As usual, J Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ had great charts which broke down the votes in these two races. In the Senate race, the key to the 2.8% victory for Frostman came from his home area of Door County, which has overwhlemingly turned blue in the last 2 statewide races.
In Wisconsin, Democrats picked up State Senate District 1, based in the Door Peninsula. Trump took 56% in this district, though in April's court race, Rebecca Dallet (Dem-aligned) won it by 7%. Caleb Frostman (D) performed more like Dallet. #SD1 #wipolitics (h/t @PollsAndVotes) pic.twitter.com/KJ1DUmE1iL— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) June 13, 2018
Even though the Appleton eastern suburbs are a small part of the district, they have decent population. And these areas also went for Frostman.
CORRECTION. Calumet County.— JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) June 13, 2018
So now the REAL Outagamie County results, straight from the clerk's office:— JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) June 13, 2018
Dallet also won these areas in April, and if those areas and others around Appleton stay blue in November, there is little way Scott Walker to win a third term for governor. And don't think Scotty doesn't know it, which helps explain why he was in the area on Tuesday throwing out $60 million in WEDC funds to help a
Moving over to the Assembly race, the Republicans held onto the seat, with John Plumer beating Ann Groves Lloyd 53-45. As Coleman notes, this was still a 6 point shift to the Dems from November 2016, but it also removed about half of the gain Dallet got in April.
While losing #SD1, Republicans did manage to hold Assembly Seat 42, just north of Madison. This was Dallet's closest district; she carried it by 22 votes while winning overall by 11%. Trump carried it with 54.5%, and Jon Plumer (R) took 53% last night. #AD42 #wipolitics pic.twitter.com/Jt72mSZko2— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) June 13, 2018
You can see that Plumer held his own in Columbia County, actually edging out Lloyd overall, and then ran up the score in the absurdly red eastern part of the district to get the win. Which led to the following analysis from former GOP Rep. Joe Handrick.
But hey, that's just the way you drew it up, isn't it Joe? You know, when you and the GOP leadership went Off the Square and illegally gerrymandered the state in 2011?
Overall, it's another step forward for Dems and the "Blue Wave 2018" theme, which keeps some on the bandwagon, and encourages more to get on. There's still plenty of work to do in the next 5 months, but only having to flip 2 GOP seats to win the Senate is a lot better than having to flip 3 this Fall. And if even half of the shift to the Dems that we've seen in these special elections holds up, Scott Walker and any other GOP running statewide is in BIG trouble.
Lastly, never forget that the only reason these elections were happening this week is because Scott Walker wanted to cancel them entirely and had to be dragged to court to be forced to follow state law. These races would have happened at the same time as the Supreme Court race in April, at no extra expense to the local communities, had Scotty simply done his damn job and scheduled them when he hired the two GOP legislators that decided to cash in. But he chose not to.
Scotty pulled those shenanigans because Gov "Unintimidated" thought GOPs would lose and be in a weaker position for November, and in Senate District 1, he was proven correct. Those facts can't be allowed to slip down the memory hole for the next 21 weeks.