because it included nearly $15 million in farm subsidies that is basically a transfer of tax dollars.

What that means is that personal saving continues to decline, below the rate that we had at the end of last year, before the GOP's Tax Scam was supposed to raise disposable incomes and savings rates. Instead, we are down to the lowest savings rates in nearly 6 years.

This is OK for now as long as job growth continues. But at 3.7% unemployment and a tanking stock market, how long are those things going to last? And how long are consumers going to keep spending like they have during this Holiday season?

That seems like the big question as to whether we officially fall into recession in 2019. Consumers can either spend more and save less, and possibly keep the economy afloat. Or the jobs start to be shed, people stop spending money due to unemployment concerns and their net worths plummeting, and it becomes 2007-08 all over again.

I'm not liking the odds of which outcome I think will happen. And neither is a good prospect for the long-term economy.