Beginning in 2016, Wisconsin’s smaller and more rural counties have gotten redder and its bigger metropolitan counties have gotten bluer, reflecting a widening education gap, a widening gap between religious and secular voters, and a chasm between more densely populated places and less densely populated places..... Of the 15 counties that produced the most votes, 12 of them moved in a Democratic direction from the 2018 race for governor to the 2022 race for governor. Of the 40 counties that produced the fewest votes, 37 of them moved in a Republican direction. But the effects were not symmetrical. The vote shift in the 40 smaller counties produced a net Republican gain of about 17,000 votes over 2018. The vote shift in the 15 biggest counties produced a far larger net Democratic gain of about 87,000 votes. Most of this came from just three counties — the state’s largest: Milwaukee and Dane, which got bluer, and Waukesha, which got less red.That's the gamble Republicans made in embracing the MAGA-dom - that they could win more of the vote in the sticks to counteract Wisconsinites in other areas that got pissed off by MAGA BS. In the Governor's race, that strategy failed big-time. In fact, Evers did even better than Biden did in 2020 in the WOW Counties, and also in the key Fox Valley cluster of Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago Counties (aka the BOW Counties). But it's noteworthy that Barnes got 2% less than Evers in both of these areas, which is consistent with the 4.5% difference in margin between those two candidates.
And now Alberta Darling is retiring in an area of the Milwaukee suburbs that used to be big-time red, but has high levels of college-educated people and is moving rapidly toward parity between the two parties (especially the closer you get to Milwaukee).
I think a lot of folks may consider that to be the case, yes — it is also home to UW-Stout, so some elements of a college town. Fwiw, Politico had outdated/incorrect numbers for Dunn, so this is updated pic.twitter.com/ePCxz4tRmx— Ari Brown (@AriB83) November 10, 2022
Along with the State Supreme Court election, this State Senate election in April will be our next sign of data to see if the Trump-era shifts in Wisconsin are permanent, or if there are some vestiges of the Scott Walker electorate that still exists.
Tim Michels, who underperformed in the Milwaukee area suburbs, won this district with about 52% of the vote: https://t.co/2Vw7L9LFNw— Dan Shafer (@DanRShafer) November 23, 2022