Thursday, December 17, 2015

Two more bad jobs reports for Wisconsin today

You knew the Walker Administration was scared about other jobs numbers that might hit the news today when they sent out the November Wisconsin jobs numbers around 9am this morning, instead of waiting for their typical release time around noon. And look at that crap they chose to emphasize in the report.
Place of residence data: A preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.2 percent in November 2015, its lowest point since March 2001, down from 4.3 percent in October 2015 (technically, down from 4.26% to 4.247%, but who's counting?). The 4.2 percent rate is below the national unemployment rate of 5.0 percent for the month and below the state's rate of 5.2 percent in November 2014. Additionally, the state's labor force participation rate of 67.8 percent in November outpaced the national rate of 62.5 percent by 5.3 percentage points.

Place of work data: Wisconsin added a statistically significant 33,400 private sector jobs and 29,900 total non-farm jobs from November 2014 to November 2015 (seasonally adjusted). Private sector job numbers for the month of October were revised up 1,500 to 16,600, marking October 2015 as the best month of net job growth dating back to April of 1992 and the best October since 1990. While the preliminary numbers show a loss of 3,800 private sector jobs from October 2015 to November 2015, it is not considered significant and is well within the margin of error.
Like how they snuck that in at the end? I'll repeat it for you if you stopped reading. WE LOST 3,800 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS IN NOVEMBER, which kind of seems important given that it was the NOVEMBER jobs report that was being released. And I like how the November number is given a caveat by the "best month of net job growth dating back to April of 1992" doesn't get the same treatment. Gee, wonder why that is...

And it wasn't just the 3,800 private sector jobs we lost. That same BLS report also says we lost 4,800 jobs overall in November, and that October's total jobs number was revised down by 5,200. Which means that we are down 10,000 total jobs from where we thought we were yesterday. In the U.S. jobs report for November, the October figure was revised UP by 27,000, and November jobs jumped by 211,000. So this blows the Walker jobs gap in Wisconsin much higher, by 14,000 total jobs compared to what we had in last month's report, and another 6,500 or so in the private sector. This now puts the total Walker jobs gap at over 99,000 private sector jobs and over 95,000 jobs overall.

Here's the scary part- this wasn't even the worst jobs report involving Wisconsin that was released today. That goes to the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages, which came out today and covered the June 2014-June 2015 time period. And as was foretold last month, the state doesn't look good when comparing our tepid job growth to the rest of the country, or even our Midwest neighbors.

Change in private sector jobs, June 2014-June 2015
U.S. +2.3%
Ind. +1.93%
Mich +1.85%
Minn +1.8%
Ill. +1.7%
Ohio +1.6%
Wis. +1.3%
Iowa +1.1%

That 1.3% figure placed Wisconsin 37th out of the 50 states for private sector job growth (our 1.0% total job growth was also "good" for 37th). Even worse, usually Walker-lenient John Schmid and Craig Gilbert weren't so nice in today's Journal-Sentinel when it came to discussing the state's standing during the Age of Fitzwalkerstan. Check out this part.
Wisconsin ranked 32nd in private-sector job growth among the 50 states in the five-year period that ended in June, new government figures show — a period that effectively encompasses the national hiring recovery since the last recession.

The Badger State increased private-sector jobs by 7.6% during the five-year turnaround, lagging behind the national rate of 11.2%. Wisconsin's ranking of 32nd also placed it behind nearby states in the Midwest: Michigan's job growth during the same stretch ranked 10th, Indiana 18th, Minnesota 20th, Ohio 24th, Iowa 30th and Illinois 31st.
And for those of you who are visually-inclined, here's the Journal-Sentinel's full list since June 2010.

So Wisconsin wasn't just falling further behind the curve in November- we were already way down before the last few months, largely due to the austerity, low-wage policies of the Walker/ WisGOP crew. Oh, and now property taxes are on their way up, and more budget cuts loom over the next 18 months due to the deficit-wracked state budget. Does anyone that's not on the Walker/Koch payroll truly believe this trickle-up BS is working for anyone else?

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