July jobs mixed in Wisconsin. Still feels maxed out, and different from pre-COVID

Late last week, the Wisconsin jobs report for July came out, and it presented a mixed bag.

Wisconsin Jobs Report July 2022
Payrolls Survey
All jobs +9,900
Private Sector Jobs +10,000

Household Survey
Labor Force -9,000
Employed -10,700
Unemployed +1,700
Unemployment rate +0.1% to 3.0%

3.0% unemployment is still a pretty good place to be, but it does seem like the state might be maxed out on the number of people who are available to get jobs. Both labor force and the number of Wisconsinites identifying as "employed" peaked in May and have fallen back to where they were at the end of 2021.

On the payrolls side, perhaps the data is catching up to the gains we saw in the household survey earlier in the year, as DWD reported that (seasonally adjusted) payrolls had been flat for the 4 months before July, while the household survey was saying more Sconnies had jobs.

Payrolls Survey
Feb-June 2022 +1,100
July 2022 +9,900
TOTAL CHANGE +11,000

Employed, Household Survey
Feb-May 2022 +10,400
June 2022 -6,600
July 2022 -10,700

TOTAL CHANGE -6,900

So which one is correct? Hard to tell, and complicating the matter is that July is a time of peak Summer tourism and other seasonal employment, so it throws off the "seasonally-adjusted" totals, since it is assumed that there will be more people working in Wisconsin in many industries in Summer than in Winter.

No better example of this than in the two main areas of the "Leisure and Hospitality" industries. Both industries have hired up thousands in the state in the last 4 months, but you can see where the seasonal adjustment deflates those numbers in the official jobs reports.

I view this as a good sign, as perhaps shortages are still getting filled, even though total employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector is still not back to what it was here (down 16,700 from January 2020). But that doesn't mean things are completely back to pre-COVID normal...or might ever be. These three stories in the past week were a bit alarming, with popular, well-known restaurants announcing that they would not carry on.

After nearly a quarter-century, Food Fight's fourth restaurant will be closing its doors for good soon.
https://t.co/6BzIEWhbqN

— NBC15 News (@nbc15_madison) August 17, 2022

After nearly a quarter-century, one of the Food Fight Restaurant Group’s first entries into the Madison dining scene is shutting down. On Wednesday, the company announced Eldorado Grill would be closing at the end of the month.

Food Fight CEO Caitlin Suemnicht attributed the company’s decision to shut down the Southwestern restaurant, which is located on the isthmus, to staffing shortages and customers not returning after the pandemic in the numbers they needed.

This one hurts. @BrasserieV, a landmark g the Madison beer scene for years, is closing for good next weekend. pic.twitter.com/CmNd3Heyfg

— Chris Drosner (@WIbeerbaron) August 20, 2022

Milwaukee restaurant the Brown Bottle in Schlitz Park closes https://t.co/Q34JEbvEdn

— TomDaykin (@TomDaykin) August 17, 2022

The Milwaukee Ale House to close in Septemberhttps://t.co/dk7QAjqLnQ

— Urban Milwaukee A&E (@UrbanMkeAE) August 16, 2022

Jim McCabe opened the brewpub in 1997. Known for its craft beer and elevated pub fare, Milwaukee Ale house is located along the Milwaukee River, at 233 N. Water St.

“Unfortunately, we lease this famous space, and the building owners have decided to go in a different direction. Our lease is expiring and our last day at this location will be September 11, 2022,” said a Facebook post uploaded Monday night.

News of the Milwaukee Ale House closing comes as a sale is pending for its parent company, Milwaukee Brewing Company. The asset disposition firm New Mill Capital is handling the sale of the production brewery at 1128 N. 9th St. inside The Forty Two complex, Urban Milwaukee previously reported. The Ale House and El Dorado closings are especially bad to me, as I have had plenty of good times in both places. But you'll note that "lack of demand" is often not listed as a main reason in these stories, but is instead some combination of landlord/rent concerns, lack of staffing, or a "changed environment" in the industry (more takeout, less in-house drinking, for example).

Those stories also indicate to me that that we're not done with post-COVID adjustments, especially in the service industries. Combine that with a state that seems to be at maximum employment given its current demographics, and it feels like we might be more in "maintain" rather than growth mode for a while.

That beats recession with large-scale job loss, and it's much better than we were at the start of 2021, but it also should make us recognize that attracting talent and younger workers through quality of life needs to be the next step in Wisconsin's economic strategy.