Sum-Sufficient? Geeky budget talk on programs that keep costing more (or less), even if nothing is done

While the typical GOP gutting of Governor Evers' big budget initiatives is the big headline of the day, another budget move the Joint Finance Committee made was interesting and noteworthy to me. That was the approval of estimates to sum-sufficient appropriations as well as projected debt costs for the next budget.

I want to particularly discuss the sum-sufficients, which are programs, tax credits, and local assistance that requires all requested bills to be paid to qualified participants, and they have a base cost of more than $5 billion going into the 2023-25 budget. Under current law, before anything is voted on in the budget, there is a wide variation between some programs that are estimated to cost more in the upcoming budget, and some that will cost less.

You'll see the biggest sum-sufficient increases are to the K-12 voucher program (+$69.1 million), a Scott Walker-era move that took a Forestry mill tax away from property taxes, and pays for the difference in state dollars (+$47.5 million) and charter schools ($33.5 million). As a reminder, this is what the LFB says will be the additional cost that these programs will have, before any changes are put into the budget. The increase in vouchers is due to the higher cap instituted by WisGOPs several years ago, and the Forestry tax payment keeps going up as property values go up around the state, since it is a flat rate for all values.

Let's also note the declines in Enterprise Zones (-65.4 million), which seems to be related to many of the zones already either maxing out their credits and because few additional ones have been granted by the state in recent years. I also notice the significant decline in the state's subsidy for reinsurance ($30.2 million), which reflects more funding coming from DC to help pay for those high-cost insurance claims.

I also want to point out that the Homestead Credit is projected to decline even further under current law (-$14.7 million during the 2023-25 time period). And that's on top of a significant drop in Wisconsinites being able to use the write-off over the last decade, as WisGOPs have refused to raise income levels with inflation, and making many residents unable to take the credit.

Governor Evers asked to increase eligibility for both the state's EITC and Homestead Credits in his budget, and naturally WisGOPs included those ideas as part of the 545 items they removed from the budget today. JFC also removed a couple of Evers budget provisions that would extend the state's Veterans and Surviving Spouses Property Tax Credit to vets that are less than 100% disabled and to renters, but even with that, the Veterans/Surviving Spouses credit is projected to go up $14.3 million.

I'll add that Wisconsinites can't get both Homestead and the Vets/Suriving Spouses Credits, and I would bet a lot of those taking the Vets/Suriving Spouses credit could have had Homestead Credits in prior years, but have now blown past income limitations that have not changed for inflation.

Lastly, see that increase of $33.4 million in "Illinois tax reciprocity"? That's money Wisconsin sends to Illinois because Wisconsin residents make more money working in Illinois than Illinois residents do working in Wisconsin, and it's on top of $118 million a year that is the base amount set for 2023. Which tells a lot, both in how a lot of people with Illinois jobs choose to live in Wisconsin, and in how there's likely more money paid out with those Illinois jobs.

The sum-sufficients are a mundane type of budget provision, but I think it's good to know what programs are spending more (or less) on their own, and whether we should do something to stop these trends. The WisGOPs in the Legislature don't seem likely to do so, but with new maps likely looming for 2024, maybe they'll start paying more attention to these things. Especially if voters start paying more attention to them.