Sunday, August 18, 2019

The states Trump needs to win are falling far behind for jobs

On Friday, we got more evidence that whatever job growth we have left in this country is largely leaving the Midwest behind. That came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics state-by-state report, which came out on Friday and noted that of the 25 states that have had statistically significant job growth over the last 12 months, exactly ONE is in the Midwest.

That one Midwest state? The "failing state" of Illinois!, at just over 1%. Meanwhile, there are 5 states in the Rust Belt/Midwest that Democrat Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, but flipped to the GOP's Donald Trump in 2016. And all of them have seen their job growth stall out, especially compared to the rest of the nation.

Job growth, July 2018-July 2019
U.S. +1.51%
Iowa +0.64%
Penn +0.50%
Wis. +0.46%
Ohio +0.45%
Mich +0.40%

And all 5 of those states have either complete GOP control of government, or have gerrymandered GOP legislatures tying up any progressive moves to adjust those states' economies. Seems noteworthy.

UW economist Menzie Chinn followed up with this note at Econbrowser, which shows that the three closest states that Trump won in 2016 are all showing declines in manufacturing jobs in 2019. This is even while manufacturing jobs throughout the country have continued to grow (albeit at a slower pace) in 2019.

This is a story that Coastal corporate media doesn't see, but is quite obvious to us in the Heartland. And if Dems want to win big in 2020, they should hammer on Trump/GOP's economic policies, which might have made things better for the rich and corporate, but have left the Midwest even further behind the country than they were in 2016, when many rolled the dice with Trump to improve their stagnant lives.

That gamble's not really working out for those folks, is it? And it'll likely be worse by the time November 2020 rolls around, if 2019's declines in manufacturing and this week's drop in US consumer confidence is any indication.

1 comment:

  1. I noticed MN stats weren't available in this article but I did have an amazing tip for you to look at for fun. TA Jake's favorite hard core conservative website writer John Phelan is doing his best to twist the numbers as hard as he can... he's basically hanging onto his hard core "how horrible the MN job market is because it's too liberal theory" must be true. So his last stand article last week focuses entirely on one fact..."Minnesota unemployment claims up the most in the last year".

    So all the hard core conservative people out there need to believe it's true, but for us people who have an actual brain need only to look at the rest of the missing stats for July 2019 to see the truth:

    MN employment participation rate: 70.0 (highest in US last month followed by Nebraska at 69.8.
    MN Unfilled jobs (estimated 3rd highest)
    Population growth last estimated at .9 (only nearby state above .8% US average).
    So sarcastically...I wonder who's stats are right??

    Wouldn'tthe participation rate drop, number of available jobs drop or the number of people moving in drop if things were really as bad as John at the American Experiment so desperately wants us to believe?? Why does MN keep bringing in far more tax money each year than it expects?? Seems like there are definitely some screws missing in John's high quality, non misleading analysis, but I'll leave the final decision up to everyone to decide for themselves...