Incumbent Dem Senator Jeff Smith is running for re-election, and you figure GOPs will target this district hard in an attempt to grab a 2/3 majority in the Senate (they are 1 seat away right now). In addition, this district is entirely in the open 3rd Congressional seat being vacated by Ron Kind, which is one of the GOP's biggest targets as they try to get control of the House of Representatives. So big showdowns all over here. You look at recent history, and it seems likely that if one party or the other wins all 5 of these Senate seats in November, and/or wins all 5 of these districts at the top of the ticket, then that party will likely win all of the statewide races as well. And that's why both parties should be expected to compete fiercely in these areas in particular, in addition to driving up the base in their traditional strongholds. It also will go a long way toward asking which Trump-era change in voting habits will stick around for the rest of the 2020s - rural, northern and western parts of Wisconsin turning toward the GOP, or well-educated Milwaukee suburbs and medium-sized metros going to the Dems. If one trend remains and the other fades, expect that party to be the main winner of statewide elections in what is still a very purple state.
Republican legislators in Wisconsin are advancing a bill to prevent businesses from requiring proof of vaccination, in part because, according to State Rep. Treig Pronschinske, "if you can't see the virus ... how can you stop it? How? You physically cannot see the virus." pic.twitter.com/0ZW9RFhtYJ— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) January 12, 2022
Monday, April 25, 2022
How 5 Wis Senate districts tell the story of how the state has gone. And will go in Nov
I was going to follow up to my analysis of the changes the Supreme Court of Wisconsin did to the state Assembly map with a similar breakdown of the State Senate, but in the process of doing so, I came upon an even more intriguing observation, so I'm going to save the statewide breakdown of the Senate for later (bottom line - it heavily favors GOPs, even more than the Assembly). As the districts stand now, under GOP Gerrymander 2.0, there are 5 Senate districts that are close, lean Republican, but have trended in very different ways over the last decade. And how they trend in 2022 will likely tell us who wins both at the Senate level, and in the 2 big statewide elections of Govenor and Senator. I am also going to include Barack Obama's win in 2012 (as it's a good starting point to show where the trends change from), but ignore sizable wins by Scott Walker in 2014's Guv election and Tammy Baldwin double-digit re-election to the US Senate in 2018 Senate. The 5 districts are: District 5 - Milwaukee suburbs west of the City - Brookfield, Wauwatosa, New Berlin, and West Allis. District 17 - A huge amount of SW Wisconsin, going from Juneau County through Reedsburg, Richland Center and Dodgeville, and down to the Illinois state line with cities such as Plattevile and Monroe. District 19 - Neenah, Menasha, most of Appleton, and some of the countryside near those cities. District 25 - Most of NW Wisconsin - Superior, Ashland, Bayfield, Rice Lake, and Park Falls. District 31 - Eau Claire and a huge amount of Western Wisconsin going along the Mississippi River, from Trempealeau to River Falls/Prescott. District 5 is worth digging into for multiple reasons. The first is that it was the Senate district most affected by the Wisconsin Supreme Court's decision, as it went from a district that favored Dems by 9.8% in statewide elections between 2016 and 2020, to a district that favored Republicans by 9.8%. A big reason why is that the NW Side of the City of Milwaukee was taken out of the district, and it was replaced by more of Waukesha County. one of four Assembly Republicans who were flown to Arizona last Summer to "observe" the Cyber Ninjas' ansurd audit of ballots cast in the 2020 election. Those are the type of actions and candidates that will put District 19 into play in November, and Dems should fight hard there. By contrast, Dems are on defense in District 25, which has long been held by that party, but current Senator (and Dem Leader) Janet Bewley chose not to pursue another term. In addition, this district has turned hard toward Republicans in recent years, which gives you an idea of how the 715 has become much more red and Trumpy.
Posted by Jake formerly of the LP at 11:58:00 AM