Nov jobs report - More jobs, more wages, but more unemployed

It was another "Jobs Friday" this week, this time for November 2024. And on the payrolls side, it looks like a nice bounce-back from an October's report, which showed the effects of mid-October hurricanes and strikes, and previous months look better as well.

U.S. job creation bounced back in November after disruptions from storms and a major strike. The Labor Department reported on Friday that the economy added 227,000 jobs last month. Revisions to the prior two months added 56,000 jobs. nyti.ms/3Bjjdse

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— The New York Times (@nytimes.com) December 6, 2024 at 8:33 AM

Oh? Tell me more, Bureau of Labor Statistics!

Health care added 54,000 jobs in November, in line with the average monthly gain of 59,000 over the prior 12 months. In November, ambulatory health care services added 22,000 jobs, led by a gain of 16,000 in home health care services. Employment also increased in hospitals (+19,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+12,000).

Employment in leisure and hospitality trended up in November (+53,000), following little change in the prior month (+2,000). Over the month, employment trended up in food services and drinking places (+29,000). Leisure and hospitality had added an average of 21,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

The leisure and hospitality increases are a good sign for consumer spending, and the increase in health care jobs continues a main source of strength in the US job market, with nearly 1.4 million jobs added in the last 2 years.

However, the Washington Post's Catherine Rampell notes that November's household survey (which is where the unemployment rate is derived from) wasn't good at all.

Headline numbers look good -- as are payroll revisions! -- but some warning flags in this report: *Household measure of employment down (both from October, and a year ago) *Unemployment rate ticked up *The number of Americans unemployed for 6 months or longer is +441,000 YoY

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:12 AM

Markets also seems to read this as a relatively soft report. Yesterday odds of a December rate cut were ~71%; since the jobs report came out, odds have shot up to 87% www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...

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— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:25 AM

I find that rate cut optimism interesting, as hourly and weekly wages had solid increases for November.

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $35.61. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $30.57.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.

That's 2 straight months of average hourly wages going up by 0.4%, and 3 of the last 4, so the stagnation of the Spring seems to be over. The increase in the work week reversed a decline in October, and that means there should be enough funds should be available to translate into a solid Christmas shopping season, especially if some purchases are being accelerated to beat any Trump/GOP tariffs that might be coming in (raises hand).

We still are in a good spot overall in the jobs market, with hiring continuing in key areas and wage growth staying a good amount above inflation. But there are some warning signs in that 4.245% unemployment rate, and while I think the numbers might be good for the overall economy at the end of 2024, I can see where they aren't so good in 2025. And then what'll that do for the Bubbly stock market and the coked-up traders who think Donald Trump's are going to take the Biden-era prosperity to another level?

Unless those stupid hopes aren't related to a real economy, and instead based on grifting and rent-seeking, and that they'll be the Insiders that benefit from that? (Yep, that's likely what it is.)