Support for impeachment has slipped in Wisconsin, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.That defied any kind of common sense, given recent events. So I immmediately went to the crosstabs for both October and November to see what might have changed.
And for the first time, President Donald Trump has surged ahead of all four top Democratic rivals in potential head-to-head matchups....
In head-to-head matchups, Trump led former Vice President Joe Biden by 47% to 44%, within the poll's margin of error. In August, Biden led the president by 51% to 42%.
"Call it a small advantage to Trump," Franklin said.
Trump led U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 48% to 45%, and had a lead of 48% to 43% over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
At first glance, there’s not necessarily a huge shift in the (self-described) ideological breakdown of the MU Poll from last month. But it still went further right than the last poll, and that was already out-of-whack with who voted in Wisconsin 4 years ago.
Ideology of those answering, MU Law Polls vs 2016 exit poll
You add 2.8% conservatives and pull away 2.4% of liberals from the electorate and Trump does better. I’m shocked, SHOCKED!
Which explains a lot, because when you look at the head-to-head matchups, moderates didn’t change much at all in their preference for president between the two Marquette polls, with the exception of Joe Biden, who morphed down into “generic Democrat” in this poll.
2020 potential presidential matchups, Marquette Poll
Oct 2019 Biden 61-33
Nov 2019 Biden 54-35
Oct 2019 Sanders 54-36
Nov 2019 Sanders 52-36
Oct 2019 Warren 52-38
Nov 2019 Warren 53-35
Oct 2019 Buttigieg 51-35
Nov 2019 Buttigieg 47-34
But it’s not just the weighting, as some of the preferences of certain groups make NO sense when given the sniff test. For example, after a month’s worth of stories about Trump corruption and meltdowns, are we to seriously believe that “True independents” are now switching to TRUMP in big numbers?
That doesn’t ring remotely true. Neither does this break down of alleged “liberals”, who were allegedly less likely to want to see Trump voted out after the last month.
Oct 2019 Biden 92-5
Nov 2019 Biden 83-7
Oct 2019 Sanders 94-3
Nov 2019 Sanders 91-8
Oct 2019 Warren 95-2
Nov 2019 Warren 85-10
Oct 2019 Buttigieg 89-4
Nov 2019 Buttigieg 79-10
Methinks Chuck Franklin got catfished by some righties thinking they were clever enough to hide what they really believed in when they were demographically screened. That's the nice version of what I think happened (the mean one is that he gave the Bradleys a result they wanted).
There’s one other finding that makes zero sense, and that involves the answers from ages 30-44. This is largely the Milennial generation that hates Trump, and many people in this age group voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But the November MU Poll says they have changed a lot in the last 3 years…and in the last month.
Age 30-44, Wisconsin
2016 exit poll Clinton 55-37
Oct 2019 Biden 53-44
Nov 2019 Biden 42-47
Oct 2019 Sanders 49-42
Nov 2019 Sanders 42-50
Oct 2019 Warren 47-42
Nov 2019 Warren\ 41-51
Oct 2019 Buttigieg 43-44
Nov 2019 Buttigieg 34-45
Does anyone honestly think that Milennials and Gen Xers under 45 have turned toward Donald Trump by 10-15 points in the last month? HELL NO. It's an absurd number, and even the MU Law Poll seemed to admit it, if you read between the lines.
The impeachment part of the MU Poll is equally absurd, but I'll get to that at a later point. I'll just say that the numbers that came out with today are literally unbelievable, and should be thrown in the trash. But that won't stop our lazy media from reporting a Trump "gain" that is highly unlikely to exist in the real world.