MU Law Poll inconclusive for Nov, but offers hints

Well, looks like the Marquette Law School Poll is back, which gives our state media more time to talk incessantly over what they find.

In all, there isn't much to talk about in the summary numbers except for a few issue questions. There also is a giant red flag flashing right at the start, when you look at the demos the MU Law Poll reported.

In total sample, number of voters identifying as Democrats is down, as Democratic-leaners is up. @PollsAndVotes describes shifts, will keep an eye on trends as election approaches. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

54% of Republicans, 64% of Democrats, 46% of independents say they are very enthusiastic about voting. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

That doesn't seem to jibe with one another, and the contradictions are reflected in the Party ID being very different depending on whether you separate all "Independents" or use "Leaners" for either party.

This comes from the MU Poll's toplines.

Party ID, no leaners
Republican 27%
Democrat 25%
Independent 46%

Party ID, with leaners
Democrat 45%
Republican 41%
Independent 11.5%

In recent years, Party ID in adjusted exit polls have been around even to R +1 in midterms. And those were midterms where angry white make GOPs were more enthused about voting to stick it to the Black Man in the White House and other resentment BS.

That has changed drastically in the Age of Trump, as shown by the MU Law Poll's "enthusiasm" gap. And the "leaners" stat was the only thing that kept me from throwing the MU Poll in the trash as a Bradley Foundation production.

We continue.

Gov. Walker job rating: 47% approve, 47% disapprove. In June 2017, it was 48% and 48%. In March 2017, it was 45% approve, 48% disapprove. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

But digging into the crosstabs, Walker's approval is much worse among a few key groups.

30% Moderates
34% People Age 18-29
38% True Independents (no leaning for either party).

Not really the numbers of someone in good shape for re-election, is it?

Geography is also a big variant here, as it tends to be.

City of Milwaukee 24-66
Rest of Milwaukee media mkt 55-37
Madison media market 37-59
GB-Appleton media market 56-40
Rest of state 44-48

Guess the 920 is cool with all the polluted water runoff and paper mill layoffs (CMON GUYS!) Although that stat also makes Walker look extra stupid/scared for not filling the vacant State Senate seat in NE Wisconsin.


Lastly, I want to discuss the MU Law Poll's findings on Foxconn.

57% of voters statewide think Foxconn will substantially improve economy of the greater Milwaukee area, 35% think it will not. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

I hate the Fox-con, but even I assume it'll add something to the "Milwaukee area." The problem is that it's nowhere close to be worth blowing $4.5 BILLION IN TAX DOLLARS and reducing activity in the rest of the state.

The MU Law Poll did ask about that, albeit with a watered-down price tag of $3 billion and including the sketchy-at-best claim of "up to 13,000 jobs created."

New Marquette Law School Poll finds 49% think WI is paying more in incentives for Foxconn than project is worth. 38% think plant will provide at least as much value as state is paying. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

Strongest support of Foxconn is in Milwaukee area outside of the city of Milwaukee. Only region of the state with over 50% support of Foxconn subsidy. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

Wait, you mean to tell me that the Milwaukee suburbs and Racine/Kenosha, which have gotten nothing but pro-Foxconn propaganda in the local TV news and AM radio, back the Fox-con? SHOCKER!

Take those Bubble Worlders (who approve of the Fox-con by 52-40) out of the equation, and the Fox-con is overwhelmingly seen as more costly than it is worth. To the tune of 32% approval and 53% disapproval. , and no better than 37% ANYWHERE outside of the 262.

On a related note...

25% statewide say businesses where they live will benefit from Foxconn, 66% say their local businesses will not. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 5, 2018

Congressman Mark Pocan sure noticed it.

Poll shows people in every region of WI DO NOT think Foxconn will benefit a nearby business:

North/West - 74%
MSN - 72%
GB - 69%
MKE (city) - 57%
Rest of MKE - 58%

I bet @ScottWalker will run away from this deal.

Full breakdown here: https://t.co/1G1udJo0Fw

— Mark Pocan (@MarkPocan) March 5, 2018

Sure seems like Dems should play a little "divide and conquer" of their own against Walker and all the outstate GOPs that voted for the Fox-con (HINT!)

So while the Marquette Law Poll indicates there is not yet an obvious Blue Wave in Wisconsin for 2018, you can see how close we are to,having it develop. If pro-Dem groups of voters match their enthusiasm with actual increases turnout, and if some voters actually decide on issues like the Fox-con instead of pushing the "magic R", Scott Walker and WISGOP are going to have a hard time staying in power.