Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Walker will try sell to RNC an act that Wisconsinites are done with

As the rest of the country tunes into tonight’s GOP convention to see our fair Governor speak, Scott Walker might try to give an impression that he’s still liked back home, even as the rest of the GOP primary electorate laughed him out of the race in 10 weeks. And just he will in much of tonight’s speech, that impression will be false.

Take a look inside the crosstabs of last week’s Marquette Law School Poll, which had Walker’s approval and favorability remaining in the same sub-40% doldrums they’ve generally been in since he was ramping up his failed 2016 bid last year.

Scott Walker job approval 38.2-57.6
Scott Walker favorability 38.5-56.8

What’s remarkable about Walker’s approval numbers is how disliked he is in pretty anywhere outside of of GOP Bubble World. That goes for both his competence on the job, and the “have a beer with” favorability factor. Take a look at some of these demo numbers

Male 43.6-52.5 approve, 44.4-51.9 favorable
Female 33.2-62.4 approve, 33.0-61.4 favor

18-29 37.0-59.1 approve, 31.1-59.4 favor
30-44 32.3-64.3 approve, 33.0-66.4 favor
45-59 43.5-51.0 approve, 45.6-49.4 favor
60+ 37.0-59.8 approve, 38.3-57.9 favor

HS dropout 38.5-48.4 approve, 38.5-48.4 favor
HS grad 35.1-59.9 approve, 33.9-58.6 favor
Some college 40.7-56.4 approve, 41.4-56.4 favor
2-year degree 38.9-59.8 approve, 37.2-59.2 favor
4-year degree 39.1-57.7 approve, 41.9-57.0 favor

White 40.9-54.9 approve, 41.7-53.7 favor
Black 19.1-77.5 approve, 12.1-78.8 favor
Hispanic 34.0-59.1 approve, 31.4-60.3 favor
Other 21.5-78.5 approve, 21.5-78.5 favor

Geography by TV Market
City of Milw 15.5-79.4 approve, 12.0-85.2 favor
Rest of MKE 48.7-50.4 approve, 49.5-47.5 favor
Madison 31.6-59.8 approve, 31.2-61.8 favor
GB/Appleton 40.6-55.3 approve, 42.1-54.5 favor
Rest of state 38.6-58.7 approve, 37.1-55.7 favor

Political ID
GOP 80.0-17.7 approve, 80.6-16.3 favor
Dem 3.4-92.2 approve, 4.8-91.3 favor
Indy 38.5-56.5 approve, 38.1-55.9 favor

Conservative 68.9-26.0 approve, 71.1-25.4 favor
Moderate 29.3-67.3 approve, 27.6-68.4 favor
Liberal 8.5-88.7 approve, 9.3-85.6 favor

Good luck grabbing any swing voters or moderates with this guy. But then again, apparently that’s not who today’s GOP cares to talk to or to work for…just like anyone else that’s not a white conservative, come to think of it. And it’s been that way since right after Walker squeaked by in the 2014 election, put together a budget and policies that were more geared toward idiot GOP primary voters, and his near-even approval ratings nosedived to the place they have stayed ever since.

Walker’s approval trajectory is quite similar to another polarizing guy with Walker in his name, except that Scott Walker fell off the cliff faster after his re-election than even this guy.

George W. Bush average approval- Gallup poll
July 2004 48.0-48.3
July 2005 47.3-48.3
July 2006 39.0-56.7
July 2007 30.0-64.5

The comparisons don’t stop there, as Walker’s economic and budgetary performance is as failed as Dubya’s, with Walker carefully trying to get out of office before everything falls apart. And Scotty’s every bit the puppet of bad people, but without Dubya’s limited humanity and relatability (he’s more Nixon-like in that regard, without Nixon’s brains).

Also like Dubya in 2006, Scotty ain’t running again in the year ending in 8. He’ll likely be about as welcome alongside the Wisconsin GOP nominee for governor as Bush was with McCain during 2008. Which is why tonight’s speech will be all about trying impress the dopes inside the GOP Bubble to try to make a name for himself on the wingnut welfare circuit (where Dubya still gives speeches these days).

As Wisconsin media has noted this week, Walker’s been working behind the scenes to convince GOP oligarchs that last year’s complete failure of a campaign is in the past, and that they should get behind him for a 2020 campaign, (this assumes Drumpf loses, of course). Yes, this guy is that delusional, and the Wisconsin GOP is that delusional by not telling him “NO.”

That reason is why I bet you won’t hear Scott Walker say Donald Trump’s name in what is sure to be a hypocrisy filled, anti-Hillary Clinton speech tonight in Cleveland (do you really want to bring up the topic secret email servers and being untrustworthy, Scotty?). And his likely permanent collapse of support in Wisconsin also means that Scotty will likely say little about his own record back home, with anything he does say likely to be cherry-picked bullshit, if not flat-out lies. Those of us in the real Wisconsin know better.

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