GDP revised up for Q3, likely strong for Q4. Just in time for Trump/Musk to screw it up

We knew the US economy kept growing at a good pace in late Summer and early Fall. But it turns out it was going even better than we thought.

The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate.

Third-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product — the economy's output of goods and services — accelerated from the April-July rate of 3% and continued to look sturdy despite high interest rates, the Commerce Department said Thursday. GDP growth has now topped 2% in eight of the last nine quarters.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 3.7% pace, fastest since the first quarter of 2023 and an uptick from Commerce’s previous third-quarter estimate of 3.5%. Exports climbed 9.6%. Business investment grew a lackluster 0.8%, but investment in equipment expanded 10.8%. Spending and investment by the federal government jumped 8.9%, including a 13.9% surge in defense spending.

Even if you want to disregard the government aspect of GDP, and remove volatile inventory numbers as well, you'll see that Q3 had better underlying growth than either of the 2 quarters of the first half of 2024.

Combine the Q3 numbers with the strong consumer spending numbers from October and November, and we likely will see another good GDP number for Q4. The Atlanta Fed is currently estimating GDP to top 3% again to round out 2024, which would be the first time that happened since the post-COVID stimulus and recovery of 2021.

But now the incoming Trump/Musk Administration wants to end all that and cut government spending, funnel more money to the rich and away from everyday workers (who spend more of their increased incomes than rich people do), and impose tariffs that would likely lead to retailiations from other countries and cut our growth in exports.

If President Biden and DC Dems were alive, they'd be out in public pounding the reality that Trump/GOP are inheriting a very good economy that Republicans are likely to screw up in the next year. In addition to being true, it would plant the seed in the head of some low-info voters to have them notice when things start to turn downward in 2025, and lay the blame in the right place - on Republican politicians and their puppetmasters who made things worse.