While energy leveled off, food prices rising more than ever. But inflation isn't recession

Today was the release of the widely awaited Consumer Price Index report for April, and depending on the writer, this report meant inflation was
1. Still strong
2. Waning; or
3. As bad as ever.

Or maybe all 3 at once. Check out the zigzags at the start of this story from Yahoo! Finance.

U.S. consumer prices rose at a slightly slower pace in April compared to March, though persistent supply-side disruptions still kept inflation near its highest level in 40 years. And core consumer prices rose more than anticipated even while decelerating compared to March, suggesting underlying inflationary trends across the economy remained hot.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.3% in April over last year, coming down from March's 8.5% advance. That rise had marked the fastest rate since 1981. Consensus economists were expecting an 8.1% increase in April, according to Bloomberg.

On a month-over-month basis, the broadest measure of CPI increased by 0.3%, compared to March's 1.2% rise.

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If you take a positive view, you'll point out that gas prices went down by (a seasonally-adjusted) 6.1% and energy prices by 2.7%, giving some needed relief after a long runup. And the 0.3% increase matches August's increase for the lowest level of 1-month inflation since most Americans were able to be fully vaccinated against COVID.

But the downside is that food prices continued its march higher, in many different areas, with an alarming increase over the last 12 months that we haven't seen since the month that Reagan got elected.

The food index increased 0.9 percent in April; this was its seventeenth consecutive monthly increase. The index for food at home rose 1.0 percent after rising 1.5 percent the prior month. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for dairy and related products rose 2.5 percent, its largest monthly increase since July 2007. The index for nonalcoholic beverages also rose sharply, increasing 2.0 percent over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.4 percent as the index for eggs increased 10.3 percent in April.

The food at home index rose 10.8 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1980. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 14.3 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979. The other major grocery store food group indexes also rose over the past year, with increases ranging from 7.8 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 11.0 percent (other food at home).

Food away from home (generally restaurants) is also up a lot in the last 12 months - 7.2%, and those rising costs are certainly items that everyday people notice.

Taking out food and energy, and prices were still up 0.6%, which is still a hot reading. And average hourly wages continued to lag the increase in prices. Sure, the gap wasn't as large as in previous months, but it still was there.

Now that being said, the lower levels of the wage scale actually did see some gains in April, with non-supervisory jobs surpassing inflation by 0.2%, for the fifth "beat" out of the last 10 months, although the losses have generally been larger than the gains.

So the better situation at the bottom of the wage scale might help explain why real spending has continued to rise, in spite of the higher prices. But it also reflects more Americans willing to use debt to keep on spending, as another economic report showed this week.

To keep up with rising prices, many consumers are leaning on their credit cards.

Credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to data released Tuesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Although balances fell slightly from where they stood at the end of 2021 following the peak holiday shopping season, they are expected to keep going up from here, according to researchers at the New York Fed.

“There’s a good chance that Americans’ total credit card balances will soon reach a new record high, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that occurred in 2020 and early 2021,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

And with interest rates going up, that could be a double-whammy as Americans try to pay that money back.

Yes, inflation is still a problem, and yes, it is still too high, even if it "moderated" a bit in April. But we're still gaining jobs and there's no indication that incomes or spending are slowing down. I just hope the Fed and the stock market doesn't become so inflation-obsessed that they shut down what is still a strong economy at or near full employment.