Big shifts in Wis voting continued in 2026, giving WisDems upper hand for now and future

If you just look at the red-blue county-level map of Wisconsin’s results in last week’s elections, and had no idea about population patterns of our state, you might think Republicans dominate here.

If you’re a dope, you might be confused as to why Democrats are going to run all parts of Wisconsin’s government when election results look like this. But it’s because of a simple rule - land doesn’t vote, people do.

And the people of Wisconsin are voting differently in this Trumpian era. Craig Gilbert went over the swings in our gubernatorial elections between 2014 and 2026 in today's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, starting with the 15 counties that cast the most votes in Wisconsin’s election last month.

This a list that includes the blue bastions of Milwaukee and Dane, the traditionally Republican “WOW” counties outside Milwaukee, the purple “BOW” counties of Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago, and a mix of others from blue La Crosse and Eau Claire in the west to purple Kenosha and Racine in the south to red Marathon in the north.

Collectively, Republican Gov. Scott Walker won these 15 counties by just under a point in 2014. Then Democrat Tony Evers won them by 9 points against Walker in 2018. Then Evers won them by 14 points against Tim Michels in 2022. And in this last election, Democrat David Crowley won them by 20 points against Tiffany.

That is a 21-point swing in the past three midterms, much bigger than the statewide swing of 14 points. Because these counties account for almost two-thirds of the Wisconsin electorate, the impact of this shift has been massive. These top 15 counties produced a net Democratic gain of almost 360,000 votes between 2014 and 2026.

Which means that Republican gains in rural counties that have happened in the Trump era are dwarfed by the Dem gains in the places most Wisconsinites live in.

….Republican Walker won the state’s smallest 40 counties in 2014 by a combined 11 points. Republican Tiffany won them in 2026 by even more – roughly 15 points. But these gains were less dramatic than the Democrats’ gains in big counties. And they involved a much smaller slice of the electorate. As a result, these 40 small counties produced a net gain for the GOP of about 35,000 votes between 2014 and 2026.

Measured this way, the Republican gains in small counties over the past three midterms have had one-tenth the electoral impact of the Democratic gains in big counties.

Oh? So actively being an anti-intellectual, anti-diversity and anti-city party isn’t working out for WisGOPs at the statewide level?

When you look at a map showing who will represent the state's 99 Assembly districts and 33 Senate districts, you will see some clear patterns.

Among other findings:

· Milwaukee County will now be almost completely represented by Democrats (The City of Franklin will have a GOP Assembly rep, but a Dem Senator).

· There is not one Republican state senator in almost all of the Madison media market.

· Districts that include cities and closest suburbs of Appleton, Oshkosh, Neenah and Green Bay are all blue.

· All but one college town with a 4-year UW campus will be represented by Democrats in the Assembly (Platteville is the exception).

Dan Shafer's Recombobulation Area also pointed me to Marquette professor John Johnson’s blog, which includes the Governor election's results in all 99 Legislative districts in Wisconsin. Johnson’s data shows that David Crowley won 54 in the Governor’s election, and 53 of those are now going to be represented by Democrats in the Assembly, while all 45 districts won by Tom Tiffany will be represented by Republicans.

The one exception? A district in the City of Waukesha where the Republican candidate won by 2.4% while Crowley was winning the district by 1.6%. Tony Evers lost that district by 17.8% in 2018, but cut that deficit to 6.6% in 2022. Seems like a place WisDems should make a note of, and target for the future.

And if the new-majority Dems in the Legislature choose to redraw the Congressional maps in this state (as they have hinted at doing), they should consider how votes are swinging in this state. More urban and educated areas seems to be increasingly Democratic, and understanding that may mean a small tweak could go a long way toward making some districts more competitive, as other areas in the state become less competitive.

Personally, I’d recommend a Congressional map of 2 solid Dem seats, 4 swingy seats, and 2 solid GOP seats. I think some of the Dems' gains in the last 8 years is due to the WisGOP gerrymandering and their associated arrogance, where Robbin' Vos and company felt they could ignore what the people wanted. So I tried drawing my own 2-4-2 map using Dave’s Redistricting, and here’s what I got, with Tony Evers’ 3-point win in 2022 as the base to draw the map out of.

And here's how these newly drawn districts would have voted in 2022's Governor's race (this program doesn't have 2026's numbers in there yet).

Sure, the 5th Congressional district was 55-44 GOP with the 2022 results. But I’ll add that David Crowley reached new highs for Dems in both the Milwaukee County suburbs and the WOW Counties, and that reality, combined with stretching the 5th into eastern Dane County, means much of the territory in this redrawn district is trending towards Democrats. I bet that 55-43 was more like 52-46 or 51-47 GOP on November 3, which makes for a fourth competitive district for 2028.

Now compare that with the current Congressional map from that same 2022 vote.

This current map just saw districts 1 and 3 flip to having Dem Representatives in an election where David Crowley won by 5% more than the election results shown here. Now combine that fact with districts 1,3, 5 and 8 being moved a few more points toward Dems with new maps, and you've got a combination of a relatively fair map in a neutral year with Dems being in great shape to hold 5 or 6 seats in 2028 if results are near 2026's.

Yes, I understand that one election does not mean a permanent realignment - just look at the GOPs who thought that Trump’s gains with Latinos and young bros in 2024 was something that would last into 2026. But the trends over the last dozen years in Wisconsin also cannot be ignored, where Republicans are losing the most populated and educated areas while making gains in lower-density, lower-educated places. That means Dems should have the advantage when it comes to statewide elections in the coming years.