With local Census figures redistricting looming, I noticed that the Dave's Redistricting site recently updated its data to 2019's population estimates. This not only includes the estimated changes in population between 2010 and 2019, but it also has the shapes of precincts that will be used in the 2020 Census. I'm not going to talk much about Wisconsin's Congressional map, as the only thing that matters there is how Ron Kind's district might look in Western Wisconsin, and if you want to include Janesville/Beloit in the Bryan Steil's district, or Mark Pocan's. Instead, we'll look at the State Legislative maps as they stand today, and compare them to what I drew up. Since I can't find a printed breakdown of the 2020 presidential results by legislative district, we will use the 2018 Governor's election, won by Tony Evers by 1.1%, so it makes for a good proxy of a 50-50 base. This post will go into the Assembly maps, but I'll follow up with another post on the Senate maps (there's a lot of info here). First, let's use the Daily Kos breakdown by Senate and Assembly district for the 2018 Governor's race as the starting point. Districts that were within 5 or 10 points should be considered at least mildly competitive. Now let's look at the current Assembly map.
Seats voting Walker (GOP) 63
Seats voting Evers (Dem) 36
Walker win 0-5% 5
Evers win 0-5% 1
Walker win 5%-10% 13
Evers win 5%-10% 2
Walker win 10%+ 45
Evers win 10%+ 33
Pretty good example of "packing and cracking", isn't it? In fact, the median seat in the 2018 Governor's race (District 55 in the Neenah-Menasha area), went to Walker by 8.75%. So Dems would have had to win by somewhere around 10% to be able to win a majority of districts, and a "neutral" year would result in GOPs holding the Assembly by a whopping 64-35 count.
Now here's the map I drew up. I generally tried to keep common communities together and wanted to make sure there was an adequate number of majority-minority districts, but generally tried to ignore which party these communities vote for.
Seats voting Walker (GOP) 58 (-5 vs current)
Seats voting Evers (Dem) 41 (+5)
Walker win 0-5% 6 (+1)
Evers win 0-5% 5 (+4)
Walker win 5%-10% 8 (-5)
Evers win 5%-10% 0 (-2)
Walker win 10%+ 44 (-1)
Evers win 10%+ 36 (+3)
You can see that while a neutral map still gives strong majorities to the GOP because there aren't any districts that they have which match the 80-90% numbers that Dems get in parts around Madison and Milwaukee, there are many more closer races - 11 decided by 5 points or less compared to 6 with the current maps. And it means that Dems would get the majority at a statewide total by winning by 7-8 instead of by 10, as the 50th seat in the Assembly is 2.2% less GOP than the current maps.
The biggest differences are in the Milwaukee area, where Robbin' Vos and company tried to get cute in 2010, and would combine districts in western Milwaukee County with Waukesha County, and northern Milwaukee County with Ozaukee County. Hilariously, this backfired by 2020 as the suburbs turned against Trumpism, and Dems now control 3 of these districts, but it's still a ridiculous map that throws together communities that have little in common.
the Dave's redistricting app to make up your own.