Election reflections pt. 2

A couple other reflections of Tuesday's election results (pt. 1 is here) -

The College kids are back.

I had mentioned previously that when some pundits looked at what to expect from the Wisconsin electorate, they weren't accounting for the fact that a lot of college students weren't on UW campuses in Fall 2020 due to the COVID pandemic. And I think that bore itself out in some of the results in Western and Central Wisconsin.

For example, the DCCC and other DC Dem groups wrote off the House race in Wisconsin's 3rd District, because they noticed that Donald Trump won that district by 4.5% in 2020, and because incumbent Rep. Ron Kind was stepping down. But with students back on campus in cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Stevens Point and Menomonie, it turned out that was a much more competitive race than the "experts" thought, as a UW-La Crosse Poli Sci professor pointed out.

There is simply no spinning this: Derrick Van Orden is underperforming expectations in #WI03. And plenty of Democrats are going to be furious at the party organizations and affiliated PACs for not giving Brad Pfaff some help in this one. pic.twitter.com/rvn9bvvRlk

— Anthony Chergosky (@achergosky) November 9, 2022

Got a feeling that Small-D VO is going to be one of the most endangered GOP reps in 2024, because you know that clown isn't going to be able to avoid saying and doing insane BS once he gets to DC. And Dems better be reminding the folks back in WI-03 about Van Orden's idiocy early and often.

I also think this effect showed itself in some State Legislative races that WisGOPs were thinking they could flip, after putting up good numbers in those parts of the state in 2020. But the weirdness of the COVID-affected election may have made the GOP be tricked by Fools' Gold there, and they lost key races that included UW college towns like Eau Claire (Senate District 31), Oshkosh (District 54), and Stevens Pojnt (District 71).

The other point that I want to discuss about the election results has some connection to the one above.

Dem dominance in Dane County continues to grow.

The fastest-growing county in Wisconsin is giving Dems a bigger advantage with each election. Not just by percentage, but in total votes.

That Dane County trend just keeps growing.

Madison gave Evers a 106,373 vote (74-pt) victory in 2022, compared to 97,099 (67-pt) in 2018. pic.twitter.com/Tv5xsdvK37

— John D. Johnson (@jdjmke) November 9, 2022

In the first Wisconsin gubernatorial race I covered in '02, there were 171,686 votes cast in Dane County overall.

Last night, @Tony4WI carried the county by 174,233 votes.

That's why Republicans keep calling me about their Dane County problem in statewide races.

— JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) November 9, 2022

As some Madison musicians might say, "pour that GOP misery down on me"....

I worked the polls just off of campus on Election Day, because I wanted to be in a spot to be in an area that included a lot of college students, to help them through the challenges that they may to deal with. A lot of those challenges have to do with having to register on the day of the election (either through being first-time voters, or because they have moved since they last voted), and in giving proof of their current, on-campus address. In my 7am-1pm shift, I saw a steady stream of new registrants from Gen Z, and I bet it added to what was an already-massive lead that Evers and Barnes enjoyed in Dane County.

Even top Republicans are now admitting they can't afford to get wiped out like they do in the "80 square miles surrounded by reality".

“I think that Dane County is a problem for us,” Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, told conservative radio host Jay Weber Thursday. “They had a presidential-level turnout and most of the rest of the state did not.”

Actually Robbin', we didn't. We just had the kids back in Buckyville, so Dane County was able to get back toward their 2018 share of the electorate.

Even though Vos admits the GOP is getting smoked, he and his WMC "business leader" allies don't seem to want to find out why no one wants to vote for them in Dane County. And I wouldn't expect them to even try to appeal to the many of us who choose to live in this great part of Wisconsin. So keep losing, guys.

The last thing I want to put together is how outstate turned out, and whether they continued the outsized portion of the electorate that they got in both 2016 and 2020, and whether either Evers or Barnes improved on Joe Biden's 42% share in those areas. But I'll wait for others to accumulate that data because I don't need to spend a ton of hours doing that, so I can't test my "dead rural voters" hypothesis at this time.

Lots more to sort through, but because things returned to (near) normal in 2022, I think this week's results give a better baseline to start our 2024 benchmarks than the 2020 elections did. Especially in looking at what happened in the 1-point win that Ron Johnson eked out vs Mandela Barnes, because there are still plenty of areas of the state Dems can improve in, but if GOPs continue to be Trumpy know-nothings, they're going to have a hard time clawing back with large and growing portions of the Wisconsin electorate.