Thursday, December 26, 2024

Wisconsin was best in the Midwest for econ growth and incomes in Q3!

Recently, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its estimates of personal income and economic growth by state for Q3 2024. And take a look at who's best in the Midwest for both categories!

To be fair, Wisconsin didn't have such great growth back in 2023, when we only grew by 1.4% on an annual rate compared to 2.9% for the nation as a whole. But 4.4% for Q3 2024 is well above the US growth rate of 3.1%, and over the last 12 months our real GDP has jumped by 4.8%. This has allowed us to catch up to states like Ohio, Indiana and Michigan, and closed quite a bit of the gap that we had with the rest of the nation.

On the income side, a big source of Wisconsin's best-in-the-Midwest growth for Q3 was in farm earnings (0.64% out of the 3.7% increase), manufacturing (+0.23% vs +0.05% in the US as a whole) and wholesaling (+0.25% vs +0.05% in the US) . It also was a nice rebound in income from a slow Q2 (+1.9% annual rate vs +3.7% rate in the US), and restores us to the above-trend levels in income growth that we had in the 2nd half of 2023.

Those standout numbers in income and GDP show more proof that Wisconsin's economy was on a strong trajectory ahead of the 2024 elections, and much like the state's jobs market, I'd recommend checking back this time next year to see if things stay on that path, or if the new Trump/GOP regime has knocked us off the right path.

Also, let's see if the good numbers for Wisconsin in the 2nd half of 2024 translate into higher-than-expected revenue numbers when the Legislative Fiscal Bureau makes its new estimates in 3-4 weeks. If that is indeed the case, then there will be more money to work with on new investments, possible needed reforms in how we can and do pay for things, and tax cuts. And we already are projected to have around $4 billion in the bank to begin with.

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